Review of the Chinese market (PC+UV) over the first six months of 2022
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Review of the Chinese market (PC+UV) over the first six months of 2022
- The Chinese automobile market (PC+UV) fell by 6.5% in the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021, to 12.05 million units compared to 12.88 million, and by 2.2% compared to in the first half of 2019, but this drop is attributable solely to commercial vehicles (UVs) which saw their sales fall by more than 40% over this period, while passenger cars (PCs) saw their sales continue to grow (+3, 5%). China is also the only major global market to grow in the first half of 2022, with all markets showing a drop of more than 10% on average.
- In terms of bodywork, sales of sedans and SUVs were balanced in the first half of 2022, with 4.93 million sedans (+6%) and 4.89 million SUVs (+3%). Minivans (385,000 units) and minivans (153,000 units) continue to become scarce, with a respective drop of 15.7% and 13.7%.
- The decline in commercial vehicle sales is a consequence of the decline in economic growth in China, linked both to a slowdown in world trade due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine (Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of essential products) and the successive confinements observed in China in recent months. The WTO has thus revised downwards its growth forecast for international trade in goods for 2022, to 3% instead of 4.7% previously. In this context, Chinese brands are making strong progress on the Chinese market, now accounting for 49% of PC sales and 56% of PC+UV sales. The share of foreign manufacturers is therefore shrinking accordingly, despite the arrival of Tesla.
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Chinese car sales in Europe in the first six months of 2022
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Chinese car sales in Europe in the first six months of 2022
- The volume of Chinese cars sold in Europe (29 countries) reached 75,000 units in the first half of 2022, which augurs for a volume of 150,000 units for the whole year. In 2021, this volume had not exceeded 80,000 units, which demonstrates that sales will probably double this year compared to the previous year.
- It should be remembered that sales of Chinese cars (for the most part equipped with a 100% electric engine) started in 2017 with the MG brand (ex-British brand) which began to invest in the British market before expanding to all of Europe. In 2018, sales of Chinese cars in Europe had reached 9,000 units, then 14,000 in 2019 and 30,000 in 2020.
- The MG brand was soon joined by other Chinese brands, such as Polestar, Lynk&Co, Aiways, NIO, Dongfeng, JAC, BYD, Hongqi, BAIC, Xpeng, Maxus, in short, a dozen brands are now present on the European market.
- The customers who buy this type of car are mainly attracted by the lower prices than European electric vehicles in the same segment, even lower than Korean electric vehicles. This clientele is put off by the excessively high prices of European electric vehicles. European (and now Korean) manufacturers favor margin over volume, which leaves an entire section of the market (that of the least expensive cars) at the mercy of Chinese manufacturers. Japanese manufacturers have not yet really invested in the electric car market. As for the Dacia Spring, it comes from China, which explains its very low price but its small size does not suit some BEV customers.
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German manufacturers now produce more than French manufacturers in Eastern Europe
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German manufacturers now produce more than French manufacturers in Eastern Europe
- French car manufacturers were the first Europeans, along with Italian manufacturers, to relocate part of their production to Eastern European countries. It should be remembered that Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary joined the European Union in 2004, and that Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria joined in 2007. But the first relocations date from the 1990s, when these countries broke away from the grip of the Soviet Union.
- Between 2005 and 2015, the establishment of French manufacturers (Renault, PSA) was preponderant in these countries, but since 2015 we have witnessed a rise in power of German manufacturers (Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes) whose establishment has become predominant in recent years. These now represent 37% of production in this region, while French manufacturers only produce 29% of this production there. And this figure includes since 2021 the Fiat-Chrysler group.
- The French and German manufacturers were joined from 2007 by the Korean manufacturers (Hyundai-Kia) which today account for 17% of the production in these countries.
- Japanese manufacturers are weakly established in this region, which is nevertheless famous for the low cost of labor, since only Toyota produces cars in the Czech Republic and Suzuki produces them in Hungary. These manufacturers together produce only 8% of the region's production in 2022. Finally, an American manufacturer, Ford, produces in Romania and produces 7% of the region's production, which represents 25% of European production as a whole.
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The GM-Wuling Mini EV: the small electric that thinks big
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The GM-Wuling Mini EV: the small electric that thinks big
- The Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is currently the best-selling car in China, all engines combined. It is also the best-selling electric car in China and one of the best-selling electric cars in the world, with 554,133 units sold in its first two years on the market in China (127,651 units in 2020 and 426 482 in 2021). In the first half of 2022, its sales volume amounted to 214,188 units, suggesting a volume close to 450,000 units for the year as a whole. The model is manufactured at the Liuzhou (Guangxi) site.
- The Wuling brand previously focused on small rustic minivans, has completely renewed its strategy, at a not very distant time when it saw its sales dwindle.
- It remains to be seen whether the success of the Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, a small three-door sedan 2.92 m long equipped with a 17.5 hp electric motor and a 9.2 kWh LFP battery allowing a range of 120 km or a 13.8 kWh LFP battery allowing a range of 170 km, will be sustainable and if this success can be exported. As of now, the cheapest vehicle in China is marketed in Lithuania for a price of 10,000 euros excluding bonus, while a Dacia Spring is billed at 19,000 euros less the bonus of 5,000 euros. The price of the Wuling is closer to the Citroën Ami cart (7,000 euros) which is even shorter (2.41 m) and therefore less habitable. The Ami, launched the same year as the Wuling, has garnered only 23,000 sales since its launch. Its engine develops 12 hp and its battery offers a capacity of 5.5 kWh allowing a range of 70 km.
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Production forecast Spain 2023-2030
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Production forecast Spain 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger cars (PC) + light utility vehicules (LUV) production in Spain shows a catch-up process starting in 2023 with growth expected to intensify through 2030. Spanish production could rise from 2 million units in 2022 (a low since 2012) to 3 million units in 2030. Spanish car production had already approached this level in 2015-2019, but without exceeding 2.9 million units. The mediocre years of 2020, 2021 and 2022 were marked by the Corona crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021) and then by the consequences of the war in Ukraine (2022).
- Inovev's forecast, which sees a volume of 3 million units in 2030, takes into account several factors, such as the introduction of the Peugeot 208 at the Zaragoza site from 2026, which will more than compensate for the departure of the Citroën C3 Aircross and Opel Crossland, or the introduction of the Volkswagen ID2 small electric cars and their offshoots Skoda and Cupra.
- The development of the Cupra models will more than offset the decline in Seat's sales and production figures.
- Added to this is the development of Citroën's production in Spain (C4X, which will join the C4), Renault's in Spain (Mitsubishi ASX, which will join the Captur), and Ford's decision to produce electronic models in Valencia.
- Spain will thus be the only major European country to perform better in 2030 than in 2019 and - at 3 million vehicles per year - will be midway between France (2 million) and Germany (4 million).
- The Stellantis sites in Zaragoza and Vigo will be among the largest European production facilities.
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