Russia towards an independent production of vehicles strategy
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Russia towards an independent production of vehicles strategy
- Western economic sanctions against Russia have caused both a fall of the local car market (notably due to the cessation of most imports) and local car production (notably due to the shutdown of a large part of the factories established in Russia).
- The automotive market has collapsed by more than 60% over the first 8 months of 2022 and the volume of Russian automotive production has also fallen by more than 60% over the same period. And the months following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia on February 24, 2022 show even greater drops, of the order of 80% to 90%.
- Faced with this industrial disaster and the departure of European and American carmakers, the Russian government decided to proceed in the same way as for other sectors of activity threatened by economic sanctions, that is to say to become self - sufficient by doing without the technology provided by Westerners (engines, automatic transmissions, ABS, airbags).
- The Soviet Union (1917-1991) had in its own way created an independent automobile industry, although Avtovaz was built with the help of Fiat and Moskvitch with the help of Renault. The acquisition of Avtovaz by Renault in 2011 and the establishment of several foreign carmakers in Russia had reduced Russian national production to a bare minimum. Vladimir Putin's objective is to recreate an independent automobile industry after the departure of Renault - former owner of Avtovaz and Avtoframos - and other European carmakers, following the invasion of Ukraine. According to the Russian government itself, car sales in Russia are not expected to return to 2021 levels until 2026 or 2027.
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China has a charging socket for three plug-in vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
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China has a charging socket for three plug-in vehicles (BEV + PHEV)
- In China, 3.3 million NEVs (New Energy Vehicles = BEV + PHEV + FCEVs) were sold in 2021. The fleet of NEVs therefore reached nearly 8 million units. For 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) had forecast that 5 million NEVs will be sold in 2022. In view of the first 8 months of the year (3.7 million NEVs including 2.9 million BEVs and 816,000 PHEVs), this objective will be well achieved, if not exceeded.
- The increase in NEVs must be accompanied by an increase in the number of infrastructure of private and public chargers and battery exchange stations (swapping). In 2021, the number of charging sockets on Chinese territory is already around 2.6 million (including nearly 1.15 million public sockets), which means that one in three NEVs in China already has a charging socket, while the number of swapping stations has probably exceeded one thousand units.
- The Chinese carmaker NIO has the largest network of swapping stations to date with 780 stations (as of January 2022), because its business model is based on this principle. NIO wishes to set up in Europe, a first station being operational in Oslo, Norway.
Other Chinese automakers are now trying to catch up. Geely entered into a partnership in 2021 with Lifan Technology (which is owned by Geely) to develop a battery-powered vehicle and set up an infrastructure of swapping stations for it. Changan, for its part, aims to commission 140 swapping stations by the end of 2022 and 200 stations by the end of 2023.
Other Chinese automakers are now trying to catch up. Geely entered into a partnership in 2021 with Lifan Technology (which is owned by Geely) to develop a battery-powered vehicle and set up an infrastructure of swapping stations for it. Changan, for its part, aims to commission 140 swapping stations by the end of 2022 and 200 stations by the end of 2023.
- Swapping stations are still a niche, even in a high-growth Chinese market. Nevertheless, the projects are developing, because the NEV market is growing very rapidly (the NEV market has more than doubled in 1 year).
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The Brazilian market (PC + LCV) increased by 14.6% in 2018
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The Brazilian market (PC + LCV) increased by 14.6% in 2018
- The Brazilian car market (PV + LCV) increased by 14.6% in 2018, to 2.57 million units against 2.24 million in 2017, which had already recorded a 9.4% increase over 2016.
- The reboot of the Brazilian market has therefore intensified in 2018, after the fall in sales that affected the market between 2013 and 2016, due to very poor economic conditions. In 2016, the Brazilian market fell to 2 million units, compared to nearly 4 million in 2012. Inovev expects a market of 2.8 million in 2019 and 3 million in 2020.
- The evolution of the Brazilian market is very different from that of the Argentinian and Mexican markets which are down in 2018. All major manufacturers (except PSA) have benefited from this uptrend.
