What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
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What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
- In terms of global sales forecasts for BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030, and 2035, the big questions are whether electrification will progress to the point where these vehicles hold an absolute majority share of their respective markets, as suggested by the governments of market-ready countries, and whether the share of BEVs and PHEVs sales will be equal in China, Europe, India, Japan, and the US.
- Inovev projects a global BEVs and PHEVs sales share of 33% in 2030 and 60% in 2035 (up from 17% in 2022).
- For 2022, the global market level will be close to 12 million BEVs and PHEVs, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 7 million vehicles, the U.S. 1 million, Europe 2.5 million, Japan 400 000, India 100 000, and the remaining regions 800 000.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global market of 18 million BEVs and PHEVs, including 10 million vehicles in China, 2 million in the U.S., 4.5 million in Europe, 700 000 in India, and 800 000 in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global market of 26 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 15 million vehicles in China, 4,5 million in the U.S., 7 million in Europe, 1.2 million in India, and 1.3 million in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- For 2035, Inovev projects a global market of 48 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 25 million vehicles in China, 9 million in the U.S., 10 million in Europe, 2 million in India, and 2 million in Japan. Rest 2 million in the other regions.
- These scenarios take into account that a large part of the customers accept the public decisions to electrife vehicles in Europe and US markets, but for instance, the targets of the European Commission are still not likely to be reached by 2035, but rather by 2040.
What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
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What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
- What will the global market levels be in 2025, 2030 and 2035? No one knows what the economy will look like in that time and whether the various governments' targets for vehicle electrification will be met. However, Inovev has established different scenarios to estimate the level of passenger car sales in the world during this period, focusing on five major markets: Europe, USA, China, India and Japan, with a reference scenario presented here below.
- For 2022, the level of the global car market will be around 70 million units, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 26.5 million vehicles, the U.S. 13.5 million, Europe 11.5 million, Japan 4.2 million and India 4 million.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 76 million vehicles, including 28.5 million vehicles in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 5 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market (+2 Million vs. 2022), the Indian market (+1 Million vs. 2022) and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 79 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 6 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market, the Indian market and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2035, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 80 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 11 million in Europe, 7 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Indian market and the immature markets in Asia and South America.
New Honda Accord aims to take over sedan customers of Ford and Chevrolet in the U.S market
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New Honda Accord aims to take over sedan customers of Ford and Chevrolet in the U.S market
- The Chevrolet Malibu and Ford Fusion midsize sedans have traditionally been among the top 10 in the U.S. Their design has always been consensus-driven to appeal the mass market, unlike other American car brands whose designs have been more sophisticated or even aggressive. But the Chevrolet and Ford sedans eventually disappeared before the Chevrolet Malibu went back into production in November 2021.
- Their Japanese counterparts, the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord, benefited only slightly from the decline of the Chevrolet and Ford sedans. The new Honda Accord, unveiled this month, has a sleek, consensual design that could have come from Chevrolet or Ford. The previous Honda Accord was far less consensus-oriented.
- So we might think that Honda wants to take back Chevrolet and Ford customers, but that goal will be hard to achieve as the share of sedans in the U.S. market continues to decline and SUVs continue to grow. By 2022, SUVs will account for 55% of the U.S. market, while sedans will account for only 20%. And these sedans will mainly come from Japan, Korea and Germany.
- In 2022, the two best-selling sedans in the U.S. market are the Toyota Camry (300,000 sales) and the Honda Accord (200,000 sales). The latter is counting on its new generation to come closer to the Camry. Inovev forecasts 250,000 sales of the new Accord.
Land Rover Defender becomes the brand's best-selling model
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Land Rover Defender becomes the brand's best-selling model
- The new generation Land Rover Defender was launched in 2019. Larger than its predecessor (whose origins date back to 1948), the new Defender is no longer made at the British site in Solihull (where the Range Rover, Range Sport and Range Velar remain produced), but at the Slovakian site in Nitra where the Discovery is also produced.
