Which European countries were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
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Which European countries were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
- European automobile production (29 countries) fell by 30% over the 10 months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019. The decline reached 31.1% for passenger cars, while it is lower for light utility vehicles (-24.8%). This last figure should be compared with -23.7% of LUV sales in Europe over the first nine months of 2020.
- Regarding passenger cars, the 29.3% drop in the European passenger car market indicates that in-stock sales and lower exports played a role in the European production volume decline.
- France is the most affected European country by the drop in production (-47%), because in addition to the consequences of the spring 2020 lock down, France has suffered greatly from the transfer to Spain of the Peugeot 2008, the transfer of the Renault Clio in Slovenia, the transfer of the Peugeot 208 to Slovakia and the transfer of the Opel Grandland to Germany. Relocation therefore amplified the phenomenon of the French declining production. In addition, the Peugeot 308 and Renault Kangoo are at the end of their commercial career, with their replacement scheduled for 2021. As a result, France has fallen behind the Czech Republic in 2020.
- Britain (-36%) continues to suffer from Brexit uncertainty. Austria recorded a decrease of 32% but on small volumes. Germany shows a decline of 31% comparable to Europe as a whole. Spain (-25%) and Italy (-25%) benefit from the arrival of new models in their factories (Peugeot 2008 in Spain and Jeep Compass in Italy). Belgium (-1%) achieved the best performance thanks to good sales performance of Volvo XC40 and Audi E-Tron, but also on small volumes.
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The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2030. What consequences for the market of new cars?
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The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engines from 2030. What consequences for the market of new cars?
- The UK plans to ban the sale of new cars with combustion engine as early as 2030, five years ahead of the previously deadline announced. This ban would apply to gasoline and diesel cars, followed by hybrids and plug-in hybrids five years later, in 2035.
- The UK car market over ten months 2020 is made up as follows: 1,384,601 cars including 100,160 HEV, 75,325 BEV and 44,046 PHEV representing a proportion of 16% xEVsand 84% petrol and diesel engines (1,165 070 units). British car production, which reached 780,000 cars in 10 months of 2020, produced only 125,000 hybrid and electric cars, accounting for 16% of all car production in the country. We can see that the proportion of cars with thermal engines is largely the majority in the country and that it will not be easy to replace all these cars with electric cars in ten or fifteen years, in terms of sales or production.
- The British car park is currently composed of 31.8 million cars of which 18.8 million run on gasoline and 12.3 million on diesel. The remains (685,000 units) is made up of hybrid (515,000 units), plug-in hybrids (80,000 units) and electric (90,000 units) cars.
- The United Kingdom has announced a change to this calendar, going from 2035 to 2030, after announcing last February that it was going from 2040 to 2035. So in 9 months, the calendar has accelerated by 5 years….and consequently raises doubts about the reliability of this calendar.
- Nevertheless, if this schedule is confirmed, there is a strong risk that the market will fall very sharply for at least 3-4 years after 2030. Indeed, if the ban on sales of combustion vehicles is applied but that at the same time, owners of thermal cars will be able to continue to circulate, it can be expected that buyers (professionals or individuals) will anticipate purchases of thermal vehicles before 2030 or delay the replacement of their existing vehicles to a period beyond of 2030. This could be even more true if the conditions for a real growth of the BEV market are not met by 2030 (numerous recharging infrastructure + purchase price of electric vehicles equivalent to thermal vehicles).
- Are we going to a sharp decline of the UK market in 2030? The example of the Norwegian market (end of sales of thermal vehicles in 2025) will be interesting to analyse, even though the Norwegian market is already today at 50% in BEV and 70% in BEV + PHEV.
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A tax on vehicles of 1 800 kg and more in Europe? Who would be concerned? (1/2)
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A tax on vehicles of 1 800 kg and more in Europe? Who would be concerned? (1/2)
- In France, in the week of November 16, a law was adopted by the National Assembly on a tax related to the mass of passenger cars. From January 1, 2022, any new passenger car registered in France, whose “mass in running order” is greater than 1,800 kg will be subject to a tax of 10 Euros per additional kilogram.
- The “mass in running order” adopted is defined by the EU Regulation N° 1230/2012 and takes into account the mass of the vehicle whose fuel tank(s) are filled to at least 90% of their capacities, the mass of the driver (75 kg) and fitted with standard equipment in accordance with the carmaker’s specifications.
