Development of MHEV sales in Europe and forecasts
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Development of MHEV sales in Europe and forecasts
- For several years, sales of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) in Europe have been increasing in percentage from 10% of the passenger car market in 2020 to 15% in 2021 and to almost 20% in 2022. If we include the light commercial vehicle category, which is still barely influenced by MHEV powertrains, the MHEV sales share rises to almost 13% in 2022, up from 10% in 2021. It should be noted, however, that this percentage increase is not due to an increase in MHEV sales, but to the decline of the market.
- At the same time, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) sales increase sharply in percentage terms: 11% in 2020 (6% BEV and 5% PHEV), 20% in 2021 (11% BEV and 9% PHEV), and 22% in 2022 (13% BEV and 9% PHEV). Non-rechargeable hybrids (full hybrids) account for a smaller share (4% in 2020, 6% in 2021, and 8% in 2022).
- In opposition, the category losing large market share is purely internal combustion engine cars, which account for 75% of European registrations in 2020, 59% in 2021, and 50% in 2022. As with MHEVs, however, these data for BEVs/PHEVs need to be put into perspective. This is because a significant portion of the increasing share is a result of the shrinking market.
- Will the share of MHEVs continue to rise over the next decade? Due to stricter standards (especially Euro 7), this will probably be the case. However, it is not yet clear by how much, as MHEV vehicles and especially MHEV-48V vehicles are more expensive (but far less than BEVs). What could encourage their development is a products offer from carmakers driven by both the need to fit the new standards and the search for higher profits.
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Sales of the Mégane BEV have exceeded those of the Mégane with combustion engine
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Sales of the Mégane BEV have exceeded those of the Mégane with combustion engine
- The battery electric Renault Mégane E-Tech (BEV) was launched in 2021 and came onto the market in January 2022. Although it is in the same segment (C-segment) as the model with internal combustion engine and has a similar length (internal combustion engine: 4.36 m and electric drive: 4.20 m), this model, in addition to being electrified, has some significant differences with the Mégane with internal combustion engine, which was launched in 2016 and continues its career.
- The manufacturer refused to sacrifice the internal combustion engine model when the battery electric Mégane E-Tech was launched, as Smart had done with its Fortwo and Forfour, for example, resulting in a 75% slump in Smart sales.
- This strategy of keeping the old internal combustion engine model alongside the new electric model has recently been applied by Volvo, which continues to market the old XC90 SUV alongside the new EX90 SUV with an electric motor.
- Sales figures reported by the various European statistics agencies show that sales of the old Mégane with an internal combustion engine declined, while sales of the new Mégane with an electric motor increased. In August 2022, sales figures for the new Mégane exceeded those of the old model, and the gap between the two models has widened steadily since then. Cumulative sales of both models are returning to the 2021 level, when only the combustion-engine Mégane was launched.
- In October 2022, European sales of the electric Mégane E-Tech reached 4,500 units, while those of the combustion-engine Mégane did not exceed 3,000 units. According to Inovev, the career of the Mégane with internal combustion engine is expected to continue until demand begins to weaken, starting probably in 2024. The electric Mégane E-Tech would then represent the Renault brand's C-segment sedans alone until its replacement, which is expected in 2028.
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Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year of the new Volvo EX90
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Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year of the new Volvo EX90
- Volvo (Swedish subsidiary of Chinese group Geely) has revealed the battery electric replacement for its XC90 large SUV: the EX90. However, the replacement of the brand's flagship will be gradual, similar to what Renault is doing with the Mégane. So, the XC90 is expected to coexist with the new EX90 for several years before disappearing. As a reminder, the current XC90 (internal combustion engine model) was launched in 2014 and its predecessor had lasted for twelve years (2002-2014). So, it is possible that the current XC90 will survive at least until 2026.
- The main differences between the Volvo EX90 and the XC90 are that it is 100% electric and is built at the manufacturer's US plant in Charleston, South Carolina, along with the S60 sedan.
