New models manufactured in Europe in 2014 and 2015

In 2014 and 2015, European production of PCs (including Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) will reach, respectively 17.8 million units and 18.7 million units. In addition to the models produced at a standard pace , thirty new models launched each year in 2014 and 2015 will help in reaching the expected growth of 5%. It is therefore interesting to analyse which countries and which manufacturers launch these models, and in which body segments they will be manufactured.

Germany and Spain, with 7 new manufactured models are the two countries that will launch the largest number of new vehicles in 2014, slightly ahead of the Czech Republic (4 new models). Spain therefore confirms growth of its production, while the Czech Republic benefits from the renewal of Toyota Aygo/Peugeot 107/Citroën C1. In 2015, the UK will benefit from a good momentum with the launch of 8 new models. France will remain constant in 2014 and 2015, with the launch of two new models each year. However, the analysis of group nationality shows that Germany (VW-BMW-Daimler) and France (Renault-Nissan and PSA) remain the two main carmakers in Europe.

By group, Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan are the most dynamic while Fiat-Chrysler will keep a relatively low profile in 2014 and 2015 (2 new vehicles each year). It should be noted that PSA and GM have not planned any new vehicles in 2015.

By segment, in 2014 the C segment (10 new vehicles) and B segment (9 new vehicles) are the most present. Surprisingly, in 2015, it's inside segment D that most of the models will be launched (8 models from which 6 sedans) in a European market where mainstream manufacturers are increasingly abandoning this segment. By bodywork, despite the increase in SUVs and Crossovers, the first place is still held by sedans that will be the most produced bodywork in 2014 and 2015.

Finally, 2014 will see the restyling of many models (19 including 4 Audi, 3 Ford, 3 BMW and 3 VW) while the year 2015 will be rather weak (5 restyled models). 

 

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U.S. exports grew in 2013

While the US car market reached 15.6 million sales last year (levels close to those of 2007) and that US production has exceeded 11 million units (levels close to those of 2006), exports have also been growing constantly since the 2008-2009 crisis. 


For the first time in over 10 years theUSA exported more than 2 million vehicles in 2013 (PC+LCV). Starting at 1.06 million units in 2009 to over 2 million units in 2013. US exports have hence doubled in four years. These levels are still under those of Mexico (2.4 million vehicles exported in 2013).


Back in 2004, Mexico and Canada accounted for 80% of US exports, by 2013  this figure dropped to 50%.  Exports towards Germany and mainly Saudi Arabia and China are increasing rapidly. 


Over half of the 2 million vehicles exported from the US in 2013 originated from the Big Three (GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler). Followed by Japanese carmakers (500 000 units), European carmakers (300 000 units) and Korean carmakers (100 000 units).

 

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PSA is going to transfer the production of the next generation Citroën C3 to Slovakia

We saw last February (AutoAnalyses 2014-06) that PSA had decided to produce its B-segment models in countries with low cost labour such as in Eastern Europe.

Thus the Peugeot 208 are gradually being transferred from the French Poissy plant to the Slovak plant of Trnava. The initial 50/50 proportion is evolving in 2014 towards a 30/70 proportion, and could reach a 20/80 proportion in 2015.

This week, PSA has decided to pursue this relocation strategy by transferring the future Citroën C3 (launched in 2016) from Poissy to Trnava.

This transfer was made possible thanks to the decision to transfer the Citroën C3 Picasso from Trnava to the GM plant of Zaragoza, Spain. However, the production capacity of 300 000 vehicles per year in Trnava seems a bit tight if you add up the the production units of the Peugeot 208 and Citroen C3. Hence, it may be increased to 350 000 or 400 000 vehicles per year in 2016.

The Poissy plant will produce the Peugeot 208 premium and the future DS 3 (launch date : 2017) which will be available in 3 and 5 door versions, its production volume will be doubled compared to the current version. In short, Poissy could produce 200 000 cars per year in the coming years.

 

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Recent models launched in China in 2014 and 2015

The 2014 edition of the Beijing auto show was a great opportunity to review the models announced for the Chinese market in 2014, 2015 and even 2016 for some brands. Beyond concept cars, it is interesting to analyze which manufacturers are present, which segments and bodies have Chinese and non-Chinese carmakers  chosen to position themselves on, and especially by what date will these models be launched.


The first observation is that among the sixty "major and realistic" models announced at the show, 70% are from Chinese manufacturers although they currently account for "only" 30% of the local market. Ten non-Chinese brands are present while the number of Chinese brands is almost 3 times higher.


The second observation is that the most represented segments are segments C and D (21 models each) followed by segment B (11 models) in a current market dominated by C and D segments.


The Chinese market has had a sharp increase in SUV sales (19% market share in 2013). This trend has been confirmed by the models that will be launched in coming years, since a third of the cars presented are SUVs. It should be noted that non-Chinese manufacturers have planned to launch only SUVs and sedans, and will be launching no MPVs, Crossovers or Pick-ups.


Finally, a third of the vehicles presented will be launched on the Chinese market in the second half of 2014, while nearly 15 models will be introduced to the market in 2015 and 2016.

 

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German manufacturers are strengthening their positions in China

China is the largest trading partner of Germany in Asia, and Germany, the largest trading partner of China in Europe. In the automobile industry, Germany signed partnership agreements very early on (in the 80s) with Chinese manufacturers. Today, German carmakers (Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler) occupy 20.8% of the world's largest market, ahead of American carmakers (19.8%), Japanese (16.6%) and Korean (8.8%).


Chinese manufacturers hold 30% of the Chinese market, and this share has been stable for several years. In this context, Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler are to retain their strong position in this market, which on average increases by 10% each year.


Daimler recently bought 12% stake in BAIC and the two partners are going to increase the production capacity of their  Beijing plants.


Volkswagen and its partner SAIC are going to extend their cooperation to fuel cells and hybrid vehicles. Volkswagen is going to build a new plant with FAW another of its partners in order to increase their production capacities. Volkswagen has set a goal to acquire the necessary installations in order to produce more than 4 million vehicles a year in China by 2018. The group has produced and sold more than 3 million vehicles in the country in 2013.


In addition, an agreement has been signed in order strengthen the links between BMW and its partner Brilliance.

 

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