- Vehicles with an all-electric range in town over 50 kilometres, meaning now battery electric vehicles, as well as plug-in hybrids are not affected by this measure. Reductions are also provided, in particular for households with at least three children or when the vehicle, acquired by a company or a legal person, has at least eight seats.
- Thus defined, Inovevanalyzed for France, which vehicles would be under this law and consequently their sales and production volumes. Therefore it appears that 3% of thermal and non plug-in hybrid passenger cars sold in France would be covered by this law (based on 2019 sales of passenger cars in France), i.e. a market of around 70,000 units. This is a maximum envelope, not taking into account the specificity of the vehicles (5 or 7 seats), nor the characteristics of the buyers (household of 5 or not). The majority of these vehicles are sold by Mercedes, Volvo and Audi.
- On the production side, this law does not impact the automotive industry located in France, as a maximum of 1% of vehicles weighing over 1 800 kg (or +1 725 kg without the driver's mass) are assembled in French plants. These are essentially light utility vehicles such as Renault Trafic or Peugeot Expert, produced in passenger transport versions. And among these vehicles, a large part is acquired by companies, therefore not subject to the law. In other words, the mass tax does not impact the French automobile industry.
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The average weight of passenger cars has not increased in Europe since 2011
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The average weight of passenger cars has not increased in Europe since 2011
- The average weight of passenger cars produced in Europe has not changed since 2011, when it had increased significantly between 1990 and 2010, from 1,020 kg to 1,380 kg. Inovev wondered why this average weight of vehicles produced in Europe had not changed since 2011 and had suddenly stabilized since that date. Indeed, with the arrival of SUVs in the 2000s which now represent 30% of European production, we could have expected an increase in the average weight of vehicles, knowing that SUVs are heavier than sedans of the same segment.
- In fact, several factors played at the same time and contributed to the stabilization of the average weight.
1. Sales of sedans and minivans have fallen sharply over the past thirty years, representing only 48% of European production in 2019 and the average weight of a sedan is today 1,256 kilos against 1,296 kilos in 2011 .
2. SUV sales have grown significantly over the past twenty years, representing 30% of European production in 2019. But the average weight of an SUV is today 1,545 kilos compared to 1,685 kilos in 2011, thanks to the arrival of B-segment SUVs.
3. But the most decisive factor is the shift from buyers of higher-segment sedans to lower-segment SUVs. For example from D-segment sedans to C-segment SUVs, which stabilized the average weight at the demand level. This seems logical since the price of a C-segment SUV is in the same range of the price of a D-segment sedan.
4. Finally and at a second level, sales of electric cars have increased over the past five years, but their production volume, which remains low (267,000 units in 2019 out of nearly 20 million vehicles, all engines combined) has no impact. The average weight of a BEV today is 1,557 kilograms, whereas there were no electric cars in 2011.
- For more information, Inovev has conducted a complete study of the evolution of vehicles mass in the European production. Please contact us for more information.
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A tax on vehicles of 1 800 kg and more in Europe? Who would be concerned? (2/2)
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A tax on vehicles of 1 800 kg and more in Europe? Who would be concerned? (2/2)
- Now imagine that this law is transposed at European level as part of an hypothetical (but plausible) project for a European tax on heavy passenger cars. What would be in this case, the vehicles concerned, their sales and production volumes?
- If we keep the same definitions and criteria used for the law in France, the analysis shows that around 8% of the European market for thermal and non-plug-in hybrid passenger cars would be impacted by such a law, i.e. nearly 1.3 million vehicles. Which carmakers sell these vehicles? The vast majority (65% of the +1 800 kg market) is sold by the brands Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, Land Rover and VW. The VW group (VW, Audi, Skoda, Seat, Porsche, Bentley, etc.) alone sells a third of passenger cars in this weight range.
- Of these 1.3 million vehicles sold in Europe, 28% are produced in Germany, which is the largest contributor in this market. Next come imported vehicles (by European or non-European carmakers) which represent 23% of sales. At a second level, we find Great Britain (12%) and Sweden (9%). As we have seen in the previous pages, France produces very few vehicles over 1,800 kg (1% of this market).
- Finally, these vehicles weighing over 1,800 kg produced in Europe for the European market represent 8% of all thermal vehicles produced in Europe for the European market (ie nearly one million vehicles). It should be noted that around 1 million vehicles over 1,800 kg are also produced in Europe but exported outside Europe.
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