Japanese production down 24.3% over 9 months 2020
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Japanese production down 24.3% over 9 months 2020
- While European production is down 30.1% over the nine months of 2020 (compared to the same period of 2019), and American production is down 23.2%, the Japanese automobile production (passenger and light utility vehicles) recorded a drop of 24.3% over this period, a level equivalent to that recorded in the United States.
- Japanese production returned to its pre-crisis level only from September 2020. At this rate, 2020 could end with a drop of around 20% compared to 2019. In volume, this drop would represent a loss of 2.5 million vehicles over the whole year.
- Which carmakers have managed better? Suzuki is the carmaker with the less production decrease in Japan in 2020 (-18%). Subaru is down 20%, Honda 21% and Toyota 23%. However, Toyota remains the leader in Japan with a production of 2.67 million vehicles over the cumulative nine months of 2020, representing a 48% share of the Japanese production, carried out under four different brands: Toyota, Daihatsu, Lexus and Hino.
- The largest production drops recorded on Japanese territory in 2020 were recorded by Isuzu (the smallest of the Japanese carmakers), Mazda and especially Renault-Nissan (represented in the country by Nissan, Mitsubishi and Infiniti) which saw its production drop by 36%. This poor result, added to what we observed in the United States, suggests a historic decline for the Renault-Nissan group in 2020.
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US production down 23.2% over 9 months 2020
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US production down 23.2% over 9 months 2020
- While European production shows a decrease of 30.1% over the nine months of 2020 (compared to the same period of 2019), automobile production (passenger and light utility vehicles) in the United States has suffered less from the coronavirus crisis and the decline in international markets (the United States exports fewer vehicles than Europe), since it only fell by 23.2%, which is certainly considerable, but less than what could be expected initially. The United States has lost two million vehicles in production while Europe has lost four million.
- September 2020 has returned to the level of 2019 and 2018, which let us think that the American production will stabilise in the last three months of the year. At this rate, 2020 could end with a decline of 17.5%.
- Which carmakers have managed better? Tesla is the US-based carmaker which declined the less in 2020, with a drop limited to 7% in the nine months of the year. The GM group is only down 14% and this is a surprise, as the Ford group is down 25%, but remaining the largest producer in the United States (1.26 million vehicles produced over nine months 2020) ahead of GM and FCA. The FCA group limits the loss with a drop of 16%, like BMW, while Japanese and Korean carmakers are down 25% to 27%. Finally, the Renault-Nissan group is down 49%, the worst performance recorded in the country.
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Global automobile production will fall by 17% in 2020
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Global automobile production will fall by 17% in 2020
- Global automobile production (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) fell by 21% over the cumulative for the first ten months of 2020, compared to the first ten months of 2019. This drop is distributed as follows: -21.1% for passenger cars and -19.6% for light utility vehicles.
- This decline in vehicle production in 2020 is the result of the coronavirus crisis, which affected the whole world but more particularly the populations of Europe and America, those located in Asia having been less affected. The decline in vehicle production was especially significant during the spring of 2020, when most of the major countries have been locked down.
- The volume estimated by Inovev over the first ten months of 2020 is 58.9 million vehicles worldwide (PC + LUV) against 73.4 million units the previous year, which represents a decrease of 14.5 million vehicles (-21%).
- But not all countries have experienced the same evolution in their automobile production. In addition to the fact that the lock-down of the population did not take place at the same time, some countries restarted sooner than others (such as China), not to mention that other countries were less affected by the pandemic (Japan, Korea). Based on these elements, Inovev expects global automobile production to fall by 17% over the whole of 2020. This drop would represent a loss of 15 million vehicles compared to 2019, the largest decrease recorded since the end of World War II. The volume reached in 2020 would thus return to the level of 2011.
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Chinese production down 6.5% over 9 months 2020
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Chinese production down 6.5% over 9 months 2020
- While European production is down 30.1% over the nine months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019, and American production is down 23.2%, the Chinese automobile production (passenger and light utility vehicles) suffered significantly less from the coronavirus crisis, as it fell only by 6.5%, which is the best result recorded by a major producer country. Note that if we count only passenger cars, the drop reaches 12%.
- The 2018 levels were reached as of April 2020 and 2019 level as of June 2020. The September 2020 month saw an increase of 14% compared to September 2019 and 7% compared to September 2018.
- At this rate, the year 2020 could end with a stable production volume compared to 2019, and it would then be the only country in the world to record such a performance, which will considerably increase the weight of China in the global automotive industry.
- Which carmakers have managed better? Ford (+ 21%), FAW (+ 19%), Tata (+ 17%), Changan (+ 13%), BMW (+ 12%), Toyota (+ 11%), Daimler (+ 6%) groups and Mazda (+ 5%) saw their production increase in China in 2020. It is to noted that Ford, Mazda and Changan are produced at Changan plants, which therefore performs well in 2020. The biggest falls concern PSA (-69%), BAIC (-65%), FCA (-47%), Hyundai-Kia (-32%), JAC (-27%), GM (-26%) and Dongfeng (-24%). The market leader, the Volkswagen group, succeeds to limit the loss with a drop of 9% of its production volume.
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Which countries in the world were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
- 说明
Which countries in the world were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?
- Global automobile production (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) fell by 21% over the cumulative first 10 months of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019. The drop reached 21.4% for passenger cars, while it is lower for light utility vehicles (-19.6%).
- Regarding passenger cars, which represents 80% of the worldwide automobile production, the countries that have seen their production volume drop the most are Indonesia (-50%), Thailand (-40%) and Brazil (-39%).
- However, Asian countries have generally better resisted the coronavirus crisis and its consequences than countries located on other regions. Thus, China (-10%), Taiwan (-9%), Korea (-12%), Malaysia (-20%) and even Japan (-22%) perform well compared to other countries. Indonesia and Thailand are therefore two exceptions in an Asia less affected by the health crisis. The USA (-26%) and Mexico (-28%), as well as Russia (-23%), held up better than the European Union (-31%). India (-28%) does a little better than Europe, but significantly worse than most Asian countries.
- In terms of volume, China is stepping up its lead over other countries and today represents 31% of world production. Europe sees its share reduced to 19% of the world production, however ahead of the USA (14%) and Japan (11%).
- Mexico, India, Brazil, Canada and Russia will see their share decrease slightly in 2020. The case of Turkey is interesting as its production was significantly reduced in 2020 while the Turkish market sharply increases. This situation can be explained by a drop in its exports (resulting from the fall of foreign markets) which absorb 85% of its production.
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阅读全文... Which countries in the world were most impacted by the drop in production in 2020?