Would an « Electric » branch in Renault-Nissan group make sense?

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Would an « Electric » branch in Renault-Nissan group make sense?
 

- The Renault -Nissan group is present in the field of electric car with Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, Renault Fluence ZE, Kangoo ZE, Twizy and now Samsung SM3 ZE,  i.e. under three different brands, which will soon become four with the arrival of Infinity.


- The Renault-Nissan group has sold  altogether nearly 120,000 electric cars in three years ( 83 000 Nissan models  and 36 500 Renault models), from September 2010 to September 2013 .


- The French-Japanese group has set a target of 400,000 sales for 2015.


- The creation of a specific electric vehicle branch could be an efficient way  to reach such an ambitious target, taking advantage of:

• A differentiation of  images:  combustion vehicles with a “classic” image  and electric vehicles with an "innovative" image.

• The concentration, under one direction, of resources dedicated to research, production and distribution of these vehicles.


- In China, big potential market for electric vehicles, several carmakers have recently created new brands exclusively dedicated to electric cars: Zinoro (Joint Venture between BMW and Brilliance ), Huaqi (JV between Dongfeng and Kia), Denza (JV between Daimler and BYD), and Venucia (JV between Dongfeng and Nissan ). 

 
 
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What growth opportunities for carmakers?

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What growth opportunities for carmakers?
 
- Currently, mature markets are replacement markets and emerging markets are initial equipment markets. If they want to maintain their global growth, carmakers must turn to new emerging countries over the coming years. In the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), key positions have already been allocated.

- In saturated and low developing markets, growth opportunities are therefore in new emerging countries, i.e. countries which have developped after the BRIC countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South America (excluding Brazil).

- These new markets, although smaller than those of BRIC countries,  are expected to rise at an annual growth rate of over 10% per year  in next years.
They should represent nearly 20% of global sales by 2020 (ie. about 20 million vehicles in 2020), against 15% in 2013.

- In addition, BRIC countries are currently showing a weaker growth momentum: the Russian market declined by 6.4% since the beginning of the year, India declined by 7.7%, Brazil declined by 2.8%. Only China prances with sales up by 14% since the beginning of the year.

- Although the BRIC countries still reserve significant potential growth over the next decade, medium term growth lays elsewhere.
 
 
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The Saudi market is expected to reach 780,000 units in 2013

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The Saudi market is expected to reach 780,000 units in 2013
 

- Saudi light vehicle market is expected to reach 780,000 units in 2013 (+ 12.5% compared to 2012), and constantly grow to one million units in 2017, a level comparable to the Spanish market. This is an emerging market with great potential, arriving just  behind the BRIC.


- In 2013, passenger car sales are expected to reach 610,000 units , up 15 %, and light commercial vehicles to 170,000 units, up 5%. The total market would therefore reach 780,000 units.


- This market is dominated by Toyota , which achieved 41.5 % of sales, followed by Hyundai-Kia (17.5% market share) and Ford (6.0% market share). These three companies account for two thirds of the market.


- The country could also become a major regional production place over the next few years, if demand continues to grow. Representatives of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry met with representatives of GM , Ford and Chrysler, to discuss conditions of setting up local production sites.


- Until now , the only plant located in Saudi Arabia is the Isuzu truck plant , whose annual production capacity is 25,000 units. The Tata Motors Group , via Jaguar/Land Rover is also planning to build a production plant (with a  50 000 units per year capacity).

 
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Major countries PC monthly production 2006-2013

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Major countries PC monthly production 2006-2013
 
- The evolution of monthly car production gives a detailed picture which enables a better understanding of the seasonality of various markets as well as specific moments of disruptions (reverse trends going upwards or downwards).

- When observing the trends we are now seeing:
- That in Europe, there is a drop in production in 2009 and stagnation in production from 2010 that meets the local market decrease.
- In Asia, increases in China and India are spectacular, meeting a rise in local market demand. Japan stagnates, the country is victim of a sluggish domestic market. Korea is midway between these two dynamics (moderate growth).
- In America, after the sharp drop in 2009 , since 2010 the increases in the USA, Mexico and Brazil are undeniable, while Canada stagnates (transfer of production to the USA and Mexico).
- Finally, Russia and Turkey remain immature producing countries where evolution is unstable, due to a fluctuating local market.
 
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Renault-Samsung launch their first electric car

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Renault-Samsung launch their first electric car
 
- The Renault-Nissan group has started actively in the marketing of electric vehicles. Nissan offers the Leaf of which 83 000 copies have been sold since its launch (Japan, USA, Europe), Renault offers the Zoe, of which 8 000 copies have been sold since its launch (in Europe), but also the Fluence ZE, Kangoo ZE and Twizy.

- Renault-Samsung completes the groups catalog of electric vehicles with the launch of the SM3 ZE, which is made from a Renault Fluence with a Samsung front grill and logo.

- The sedan produced in Busan, will cost 45 million won (31 150€), but subsidies and various tax advantages granted by the Korean government and by certain regions may bring the vehicle down to a competitive price of 19 million won (13,150 euros).

- The Korean subsidiary of Renault plans to produce 1 000 SM3 ZE, in 2013 and 4 000 annually from 2014. It hopes to dominate the Korean market for electric cars.

- Renault-Samsung is the second Korean manufacturer to produce an electric model after Kia that introduced the Ray EV in 2012. Kia only made 90 Ray EV in 2013 against 630 in 2012. It plans to launch an electric version of the Soul as well as an electric compact sedan in 2014. Korea currently has 1 200 charging stations (5 000 in France).
 
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