BMW and Great Wall ally to produce Mini BEV cars in China
The BMW group, already in JV with Brilliance for the production of BMW models in China, this time ally with Great Wall to produce Mini models in China.

BMW informed that the Mini made in China with Great Wall would be 100% electric models (BEV), with the objective to comply with the quotas set up by the Chinese government. Great Wall already produces BEVs with 40,000 units sold in 2019 under the ORA brand. Two models are sold: the ORA R1 (A segment/sedans), which has sold 29,000 units while the iQ(C segment/SUV) has sold it at just over 10,000 units.

The JV plant, which will be located in Jiangsu Province, will start in 2022 and will have a production capacity of 160,000 vehicles per year. This volume represents 30% of BMW's current sales in China but the production volume will be probably less. Actually, It is not certain, that BMW will be able to sell 160,000 BEV Mini per year from 2022. It will take several years before this volume is reached or rather approached.

The B segment models (all engines combined) are not very popular in China (far behind the C and D segment models). And this is also the case for the BEV market where segment B represents only 11% of the market in 2019. In addition, the Mini EV will compete with BYD Yuan, the best selling BEV of B segment, with nearly 62,000 units in 2019. A model marketed at around 25,000 Euros (without subsidies) in its most powerful version (120 KW of Battery capacity - 535 Km of autonomy announced).

The BEV products offer in B segment is certainly still far from being saturated, with less than 15 different models proposed (which is already much more than on other global markets), and only BYD Yuan exceeds 10,000 units. The Mini EV will therefore have to offer strong added value to face the local competition in order to be able to take a share of the market.


    
 

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Inovev forecasts 150,000 units per year of the new Mercedes GLA
Mercedes has unveiled the new generation of its C segment SUV, the GLA, which is based on the recent Class A and Class B. It therefore takes up the MFA platform but slightly increases its dimensions (like the Class A and CLA) which allows you to have a third side window, which completely changes its physiognomy since it is closer to a real SUV, while the previous GLA looked more like an enhanced Class A than a real SUV.

The new GLA will use engines already supplied for the A Class, namely 1.3 petrol engines developing 110hp, 136hp or 163hp, 2.0 developing 225hp or 306hp, and 1.5 diesel engines developing 116hp, 2.0 developing 150hp or 190hp.

The new GLA will be produced at the German site in Rastatt, alongside the A Class A and B Class. It is to note that the A Class is partly produced in Rastatt and partly produced in Kecskemét in Hungary.

Inovev forecasts a volume of 150,000 sales per year, while the production of the old GLA fell to 110,000 units in 2019, after reaching a peak of 140,000 units in 2017. Its body design is more in line with the market demand can help the increase in production predicted by Inovev.

GLA's main competitors are the BMW X2 and Audi Q2, two Premium C segment SUVs.

The GLA is the smallest SUV in the Mercedes range which is made up of the GLC (segment D), GLE (segment E) and GLS (segment F), as well as the G-Class which falls into the category of SUVs called "rustic" like the Jeep Wrangler.


    
 

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The Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is kept at 84% by local carmakers
In 2019, the Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) is more than 90% kept by local Chinese carmakers. In this analysis, Inovev included the Tesla, which is now a major player in the Chinese market, while sales statistics released by the Chinese government only take into account locally produced vehicles.

The BEV market is still very fragmented in 2019 with no less than 58 brands, selling from ten units per year to hundreds of thousands for the most important. The market is made up of 43 local brands and 15 non-Chinese brands (5 European, 5 Japanese, 3 American and 2 Korean). However, the top 20 brands represent 90% of BEV's sales, with more than 10,000 units sold per year.

A Top 20 almost entirely Chinese, with the exception of Tesla which, with nearly 43,000 units sold in 2019 (Inovev estimates from various sources) is the only non-Chinese carmaker to integrate the top 20 BEV brand in China.

This classification is dominated by the carmaker BYD which with nearly 150,000 units sold, holds 17% of the market, ahead of BAIC (97,000 units for 11% of the market) and Baojun (60,000 units for 7% of the market). VW, the leading carmaker in China, all engines combined, sold less than 10,000 BEV (9,516 units to be precise). Nissan, BEV’s leading Japanese brand in China, and despite the success of its Leaf in the US and Europe, had not the same success with its Sylphy model, with only 8,109 units sold.

