The Japanese market has recovered well in the first half of 2014

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The Japanese market has recovered well in the first half of 2014

- The Japanese market has recovered well in the first half of 2014 (+10.8%), after a year 2013 where sales remained stable at 5.37 million vehicles (PC + LCV), compared to 2012.


- The 2012 and 2013 figures are much higher than those of 2011, the year of the tsunami (4 210 000 units). Sale figures are however still far off those recorded between 1988 and 1997. Figures that were largely over 6 million annual units, while in 2014 it is unlikely that the market will exceed 5.8 million units.


- In April 2014, the Japanese government implemented new tax deductions on vehicles that were compliant with the 2015 consumption standards which boosted the sales of these environmentally friendly vehicles.


- By manufacturer, Honda increased the most in the first half of 2014 compared to the first half of 2013, with a 30% increase in sales, followed by Isuzu (+22%), ahead of Suzuki (+12%) that was slightly in front of Nissan (+11 %). Only Subaru declined year over year with a decrease of 8%. In the first 6 months of 2014  Imports of foreign cars grew by 8%, but they still represent  under 5% of the market, which is a very low rate compared to  that of Europe where imports represented 15% of the market in the first 6 months of 2014 or the United States that imports 25% of its vehicles. Finally, midgets (Kei cars) represent 41% of total market in 2014 against 39% in 2013.

 

14-23-4  


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Comparison between Volkswagen and Fiat-Chrysler groups

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Comparison between Volkswagen and Fiat-Chrysler groups

- Some rumours expect a future purchase of the Fiat-Chrysler group (7th worldwide manufacturer) by the Volkswagen group (3rd worldwide manufacturer) . It is interesting to see in what way the two groups are complementary or not.

- The Volkswagen Group is well established in Europe (25% market share) and China (20% of the market), where its is the leader, while the FCA group is very low in both these markets (except in Italy, where it covers 30% of the market). The FCA group is very well established in North America (12.5% market share) where the VW group is low. In terms of overall sales this merger would mean that the VW-FCA Group would have 16% of the world market with 14 million vehicles and would thus become the world leader.

- By region, this merger would mean that VW-FCA is the leader in Brazil with 66% market share, the leader in Europe with a 31% market share, the leader in China with 17% market share. It would also have 13% market share in the US (3rd position).

- This merger positions the group on all segments as FCA is mostly present on segments A and B and Volkswagen is present on segments B, C, D, E and F (world leader in segments C and D).

- In terms of breakdown by make, the Volkswagen Group has mainstream  (VW, Seat, Skoda) and premium makes (Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini). The FCA group has mainstream (Fiat, Dodge), semi-premium (Chrysler, Jeep) and premium makes (Alfa, Lancia, Maserati, Ferrari). Overall, there is a real complementarity between these two groups.
 

14-23-5  


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The Chinese market remains strong in the the first half of 2014

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The Chinese market remains strong in the the first half of 2014

- The Chinese market (PC + LCV) remains strong in the first half of 2014, since it increased by 8.4% over this period, reaching 11.68 million vehicles, against 10.78 million recorded in the first half of 2013.

- Since 2011, the growth pattern seems to be accelerating, since it was only 2.7% in 2011 compared to 2010, 4.2% in 2012 compared to 2011, 6.1% in 2013 compared to 2012 and will probably be of 7.5% throughout 2014 compared to 2013. The year should end with a level close to 22 million vehicles sold in China, which represent more than a quarter of world wide sales.

- There now are no signs of slowing down or of a future slowdown (until 2020) of the Chinese automobile market . Car ownership is still very low, especially in western provinces of the country, that registered more important growth than eastern provinces.

- By manufacturer, Ford increased the most over the  six aggregate months of 2014 (+39%), followed by PSA (+27.5%), Volkswagen (+18%), Honda (+17%), Changan (+ 16%) and GM (+12.5%). Declining carmakers are all independent ones: Geely (-27.5%), Brilliance (-26.5%), FAW (-26%), JAC (-21.5%), BYD (-20.5% ), Lifan (-12.5%), Chery (-11%), Great Wall (-6%) and MG-Roewe (-3%). The objectives set by the Chinese government are very far from being reached.
 

14-23-3  


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The U.S. market kept its momentum in the first half of 2014

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The U.S. market kept its momentum in the first half of 2014

- The U.S. market kept its momentum in the first half of 2014, after rising by 7.6% in 2013, by 13.4% in 2012 by 10.3% in 2011 and by 11.1% in 2010. Let us recall that the market declined by 18.0% in 2008 and by 21.2% in 2009. As a result, in 2013 the market had almost caught up with its loss. Only a gap of -3.5% remained compared to the market in 2007.


- This gap is being absorbed in 2014, since the U.S. market was up 4.3% in the first half of this year, compared to the first half of last year. It is likely to reach a volume of 16.3 million vehicles registered throughout the year, against 16.2 million in 2007.


- Although the revival of the U.S. economy has affected sales, market growth is also a consequence of the many discounts granted by dealers.


- In the first half of 2014, the manufacturers that increase the most were Renault-Nissan (+13%), Fiat-Chrysler (+12%) and Tata Motors (+12%). But compared to 2007, the manufacturers that increased the most are Subaru (+154%), Hyundai-Kia (+71%), Volkswagen (+61%), Daimler (+33%) and Renault-Nissan (+32%). In contrast, the  manufacturers that experienced the strongest decline are Suzuki (-100%), Volvo (-45%), Mitsubishi (-39%) and GM (-23%).

 

14-23-2  


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PSA has announced the construction of a 5th plant in China

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PSA has announced the construction of a 5th plant in China

- In 2014, PSA’s production of passenger cars in China is expected to reach 700 000 units. This production is spread over 4 plants: 3 plants in JV with Dongfeng for a capacity of 750 000 units and 1 plant with Changan with a capacity of 200 000 units. Therefore the utilization rate of the PSA-DFM plant reached almost 74% and with an expected growth rate announced by PSA of almost 20% per year in future years, current production capacity will be saturated by 2016.


- This is the reason why PSA and Dongfeng announced the construction of a fourth plant, which will be PSA’s 5th plant in China. The plant, will have a capacity of 250 000 units and will be located in Chengdu,  production should start towards the end of 2016.


- The vehicles manufactured in the future plant have not yet been announced but they will probably be SUVs and MPVs from the Citroën, Peugeot and Fengshen brands (the DS brand being exclusively produced by Changan). We can therefore assume that the future Citroen SUV from segment B the CX-R (scheduled for 2015), will be one of the models produced in Chengdu.


- In the first six months of 2014, PSA produced 355 000 passenger cars, which ranks it the 9th largest producer in China, behind Honda (416 000 units) and Ford (398 000 units). Despite its growth, the position of PSA should not change in the next five years as Honda (+16% in 2014) and Ford (+40% in 2014) have also experienced strong growth. Ford, however, could overtake Honda before 2020.

 

14-22-10  


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  1. The European market is recovering in the 1st half of 2014
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  4. Construction of two new VW plants in China
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