Pakistan production and market analysis

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Pakistan production and market analysis

- Pakistan is a country that assembles passenger cars (CKD) but does not produce them. In 2013, the country assembled 121 000 vehicles after a peak in 2007 (176 000 units). This decline in production is mainly due to the recession that hit the country after 2007 and the severe floodings of 2010. Pakistani auto plants are underutilized because the country's plants have a capacity of approximately 270 000 units (i.e. only 45% usage rate).


- In a country where the motorization rate is low (8 vehicles/1000 inhabitants in 2007), production is intended only for the local market. Importing very few vehicles (mostly sedans from segments D and E for businesses and administrations), we can hence consider that the annual market is equivalent to the annual production. Which ranks Pakistan in the 45th place world wide in terms of PC registrations. (behind Kuwait and before Morocco ) and 33th largest global producer ahead of Portugal and behind Uzbekistan.


- In 2013, the production of Pakistani PC was composed of 100% Japanese vehicles: Suzuki (55% of annual production), Toyota (in JV with Indus -  25%) and Honda (20%). Since the beginning of 2014, Hyundai has entered the market.


- In the first quarter of 2014, 8 models were produced:

       - 4 Suzuki: The Mehran (former Alto - segment A), Cultus (former Swift - segment B), the Bolan (Minivan) and the current Swift .

       - 2 Honda: The City (segment B) and Civic (segment C)

       - 1 Toyota: the Corolla (segment C) is the most produced and sold model in the country.

 


14-17-6  

 
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Changan is the Chinese manufacturer that has the highest growth in Q1 2014

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Changan is the Chinese manufacturer that has the highest growth in Q1 2014

- In the first quarter of 2014, Changan was the fourth largest vehicle seller  (PC + LCV) in China with 670 000 units sold, including brands produced in JV (Ford, Suzuki, Mazda and DS). At the 4th place behind SAIC (940 000) DFM (820 000) and FAW (798 000). The carmaker BAIC (535 000) is ranked behind Changan.

- These manufacturers have all increased their sales volumes compared to the first quarter of 2013, and will represent nearly 64% of Chinese market in 2014. FAW is the manufacturer that has gained the most market share during this period, from 12% in Q1 2013 to 14% in Q1 2014 but Changan experienced the strongest growth among the five. With +22% Changan is experiencing an increase more important than FAW (+18.6%), SAIC (+13.5%), BAIC (+13%) and DFM (+12%).

- In the first quarter of 2014, the top 10 vehicles sold by Changan accounted for 64% of the carmaker's global sales. In the Top 10, 7 models are sold under its own brand and 3 models under the Ford brand. The Ford Focus being the manufacturer's best seller.

- Throughout the year, Changan has announced plans to sell 2.5 million vehicles through JV, including one million units of its own brand. This is the first time Changan would reach one million units with its own brand (822 000 units in 2013).

- If the growth rate of Changan is confirmed in 2014, the manufacturer will consolidate its leading position as an independent brand and its fourth place as a  Chinese assembler behind SAIC, FAW and DFM.

 

14-17-7  

 
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The European plant utilisation rate by country (2005-2014)

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The European plant utilisation rate by country (2005-2014)

- The average rate of utilisation of plants in Europe (Europe at large: Europe 28 + Russia + Ukraine + Turkey) will likely reach 69% in 2014.
This estimate takes into account the results of the first three months of 2014 and does not take into consideration Bochum (Opel) and Genk (Ford) plants closure, which will take effect only in the fourth quarter of the year.


- Countries that have a utilisationrate higher than the overall average are Germany (93%), which continues to benefit from robust exports, Romania (86%) enjoying the success of the Dacia in Europe even if part of the production is progressively transferred to Morocco, Slovakia, which takes advantage of the ongoing transfer of the Peugeot 208 from France, Turkey (70%) due to the gradual arrival of the Renault Clio from France, and finally Great Britain (94%) which now has a rate close to Germany’s one (with production of vehicles which are exported worldwide: Nissan Qashqai, Nissan Juke, Nissan Note, Mini, Toyota Auris, Honda CRV, Jaguar and Land Rover).


- All other countries have an utilisation rate lower than the overall average of 69%, except France which maintains its rate to the European average, mainly due to the arrival in 2014 of the Renault Trafic and Nissan NV300 produced previously in Spain and Britain.


14-17-4  

 
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Ford launches its 4th LCV model : the Transit Courier

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Ford launches its 4th LCV model : the Transit Courier

- Ford launches its fourth LCV model for the global _ market: the Transit Courier. It is the smallest of Ford's newly consolidated LCV range (Transit Connect, Transit Custom and Transit).

- In Europe, the mini-LCV market is rather low and represents approximately 100 000 units per year. With a limited number of models, it should logically increase when the Courier manages to find its place alongside the Fiat Fiorino, Peugeot Bipper and Citroen Nemo. The Renault Bebop failed to establish itself in this market and is now almost extinct.

- The new Courier is based on the current Fiesta (like the B-Max which has the same platform). It competes with smaller LCVs of the European market (Fiat Fiorino, Peugeot Bipper, Citroen Nemo), but also on the North American market where it will also be sold. The passenger car version of the Courier will be called the Courier Tourneo .

- The new Courier will be manufactured in Turkey (Kocaeli) at a rate of 50 000 units per year, in the same plant where the Transit and the Transit Custom are manufactured for the European market. The manufacturing of the Transit in Belgium (Genk) and in England (Southampton) has in fact stopped in recent years.

- The production site of the Courier in North America has not yet been made official. 50 000 units could also be manufactured per year for the local market.


14-17-5  

 
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Fiat may give up the name Punto in 2016 in favor of 500 Plus

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Fiat may give up the name Punto in 2016 in favor of 500 Plus

- We had to wait a long time the decision of the Fiat-Chrysler group regarding the replacement or not of one of its best-selling model in the last twenty years, the Fiat Punto.

- More than 500,000 Puntos were sold per year between 1994 and 2001 (it was the best selling car in Europe in 1997), before experiencing an unstoppable decline from 2001 (110,000 units sold in 2013).

- The Fiat Punto, a model launched in 2005 and getting aged, has trouble to develop in a hyper competitive B segment face to other Fiat models (500, 500L) much more fashionable.

- Wishing to ride on the wave of  its favorite model “500”, Fiat could therefore give up the name Punto in favour of 500 Plus.
The 500 name would be a generic name for a family of models covering the A-B segments: sedans (500, 500 Plus), SUV (500 X) and MPVs (500L and 500L Living).

- Fiat will produce this new model in Poland, in Tichy plant where the Fiat 500 is currently assembled. The two other models produced by Fiat In Tichy, the Ford KA and the Lancia Ypsilon will achieve their lifesoon (Ford KA in 2016)

- Fiat plans to produce 180,000 units per year of the future 500 Plus, out of which 96% will be exported. The Punto is currently produced in Melfi, Italy and the plant capacity released will be assigned to the SUVs Jeep Renegade and Fiat 500X .

 

14-17-3  

 
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