- While the old Defender was the least sold model of the Land Rover brand since the introduction of the Range Rover in 1970, the new Defender managed to become the best-selling model of the brand within three years. However, without much distance, since its production will reach 60,000 units by 2022, while the other models of the brand this year range between 20,000 and 40,000 units, distributed as follows: 40,000 units of Range Evoque, 38,000 of Range Rover, 36,000 of Range Rover Sport, 30,000 of Range Velar and 20,000 of Discovery Sport. Only the Discovery is left behind with 5,000 units produced in 2022.
- Looking at the production volumes of Land Rover models between 2019 and 2022, apart from Defender, which has managed to win back some of its customers, we find that all models have seen a decline in sales: Discovery Sport (-76,000 units), Range Sport (-40,000 units), Range Evoque (-32,000 units) and Discovery (-30,000 units).
- Overall, Land Rover production has lost 147,000 units between 2019 and 2022, despite the introduction of the new Defender. This represents a 39% drop, which remind the sales decline of the Jaguar brand (which, like Land Rover, is part of the Tata Motors Group). As with Jaguar, Land Rover's transition to electric cars will be a difficult one, as both brands are in the upper price range. Prices could become extremely high. Currently, a Defender is sold from 70,000 to 140,000 euros depending on the version, to which a malus (CO2 tax) is added in many European countries (e.g. 40,000 euros in France).
Euro 7 standard: What the European Commission proposes and consequences
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Euro 7 standard: What the European Commission proposes and consequences
- While Euro standards regulating pollutant emissions from vehicles have typically been updated every 4 to 5 years, the current regulation, Euro 6, is almost 9 years old. According to the European Commission, the Euro 7 standard will now regulate pollutant emission limits for all types of vehicles, regardless of the type of drive (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, all-electric, etc.). So far, these are only proposals from the European Commission, which are currently being negotiated and are scheduled to come be applied on July 1, 2025. With these proposals, the European Commission aims to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions by 35%, brake particles by 27% and exhaust particles by 13% compared to the Euro 6 standard, while the cost increase for the consumer should only be between €90 and €150, according to the European Commission.
- What are the main evolutions of Euro 7 for passenger cars: For vehicles with internal combustion engines, the changes occur more in the measurement conditions than in the pollutant values. The emission values must remain the same after 10 years and 200,000 kilometers of use. Brake and tire emission standards have been introduced for all vehicle types (internal combustion and electric): Particulates from brakes and microplastics from tires. For BEVs, specific battery capacity durability standards were also introduced: 80% of original capacity after 5 years (or 100,000 km) and 70% of original capacity after 8 years (or 160,000 km).
- What do the Euro 7 standards mean for carmakers? The question for them is what objective new standards will serve, given their commitment to launch only electric vehicles in Europe from 2030 (for most of them) and the fact that the CO2 regulation for 2035 will confirm the end of internal combustion vehicles in Europe anyway. However, some brands will continue to produce internal combustion engines on a large scale for countries that have not legislated strict laws to switch to electric vehicles. From the European Commission's perspective, however, there is a long period between now and 2035 during which the automotive industry will need to improve emissions reductions from its vehicles, including BEVs. It is also not certain whether carmakers will be able to achieve their goal of selling only BEVs after 2030, or whether the European Commission will actually be able to really apply the CO2 regulation from 2035.
- What consequences for the European market in terms of motorization? The Euro 7 standards themselves are not dramatically more restrictive compared to Euro 6, but the test conditions are. So the question is, will today's mass-produced, purely combustion-powered vehicles be able to meet these future standards, or will only electrified powertrains be able to do so? Will it be necessary to equip all internal combustion engine vehicles with 48V mild hybrid technology? Will this standard favor PHEVs and HEVs more, even temporarily before the introduction of the CO2 regulation in 2035?
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