In the future, with the new development plan of the NEV (New Energy Vehicles), the face of the market should however evolve. Indeed, the short-term end of subsidies, the quotas of electric vehicles imposed on any brand operating on the Chinese market, and the establishment of local standards which are set to become global benchmarks (both on vehicles and batteries), should ultimately drastically decrease the number of players, push for a grouping of Chinese carmakers (to create one or several national “champions”) but also rebalance the presence of non-Chinese brands.


    
 

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The Chinese market for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) grew by 4% in 2019 despite the subsidies reduction
The market of passenger cars (PC) produced in China, all engines combined, fell by almost 10% in 2019 compared to 2018, to stand at 21.36 million units. In this context, the Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) market managed nevertheless to experience growth of 4% compared to 2018, with a volume of just over 825,000 units. This volume only takes into account locally produced vehicles, in particular without taking into account imports as Tesla ones.

The Chinese market remains the world's largest for this type of engine, ahead of the European Union + Norway + Switzerland market (Inovev estimates at 355,000 units) and ahead of the United States market (236,000 units). China, however, experienced some disturbances in 2019, not only because of the market overall development but also because of political decisions which had a direct impact on BEV demand.

Indeed, at the end of March 2019, the government announced its new incentive policy regarding the purchase of so-called “NEV” vehicles (for New Energy Vehicles - PHEV + BEV + FCEV) with decreasing subsidies, passing for instance from 50,000 Yuan (nearly 7,300 Euros) to 25,000 Yuan (3,650 Euros) in the case of a BEV with a range superior than 400 km (NEDC cycle). This subsidies drop has the long-term objective of “cleaning-up” the market, avoiding dependence on subsidies and overcapacity, keeping only financially viable carmakers, which are not relying solely on subsidies and developing products with high technological content. In addition, and in order to maintain demand in the long term, the budget previously dedicated to subsidies will now be allocated to the development of charging infrastructure.

These decisions had a direct impact on the short term demand, as the market had a disturbed evolution, with a sharp increase of 54% in sales in June 2019 (in anticipation of the application of the new politic) and a sharp fall of the same order at -58% the following month. However, and despite the possible announcement of a total end of subsidies, in the medium and long term, demand and supply of electric vehicles should continue to grow through the use of other levers (quotas, standards on vehicles and batteries, development of charging infrastructure….).


    
 

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Toyota reorganises the production of its models in Europe
In 2019, just under 800,000 passenger cars and light utility vehicles (PC+LUV) have been produced in Europe under the Toyota brand (including Turkey). Toyota's first production site in Europe is located in Adapazari, Turkey, which has produced around 250,000 units from its plant, mainly CHR (93% of production) and at a smaller scale, Corolla. France is the second Toyota production site in Europe with the production of the Toyota Yaris with nearly 224,000 units in Onnaing, to which has to be added the PROACE LUV produced by PSA in Valenciennes. Great Britain produces around 140,000 units (in 2019) of the Toyota Corolla (in Burnaston). Finally, the Kolin plant (Czech Rep.) produced around 100,000 units of the Aygo, a factory where the Peugeot 108 and Citroën C1 are also produced. More anecdotally, it should be noted that the Toyota Supra is produced in the Magna Steyr factory in Graz (Austria), while the Portuguese factory in Ovar produces the Dyna LUV and some units of the Land Cruiser for export.

Toyota has announced the production of a segment B SUV at the Onnaing site (a suburb of Valenciennes - France). This SUV, based on the new TNGA platform, which also equips the 4th generation of the Toyota Yaris, could be unveiled at the next Paris Motor Show, for a SOP in late 2020-early 2021.
The arrival of this model in the he French plant will cause a partial reorganisation of Toyota's production in Europe.

Indeed, with the production of this new SUV, part of the production of the Yaris will be transferred to Kolin. The objective announced by Toyota for the Onnaing site is to reach 300,000 production units with these two models. For the Kolin site, the production of part of the Toyota Yaris alongside the Toyota Aygo will be followed by the gradual end of the Peugeot 108 and Citroën C1 until the end of 2021 (according to the Inovev scenario). Toyota Aygo which could be replaced after 2021 by a new BEV of A segment.

In the long term, Inovev forecasts that the Toyota B segment SUV could reach 175,000 units per year (in a high scenario), while the Yaris could see its production return to a level of 200,000 units also (high scenario), including 100,000 in Onnaing and 100,000 units in the Czech Republic. Consequently, the Onnaing plant could reach a production level of 275,000 units in 2025, while the Kolin plant would reach a production of 150,000 units in the same period (including 100,000 for the Yaris and 50,000 for the future electric Aygo).


    
 

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