Inovev forecasts 250,000 units per year of the new thermal BMW 5 Series
- 说明
Inovev forecasts 250,000 units per year of the new thermal BMW 5 Series
- BMW currently produces two models in the E-segment, both thermal and PHEV: the 5 Series sedan and the X5/X6 SUV. A third model will complete this segment, the i5 electric vehicle, based on the 5 Series, scheduled for fall 2023. This analysis concerns the new thermal 5 Series sedan.
- The eighth generation of the 5 Series, eternal competitor of the Audi A6 and Mercedes E-Class, has just been unveiled. This new 5 Series (code G60), 5.06 m long (+10 cm compared to the previous model) will still be produced in Germany (Dingolfing) and China (Shenyang). Interestingly, since 2019, the 5 Series has been produced more in China (but not imported to Europe) than in Germany. The new model will be available in a thermal version and in a battery electric version named i5. This i5 will complete the Bavarian brand's range of BEVs made up of the i4, i7, iX, iX1 and iX3, the i3 model having been discontinued at the beginning of this year.
- The thermal engines of the 5 Series are 2-liter petrol and diesel, like its competitor the Mercedes E-Class, and as for the E-Class, they will be available in mild-hybrid (MHEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions. The carmaker claims CO2 emissions of between 130 g/km and 144 g/km, down from the previous model. A Touring station wagon is scheduled for 2024, replacing the old Touring versions. Mercedes also offers a station wagon on its E-Class range.
- In terms of production volume, the 5 Series reached a pic in the 2012-2015 years with a volume of 350,000 units per year, then the model experienced a slow but steady decline until 2022 when the model did not exceeded 250,000 units produced. Inovev is forecasting 250,000 new BMW 5 Series produced worldwide per year, not marking any progress compared to the previous generation because the years 2023-2030 will not be good years for thermal engine sedans. The BMW i5 on its side should gradually reach 45,000 units per year in Europe by 2030.
Some car brands could exit the Chinese market
- 说明
Some car brands could exit the Chinese market
- While the production volume of passenger cars in China increased by 8% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, several brands saw their production volume drop sharply during this period, which could suggest that some brands are gradually exiting the Chinese market, in favor of Chinese local brands. We can define two groups of brands in strong decline on the Chinese market: on one hand most Japanese and Korean brands, and on the other, a certain number of American and European brands.
- Japanese and Korean brands.
Hyundai's production volume fell by 13% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, Honda by 17%, Nissan by 20%, Mazda by 45%, Kia by 53%, Infiniti by 56%, Mitsubishi by 74%. As for Suzuki, its production was definitively stopped in December 2022.
Hyundai's production volume fell by 13% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, Honda by 17%, Nissan by 20%, Mazda by 45%, Kia by 53%, Infiniti by 56%, Mitsubishi by 74%. As for Suzuki, its production was definitively stopped in December 2022.
- American and European brands.
Cadillac's production volume fell by 17%, DS by 19%, Peugeot by 28%, Citroën by 34%, Lincoln by 45%, Skoda by 69%. As for Jeep, its production was permanently halted in June 2022.
Cadillac's production volume fell by 17%, DS by 19%, Peugeot by 28%, Citroën by 34%, Lincoln by 45%, Skoda by 69%. As for Jeep, its production was permanently halted in June 2022.
- It should be noted that the Wuling firm accounted in the American group GM saw its production drop by 45% due to the fall in sales of the Hongguang Mini EV which had nevertheless become the best-selling car in China in 2021 and 2022. The reasons of this fall are currently being analysed by Inovev.
D-segment cars is the most import in the Chinese market
- 说明
D-segment cars is the most import in the Chinese market
- The Chinese passenger car market, which emerged in the early 2000s to become the largest market in the world twenty years later, was first a market MPVs and minivans, as in a certain number of countries in the South - East Asia. The market share of these vehicles has collapsed very quickly, gradually falling from 33% in the early 2000s to 20% in 2011, 10% in 2018 and 6% in 2022. With the enrichment of the middle classes, demand quickly shifted to sedans and SUVs.
- Sales growth was strongest in C-segment cars which gradually increased from 30% in the early 2000s to 55% in 2016, then these sales collapsed due to strong growth in car sales D-segment cars. C-segment cars only represents 36% of the Chinese market in 2022.
- The sales growth of D-segment cars perfectly illustrates the enrichment of the middle classes in China, these sales having increased from 20% in 2016 to 33% in 2019, 40% in 2021 and 44% in 2022, the D-segment having even supplanted the C-segment in 2022. It has thus become the most important segment in the Chinese market.
- At the same time, we are seeing an erosion in sales of A and B segment cars, which together represented 20% of the Chinese market in the early 2000s, but only 8% in 2022, even after a rebound of the A-segment (due to the success of the WulingMinEV). The E and F segments remain very weak (5% of the market in 2022 between them, compared to 2% at the start of the 2000s).
The market share of B and C segments remained stable in Europe
- 说明
The market share of B and C segments remained stable in Europe
- The European passenger car automotive market has declined over the last three years (2020-2021-2022) but it seems that B and C segments cars have been the most impacted in terms of volume. However, in terms of market share, these two segments have held up well, since they have been stable over the past three years, at around 35% of the European market for each segment.
- However, it can be observed that since 2021, the market share of B-segment car sales has caught up with the C-segment, no doubt due to the development of B-segment SUVs. The stability of the C-segment hides the fact that sales of sedans in this segment have declined significantly regarding the strong growth of SUVs.
- Compared to the Chinese market, the European market is more a small car market, with the B and C segments having 70% of the market in Europe and only 40% in China.
- Sales of D-segment cars have fallen from 20% of the European market in the early 2000s to 15% in 2022, but this market share has been stable for five years, again with growth of SUV sales and a decline of sedans.
- Sales of A-segment and E-segment cars have each fallen from 10% to 6% in 2022, but while E-segment sales have remained stable for the past five years, A-segment sales continue to decline due to the gradual disappearance of cars from this segment in Europe.
D-segment have been leading the US automotive market for the past twenty years
- 说明
D-segment have been leading the US automotive market for the past twenty years
- The US car market for passenger cars (including SUVs and MPVs as in other markets) and pick-ups had its weakest last three years (2020-2021-2022) since 2013, between 13.9 million and 15 million units per year compared to 15.6 million in 2013 and 16.2 million in 2007.
- In this context, D-segment cars (named "intermediate" cars) have been leading the way for the past twenty years, with a market share of 37% in 2022 compared to 40% in 2011 and 33% in 2000.
- C-segment cars ("compact" cars) had grown significantly between the year 2000 and 2018, from 16% market share to 31% driven by the growth of Toyota Corolla, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cruze and Ford Focus in particular, but this segment has gradually fallen to 27% in 2022 (the Cruze and Focus have disappeared).
- The E-segment ("full size“ cars) once led the American market in the 1950s and 1960s, collapsed in the 1980s and represented only 18% of the market in the year 2000. It continued to decrease after this date, the national carmakers gradually abandoning this type of car. Their market share fell to 10% in 2009 and then stabilized.
- B-segment cars ("sub-compact" cars) which had represented up to 4% of the market in 2016-2018 have practically disappeared from this market, along with A-segment cars.
- It should be noted that pick-ups (20% of the market in 2022) and MPVs represent two specific categories, but the MPVs, after having represented up to 13% of the market, fell to 2% in 2022.