The Italian market declines by 9.7% in 2022 compared to 2021
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The Italian market declines by 9.7% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Italian car market (passenger cars) remained at a very low level in 2022 compared to 2021 (-9.7%), and especially compared to 2019 (-31%). In total, Italy registered 1,316,702 passenger cars last year, compared to 1,457,952 in 2021, against 1,381,496 in 2020 and 1,916,320 in 2019. This is far from the 2.5 million units recorded in 2007.
- The reasons given for this very low level of registrations in 2022 are delays in vehicle deliveries, which can last several months.
- But it could be that the sharp increase in the average price of cars and a wait-and-see attitude of customers towards electric vehicles is slowing down purchases and encouraging potential customers to keep their vehicles longer.
- The ranking by brand shows that Fiat is still the market leader with 178,935 units, ahead of Volkswagen (104,852 units), Toyota (92,148 units), Ford (74,128 units), Peugeot (69,311 units) and Dacia (59,732 units), ahead of Renault.
- By groups, Stellantis is the Italian market leader in 2022 (460,872 units) ahead of Volkswagen (218,005 units), Renault-Nissan (154,863 units), Toyota (95,394 units) and Hyundai-Kia (84,391 units).
- The best-selling models in Italy in 2022 were the Fiat Panda (103,835 units), the Lancia Ypsilon (40,949 units) and the Fiat 500 (35,995 units). Note that Italy is the only country in Europe where the Lancia Ypsilon is marketed, but from 2024, the new Ypsilon will be distributed throughout Europe as in the 90s.
The Spanish market declines by 5.4% in 2022 compared to 2021
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The Spanish market declines by 5.4% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Spanish car market (passenger cars) remained at a very low level in 2022 compared to 2021 (-5.4%) and especially compared to 2019 (-35%). In total, Spain registered 813,396 passenger cars last year, compared to 859,477 in 2021, 851,211 in 2020 and 1,258,260 in 2019. This is the lowest figure recorded since 2014. This is far from the numbers reached in 2006/2007. The reasons given for this very low level of registrations in 2022 would be the delays in vehicle deliveries, which can reach several months. But it could be that the sharp increase in the average price of cars and the wait-and-see attitude of customers towards electric vehicles is slowing down purchases and encouraging potential customers to keep their vehicles longer.
- The ranking by brand shows that Toyota is leading the Spanish market for the first time (73,505 units), ahead of Kia (63,345 units), Volkswagen (58,874 units), Hyundai (59,503 units) and Peugeot (54,737 units). Seat (49,200 units) is no longer in the top 5.
- However, by group, Volkswagen remains the Spanish market leader in 2022 (182,723 units), ahead of Stellantis (165,948 units), Hyundai-Kia (122,848 units) and Renault-Nissan (104,433 units).
- The best-selling models in Spain in 2022 were the Hyundai Tucson (21,985 units), Dacia Sandero (20,782 units), Seat Arona (17,462 units), Toyota Corolla (16,998 units), Volkswagen T-Roc (16,595 units), Fiat 500 (15,999 units) and Toyota CHR (15,987 units).
Forecasts for BEV production in the UK in 2030
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Forecasts for BEV production in the UK in 2030
- Inovev estimates that between 167,000 and 207,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) could be produced in the UK by 2030. Currently, a total of five manufacturers are expected to make their mark on future BEV production in the UK: Renault-Nissan with the Nissan brand, BMW with the Mini brand, Tata with the Land Rover brand, Toyota and Stellantis with Citroën, Peugeot and the Opel brand, which will be marketed there under the name Vauxhall. All the British BEV production sites of these brands are located in England.
- According to Inovev, the largest BEV production is at the Nissan plant (part of the Renault-Nissan Group) in Sunderland, where the all-electric version of the Nissan Leaf is manufactured. The second largest BEV production in the country will likely be at the Ellesmere Port plant, which Stellantis and Toyota share. It's unclear what will happen to Mini's BEV production in Cowley, which could be the third largest in the country, as Mini plans to have its BEVs produced in China in the future. According to Inovev's forecasts, none of the sites mentioned will be able to reach a significant production volume of 100,000 BEVs or more by 2030.
