Which carmakers will benefit from the recovery of Southern European countries?
 
Over the 2010-2013 period, South European markets have weighed on the whole European market. Since last summer, these markets have been restarting steadily. We can expect the well established manufacturers of these markets to be able to relaunch their sales on these markets.

This means that in France, the two leaders of the French market Renault and PSA  could benefit from a relaunch of their sales.

In Italy, the Fiat group, the leader of the Italian market, could also benefit from a relaunch of its sales.

In Spain, the revival of the market should benefit the three current leaders: Volkswagen, PSA and Renault.

By adding up these three markets, we can see that the major beneficiaries of a recovery in sales in Southern Europe (even if it's moderate) are bound to be the traditional leaders, i.e. Renault, PSA, Fiat and Volkswagen.

On the rise for a dozen years on the entire European market, Premium carmakers  and Korean manufacturers may also benefit from this recovery.

The success of Ford, GM and Japanese carmakers in these three markets will depend on their ability to offer products that stand out from the competition in a market where sales volume of general carmakers are falling.


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Korean carmakers in China
 

Hyundai-Kia group is by far the Korean group with the largest presence in China, both in terms of production and sales.
Samsung models from the Renault-Nissan group, produced in Korea, are indeed sold in small quantities under the French brand Renault. On its side, Ssangyong exports only small numbers of vehicles from Korea.


Hyundai is the third brand produced and sold in China, behind Volkswagen and GM-Wuling. It produces locally  its model under a Joint-Venture with  “Beijing Automotive”. The graphs representing the production of Hyundai in China highlight that the first Korean brand has benefited from the temporary disaffection of Japanese brands in this market between August 2012 and August 2013.


Hyundai growth has stopped in September 2013 (zero growth compared to September 2012).
It had already slowed down in the previous months at a time when Japanese brands began to reach their 2011 level.


The same observation can be made about the Kia brand, second Korean brand and twelfth brand produced and sold in China. Its growth was reduced between July and September 2013 and September growth was almost zero (compared to September 2012). Kia produces locally in China under a Joint-Venture with Dongfeng


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Fiat Panda is not anymore the unrivaled leader of A Segment in Europe
 

The A segment (composed of urban cars) accounted for 10%  of European market in 2012. It reached a peak in 2009 ( pushed  by scrapping bonuses).


The Fiat Panda, first in its segment, experienced a significant slowdown of its sales, after increasing between 2004 and 2010 (increase pushed by  scrapping  bonuses.) Italy , which represents the first market of the Panda, has indeed collapsed since 2010 (it lost 35% of its volume between 2009 and 2012). The Fiat 500, launched in 2007, has also competed with Panda. It is positioned at the second place in the A segment in 2012.


The Volkswagen Up, launched in 2011, took in 2012 the third place, ahead of the Renault Twingo(fourth), which was the first between 2000 and 2003. This model is at the end of its life cycle and will be replaced in 2014.


In fifth position, the Smart Fortwo achieves a honourable score given its positioning and price. It is ahead of the trio PSA-Toyota, Aygo, 107 and C1, which will be replaced in 2014.


Korean cars are not well placed (Hyundai i10: Eighth, Chevrolet Spark: eleventh, Kia Picanto: twelfth), but Hyundai has high expectations for the new i10. The model has been launched on the European market and production has just started in Turkey, place of production which comes closer to the European market.


-Ford Ka (tenth) never convinced and will be withdrawn from the market in 2015.


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Korean carmakers in the USA
 
Korean brands Hyundai and Kia have located assembly plants in the United States in 2005 and 2010 respectively. They followed the strategy of Japanese brands that set up their plants in the USA in the 80’s. The objectives were to  both reduce the volume of exports from Japan and take advantage of a local presence to increase sales in this market, one of the first in the world.

The first Hyundai plant was set up  in Montgomery AL in 2005 (models produced: Sonata, Elantra) and the second in West Point GA in 2006 (model produced: Santa Fe). In 2010, Kia arrived on the site of West Point (models produced: Sorento, Optima, alongside the Santa Fe).

Production of the two plants has increased from 90,000 units in 2005 to 250,000 in 2007, 450,000 in 2010, 610,000 in 2011 and 720,000 in 2012, an increase of 700 % in seven years. This strong growth is ongoing. Inovev plans a 850,000 units production in 2013.

The production of both plants is sold in North America, but mainly in the United States. In 2013 , Hyundai and Kia will sell between 1.2 million and 1.3 million vehicles in the United States. There is therefore still a real possibility that the local production of both brands increases in the country over the coming years.


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The Japanese carmakers have not caught up yet their production volume in China
 
The Japanese carmakers production  in China is growing again. However Japanese carmakers have not caught up yet the production volume  that they lost following  the diplomatic dispute between China and Japan regarding the China sea islands called Enkaku by Japanese and Diaoyu by Chinese.

According to Inovev estimates, Japanese carmakers will produce in China in 2013 at total between 2.7 and 2.8 million vehicles, barely the level recorded in 2010. The peak of production was reached in 2011 (2.9 million).

In the last months of 2013, Japanese carmakers have however gradually caught up their production volume. In September 2013 they reached their level of September 2011. The comparison between the  April and May months of 2013 and the April and May months of 2011 is not relevant due to the consequences of the tsunami in Japan in March 2011.

However, the analysis by carmaker shows a dissimilar situation. Nissan and Honda have already exceeded their 2011 production level  several months ago, while Toyota and Mazda currently remain below their level of production of 2011.

It has taken a year for two Japanese carmakers to recover the production level they had  before the diplomatic crisis, and it will take probably several months before the other two carmakers can return to that level.


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