- It should be noted that the gap between the first three manufacturers present in Brazil narrowed last year. The GM group remains narrowly the market leader, with a 16.9% market share, ahead of the Fiat-Chrysler (16.8%) and Volkswagen (15.9%) groups. The latter has made the most progress in 2018.
- Distinctly behind, as they arrived later on this market, the Renault-Nissan (12.2%), Ford (9.2%), Hyundai-Kia (8.4%), Toyota (7.8%) and Honda groups (5.1%) are ahead of the Premium manufacturers and PSA. The latter has even experienced a sales decline.
- Sedans remain in the majority on the Brazilian market (61% of the market, against 25% for SUVs).
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続きを読む... The Brazilian market (PC + LCV) increased by 14.6% in 2018
Who will be the battery cells suppliers in Europe in 2030?
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Who will be the battery cells suppliers in Europe in 2030?
- In 2022 in Europe, the number of battery cells producers for passenger cars (PCs) is still very limited, with 4 carmakers in 3 countries.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
The largest battery producer in Europe is currently LG CHEM, whose production in Poland is expected to reach 65 gWh in 2022. Next come Samsung SD (30 gWh) in second position and SK Innovations (17.5 gWh) in third position, which both produce in Hungary. Envision AESC (1.9 gWh) is fourth with its production located in Great Britain. By analyzing the announcements of producers, however, the situation should change in 2030. Envision AESC could become the largest producer of cells for passenger cars with capacities at 99 gWh, followed by ACC and Northvolt. New factories are under construction or planned, in particular in Germany, which could become the largest producing country in Europe with in particular the projects of ACC (Kaiserslaurten), VW (Salzgitter), CATL (Erfurt), SVOLT (Überherm /Saarlouis) or Varta (Ellwangen). Note that CATL's recent announcement of a second plant in Hungary has not been taken into account, waiting for more precise information.
- However, we must be careful with these announcements since some projects may evolve. For example, the project for a Farasis factory in Bitterfeld-Wolfen has been cancelled. Similarly, Tesla's Berlin factory project could also be abandoned in favor of a factory in the USA, to take advantage of the Biden administration's future plan which would promote local production of BEVs and batteries. However at this stage nothing has been confirmed.
- In general, the announcements of battery production capacities in Europe by producers by 2030 raise questions. Indeed, according to Inovev's forecasts, the demand for battery cells for BEVs and PHEVs should be around 350 gWh while the announced capacities are around 665 gWh (minimum scenario). We would find ourselves in this case with overcapacities of almost 50%. What will we do with this excess production capacity? Export them? Assign them to other applications? Reduce them?
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Inovev expects 75,000 new Opel Vivaro SUV per year
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Inovev expects 75,000 new Opel Vivaro SUV per year
- Previously based on the Renault Trafic, following former agreements signed between Renault and the GM Group, the Opel Vivaro changes completely in 2019. It now takes the platform, engines and body of Citroën Jumpy, Peugeot Expert and Toyota ProAce, following the acquisition of Opel by the PSA group. The front of the new Opel Vivaro has been customized to differentiate it from the other PSA group SUVs sharing the same base.
- The new Opel Vivaro will continue to be manufactured on the Opel-Vauxhall site in Luton, since this site was taken over by PSA during the acquisition of Opel, but some versions that were manufactured on the Renault Sandouville site will be discontinued.
- The Luton site, with a production capacity of 100,000 vehicles per year, should be able to manufacture 75,000 Vivaro each year according to Inovev, to which should be added 15,000 Citroën Jumpy and Peugeot Expert for the UK market.
- Since 2013, Opel Vivaro sales have benefited from the growth of the European market for light commercial vehicles. They practically doubled between 2012 and 2018, from 40,000 to 75,000 units.
- The new Opel Vivaro is equipped with 1.6l and 2.0l diesel engines used by the Citroën Jumpy, Peugeot Expert and Toyota ProAce, and like them, it should soon adopt an electric motorization.
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