- UK car production will face several challenges in the future. EU plans mean that the European market could be fully electrified from that date. Despite the Brexit, this market is critical to the UK automotive industry, but that same Brexit could make it more difficult for manufacturers and customers to produce and purchase BEVs due to import duties and controls. In addition, Britishvolt's Gigafactory project is under severe threat, which would put even more pressure on BEV production in the country. One wonders what the point of such a Gigafactory is with a future volume of less than 210,000 electric vehicles, which is less than Italy. Older British brands like Jaguar and MG have their BEVs manufactured abroad, Land Rover currently only offers PHEVs, but will set up small BEV production at the Halewood and Solihull sites. A departure of the Mini could further marginalize an already weak production. In short, the Brexit seems to put the UK's future automotive industry in jeopardy.
Belgian market declines by 4.4% in 2022 compared to 2021
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Belgian market declines by 4.4% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Belgian car market (passenger cars) remained at a very low level in 2022 compared to 2021 (-4.4%) and especially compared to 2019 (-33%). In total, Belgium registered 366,303 passenger cars last year, compared to 383,123 in 2021, against 431,491 in 2020 and 550,003 in 2019. This is the lowest figure recorded for several decades.
- The reasons given for this very low level of registrations in 2022 would be the delays in vehicle deliveries, which can reach several months.
- But it could be that the sharp increase in the average price of cars and the wait-and-see attitude of customers towards electric vehicles is slowing down purchases and encouraging potential customers to keep their vehicles longer.
- The ranking by brand shows that BMW remains the Belgian market leader with 38,011 units, ahead of Volkswagen (32,061 units), Mercedes (29,283 units), Peugeot (29,140 units), Audi (26,253 units) and Toyota (21,262 units). As in Germany, the premium brands enjoy a comfortable position here.
- By group, Volkswagen is the Belgian market leader in 2022 (81,596 units), ahead of Stellantis (69,867 units), BMW (45,188 units), Renault-Nissan (41,317 units) and Mercedes (29,374 units).
- The best-selling models in Belgium in 2022 were the Dacia Sandero (8,215 units), the Volvo XC40 (7,310 units), the Peugeot 308 (6,939 units), the Peugeot 208 (6,846 units) and the BMW X3 (5,680 units).
Evolution of the Indian market in 2022-2023
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Evolution of the Indian market in 2022-2023
- Among the Asian growth markets, the Indian automotive market is one of the most promising alongside the Chinese market. Since 2014, continuous growth has been observed, interrupted only by the Covid19 pandemic, which caused the market to shrink to less than 3 million vehicles sold by 2020. However, the market recovered as quickly as it collapsed, with growth rates of 28% in 2021 and 26% in 2022, scratching the 5 million mark by the end of 2022, which will most likely be exceeded in 2023, barring any disasters.
- The Indian automotive market benefits from the fact that it is not yet saturated. In 2019, the motorization rate was 225 vehicles per 1,000 habitants, and the population is growing rapidly every year. Moreover, this growing population is becoming more wealthy and moving to urban areas, which enables or requires the purchase of a car.
- The market is dominated by Japanese carmaker Suzuki, which alone holds 34% of the Indian market in 2022, followed by Indian carmaker Tata-Motors with 19% market share. Korean carmaker Hyundai-Kia has a market share of about 17%. These three carmakers, along with Mahindra and Ashok and Japanese carmakers Toyota and Honda, account for more than 91% of the market in 2022. Will Chinese carmakers succeed in breaking this physiognomy in 2023? The most successful Chinese brand to date is MG, with a market share of only 1%.
- Japanese dominance also affects xEVs sales (BEV+HEV+PHEV), which account for only less than 2% in the Indian market in 2022. 91% of xEVs sales are hybrid cars, a Japanese specialty, 9% are BEVs, and unlike Europe, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) hardly exist there. Cars with alternative engines still seem too expensive for this emerging market and the infrastructure for BEVs is not there. But India must look in this direction if it wants to tackle environmental problems with a population that could soon surpass China.
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