- Another model will hit the assembly lines at this plant: the Polestar 3 SUV, which is based on the same platform as the EX90, powered by the same electric motor and sold at a similar price. Only the design distinguishes the two models.
- The Volvo EX90 is 8 cm longer than the XC90 (5.03 m versus 4.95 m) and is still a seven-seat vehicle. Because of its size and price (over 100,000 euros), the new model will be aimed mainly at markets in the United States and China, which love this type of model. Overall, however, sales figures are not expected to be large. Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year in the first years of launch (2023-2025) and 50,000 units per year after 2025.
- The Volvo EX90 can be equipped with one of two electric motors (300 kW and 380 kW) and a battery with a capacity of 111 kWh, providing a range of 580 km to 585 km, depending on the motorization.
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VW is accelerating in its electrification strategy
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VW is accelerating in its electrification strategy
- The sales results of the Volkswagen brand's all-electric models are not in line with the carmaker's targets, nor with what is expected of models from this brand, one of the highest-volume brands in the world. Of the Volkswagen ID3, ID4, ID5 and ID Buzz, 80,000 units were sold in Europe in the first nine months of 2022, 80,000 in China and 15,000 in the rest of the world, for a total of 175,000, plus 30,000 ID6s sold only in China.
- The discontinued electric Up! will be replaced by ID1 and ID2 in 2025. If you compare Volkswagen's 205,000 sales with those of Tesla (1,075,000 sales in 9 months 2022), BYD (580,000 sales) or Wuling (380,000 units), you see that the gap in the global BEV market is clearly to Volkswagen's disadvantage.
- Volkswagen therefore now wants to accelerate its switch to electric vehicles. One of the first decisions to move in this direction is the announcement of a major electric production unit at the Wolfsburg site. If the German brand wants to produce battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe by 2035, the Zwickau, Emden and Hanover sites will not be sufficient to achieve this goal. The Wolfsburg plant is now added to the production of BEVs, not only for the Trinity project (which has been postponed), but for the compact ID3, ID4, ID5 series and their successors.
- BEVs production is expected to start in 2023, accelerate in 2024 and 2025, and reach a total of 100% of vehicles produced in Wolfsburg in 2033. In 2022, the Volkswagen brand produced 1.5 million vehicles in Europe. The manufacturer's objective is to produce 1.5 million BEVs in Europe between 2033 and 2035, one third of them in Wolfsburg.
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new Ford Bronco
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Inovev forecasts 100,000 units per year of the new Ford Bronco
- The Ford Bronco was an institution in the United States for about thirty years since this compact, rustic and adventurous SUV established itself on the off-road market in North America between 1966 and 1996. Ford then moved on and was more focused on marketing SUV of larger size and more urban, as Range Rover did. In 2020, Ford returns to the compact and adventurous SUV market with the new generation of the Bronco, which is in direct competition with the Land Rover Defender of which it takes the style, and to a lesser extent with the Jeep Wrangler.
- Equipped with large wheels and two types of bodywork (2 or 4 doors) like the Jeep Wrangler and the Land Defender, the new Ford Bronco has the option of changing various bodywork elements (removable doors and roof , integral hard-top with roll bar).
- With its 29-degree angle of attack, 37-degree departure angle, 28 centimetres of ground clearance, 35-inch wheels (optional) and ability to pass through 85 centimetres of water without risking the vehicle mechanical, the Bronco is resolutely intended for all-terrain. This model will be proposed with two engines: a 2.3 litres petrol four-cylinder with 270 hp and a 2.7 litres petrol V6 with 310 hp. No V8, diesel, hybrid engine or 100% electric engine for the 2020 Ford Bronco generation.
- Production of this model will begin in early 2021 at the Wayne plant (Michigan) for a launch onto the market from the spring. No marketing to Europe is planned. Inovev plans 100,000 units per year of the new Ford Bronco.
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