Indian automobile market and production 2015 forecast

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Indian automobile market and production 2015 forecast
 
- In 2014, India's automobile (PC+UV) market is forecast to be on par with that of last year at 3.25 million units. While economic recovery was expected after the new government led by Narendra Modi took office in May 2014, the market did not respond as forecast despite reduced automobile commodity tax and lower fuel prices.

- In 2015, market recovery is anticipated in India based on dropping crude oil price and stable inflation. Sales are projected to reach 3.35 million-3.4 million units. The government's commodity tax reduction measure on some automobile types, which is scheduled to end at the end of 2014, may continue in 2015 which is expected to boost demand.

- By carmaker, Maruti-Suzuki (Suzuki ownership) remains the leader of the Indian market, with nearly 1.2 million registered vehicles in 2014, accounting for 36% of the market last year. Followed by the local group Tata Motors that sells almost three times fewer vehicles (14% of the market). Tata is ahead of the Korean Hyundai-Kia group, which also manufactures on-site (13% of the market) and Mahindra, another local producer (12% of the market). Other carmakers (Honda, Toyota, Renault-Nissan, Ford, VW, GM) are detached and each of them account for less than 6% of the Indian market, even if their ambitions are much greater ...

- In 2014, India's production volume is forecast to decline 0.7 percent to 3.85 million units, dropping  for the  second consecutive   year. Amid   a   lukewarm recovery    of    the  domestic     market, primarily  commercial  vehicle  manufacturers, which were especially hit by the market slowdown, were forced to implement production adjustment.

- In  2015,  anticipated  production improvement especially by passenger vehicle makers and export to Africa, the  Middle East and elsewhere are projected to boost production in 2015 by 2.8 percent compared to the forecast level of 2014 to 3.96 million units.
 

15-02-2  

 

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Korean automobile market and production 2015 forecast

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Korean automobile market and production 2015 forecast
 
- In Korea, new imported models and reduced tariff due to the Korea-EU FTA boosted imported automobile sales, becoming the drivers of the market.  As a result, the automobile market (PC+UV) is forecast to increase 4.6 percent in 2014 compared to the previous year to 1.61 million units.

- In 2015, specific consumption tax rate is scheduled to be reduced from 6 percent to 5 percent on some automobiles and tariff is planned to be lowered on automobiles imported from the EU. As a result, salesare expected to keep expanding driven by imported models. Under these circumstances, the market is projected to reach 1.65 million units, surpassing 1996's record high level of 1.64 million units.

- In 2014, Korea's production volume is forecast to fall 1.6 percent to around 4.45 million units. The decline is attributed to strikes at Hyundai Motor and other automakers and shrinking export to Europe by GM Korea.

- In 2015, production volume is projected to recover to 4.5 million units. In September 2014, Renault Nissan began production under contract of the Nissan Rogue for the US market with an annual scale of 80,000 units; however, declining export of GM Korea to Europe, lowered overall increase.
 

15-02-3  

 

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The US market for PC + LUV increased by 5.9% in 2014 (1/2-General)

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The US market for PC + LUV increased by 5.9% in 2014 (1/2-General)
 

- The US market grew by 5.9% over the whole year 2014, to reach 16 531 688 PC + LUV (against 15 604 325 units in 2013). Let us recall that in the US SUVs, minivans and pickups are included in the category of light utility vehicles (LUV).


- 2014 figures mark the fifth year of growth since the catastrophic year it experienced in 2009. The US market today is poised to regain record high levels of 2000-2001 which had exceeded 17 million units.


- When observing the chart below, we can see that the US market is relatively cyclical, with strong periodic variations (note the large declines in 1974-1975, 1980-1981, 1990-1991 and 2009).


- Since the US market grew by almost 1 million units between 2013 and 2014, it is not impossible that it keeps going and reaches a new record in 2015 of 17.5 million units; given there has been no noticeable sign of slowing down.


- The carmaker ranking did not change in 2014 compared to 2013. The GM group remains by far the market leader (with nearly 3 million vehicles) ahead of the Ford group (2.5 million vehicles), the Toyota Group (2.4 million) and the Fiat-Chrysler group (2.1 million). Followed by far by the Honda group (1.5 million), Renault-Nissan (1.4 million), Hyundai-Kia (1.3 million). Then, again very far behind the Volkswagen group, Subaru, BMW, Daimler and Mazda. Only Ford and Volkswagen have sold fewer vehicles in 2014 than in 2013.

 

15-01-9  

 

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Asia Automobile Sales/Production: Decline in 2014 and moderate Recovery Forecast for 2015

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Asia Automobile Sales/Production: Decline in 2014 and moderate Recovery Forecast for 2015
 

- Automobile sales (PC+UV) volume of 12 countries in Asia (Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) is forecast to drop 2.2 percent from last year to 8.72 million units. Thailand declined 30 percent due to a sluggish market triggered by the First Car purchase incentive program, which ate away future demand, and by political instability. Meanwhile India's automobile market is forecast to be on par with that of last year despite expectations of economic recovery after the new government took office.


- In 2015, Asian sales are projected to go up 4 percent to nearly 9.1 million units. Market recovery is anticipated in India based on dropping crude oil price and stable inflation. Meanwhile, increased fuel prices in Indonesia are projected to keep sales on the same level as last year.


- Automobile production (PC+UV) volume of 9 countries in Asia (Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Pakistan) is forecast to drop three percent from last  year to 12.92  million units, falling below 13 million units for the first time in three years. Thailand's sluggish domestic demand and weak export pushed down overall production of Asia. Production weakened further by decline in Korea due to walkouts and by India's slight decrease.


- In 2015, driven by rising volume in Indonesia, production is projected to go up 6 percent from last year to 13.75 million units, increasing for the first time in three years.

 

15-02-1  

 

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The US market for PC + LUV increased by 5.9% in 2014 (2/2-Models)

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The US market for PC + LUV increased by 5.9% in 2014 (2/2-Models)
 
- In 2014, the carmakers that have made most progress in the US market were Subaru, Fiat-Chrysler and Renault-Nissan. Only Ford and Volkswagen declined in 2014 compared to 2013.

- Regarding the breakdown by model, the Ford pick up F-Series retains its leading position in the US market. This has been the case in this market for more than thirty years. The different versions of the model and the development of competitors have not changed that position.

- The Chevrolet Silverado pick up (main competition for the Ford F-Series) maintains its second place. More than 200 000 sales set these two models apart. The Dodge Ram pickup retains its third place, 100 000 sales apart from the Ram Silverado. The top three has been the same for twenty years, large pickups being Americans' favourite models.

- The next four places are occupied by passenger cars (sedans). In fourth place we have the Toyota Camry (segment D) followed by the Honda Accord (segment D), Toyota Corolla (segment C) and Nissan Altima (segment D).

- Then come the Honda CRV SUV (segment C), which is the best-selling SUV in the US, the Honda Civic (sedan segment C) which is the direct competitor to the Toyota Corolla. In fact, six Japanese cars are in the top 10 (all locally produced). In 10th place, we have the Ford Fusion, the best-selling American sedan in the US in 2014.
 

15-01-10  

 

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  1. The German PC market  increased by 2.9% in 2014 (1/2-General)
  2. The UK PC market increased by 9.3% in 2014 (1/2-General)
  3. The Italian market for PCs increased by 4.3% in 2014 (1/2-General)
  4. The Italian PC market increased by 4.3% in 2014 (2/2 Carmakers)
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