Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (1/3-registrations)

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Consequences of the ECB decision on the automotive production and automotive market in the Euro zone (1/3-registrations)
 

- The announcement by the European Central Bank (ECB) to inject 60 billion euros per month until 2016 in the European economy for the redemption of government debt, is intended for all economic players. Through this mechanism, two notable effects are expected among other things: an increase in loans to businesses and households by banks and a decline of the Euro as a result of the creation of money.


- What are the possible effects of these decisions on the car market and car carmakers present in and outside the euro area? In theory, PC + LCV registrations in the euro area, which account for over 60% of the registration of the European Union, are expected to grow through access to credit by households (for PC) and fleet (for PC + LCV).


- However, it is necessary to qualify this, firstly because the measures of the ECB will not take effect until March and therefore the impact on household and business consumption will not be seen straight away, secondly because interest rates are already low in France and Germany, and down in Italy, Spain and Portugal.


- Finally, it should not overshadow the economic environment and the structure of a mature European car market that is also affected by other factors (transport use , ecology, politics ...) The example shown by other countries (such as Japan) who used the "quantitative easing" (or QE) without a significant effect on the growth of the automobile market, urges us to be cautious in our forecasts. At best the market could experience a momentary growth in sales or simply a surge in growth at the right time, and would have similar effects as would a "scrapping bonus".


- It is why Inovev maintains its forecast of a 2% growth in sales of passenger car and light commercial vehicle in 2015 in the EU market.


15-03-7  

 

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Japanese manufacturers production in Japan and around the world

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Japanese manufacturers production in Japan and around the world
 

- In 2005, the share of Japanese production in Japan was 55%. In 2013, this share fell to 42%. Japanese carmakers indeed produced 20.6 million vehicles worldwide last year, including 8.6 million vehicles in Japan and 12 million outside of Japan.


- Toyota produced 9.8 million vehicles worldwide, of which 4.3 million in Japan (44% of world production).


- Honda has produced 4.2 million vehicles worldwide; of which 0.84 million in Japan (20% of world production).


- Suzuki produced 2.7 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.98 million in Japan (37% of world production).


- Mazda has produced 1.3 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.97 million in Japan (74% of world production).


- Mitsubishi has produced 1.2 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.69 million in Japan (55% of world production).


- Subaru has produced 0.8 million vehicles worldwide, of which 0.64 million in Japan (79% of world production).


- The most internationalised Japanese carmakers (through plants installed worldwide) are therefore Honda (China, USA) and Suzuki (India). Toyota comes next because its Daihatsu subsidiary is mainly based in Japan. The least internationalized groups are Subaru, Mazda and Mitsubishi, which are also the three smaller Japanese carmakers.


- NB: Nissan is incorporated by Inovev as a manufacturer controlled by Renault, and therefore is French.


15-03-5  

 

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The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (2/2 - Carmakers)

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The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (2/2 - Carmakers)
 

- If the European market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (PC market), carmakers have not all benefited from this growth. The two carmakers that experienced the strongest growth were Mitsubishi (+ 26%) and Mazda (+ 18.8%) but these are low volume carmakers. With larger volumes, the one that experienced the largest increase was the Renault-Nissan group (12.9%), thanks to Dacia (+ 23.3%), Nissan (+ 13%) and Renault (+ 9.1%). Followed by the Geely Group (+ 10.5%), thanks to its Volvo subsidiary (10.5%), the Volkswagen group (+ 7.4%), Tata Motors (+ 6.1%), thanks to its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (+ 6.1%). Finally, the Ford group (+ 5%), the BMW Group (+ 4.9%), the Daimler Group (+ 3.7%), PSA (+ 3.6%), the Fiat-Chrysler group (+ 3.1%), the Toyota group (+ 3%) and Hyundai-Kia (+ 2.3%) grew significantly less than the European market as a whole and thus lost market share.


- Only the GM Group sold fewer vehicles in 2014 compared to 2013 (-4.6%), but only because of the removal of the Chevrolet brand in the European market, the increase in sales of Opel (7.3 %) was not enough to offset the fall in sales of Chevrolet (-73.1%) during the same period.


- By 2015 Inovev expects a moderate growth in the European market of about 2% to about 13.25 million PC. The breakdown by manufacturer has not yet been analysed.


15-03-3  

 

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The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (1/2 - General)

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The European PC market (29 countries) increased by 5.5% in 2014 (1/2 - General)
 
- After six years of decline, the European PC market (29 countries) restarted in 2014, showing an increase of 5.5% in 2014 reaching 12 997 000 units (against 12 314 000 in 2013). Yet it is still far from the pre-crisis figures close to 16 million units, for example in 2006 and 2007.

- The three million PC units will be difficult to reach again in the coming years, Inovev forecasts a modest recovery scenario from the European market between 2014 and 2020 (forecast of 14 million sales in 2019).

- As noted above, Spain and Italy remain far below the levels their market reached before the crisis, while England has regained previous levels, thanks to very good economic conditions. France and Germany are between these two extremes.

- Overall, Western Europe (17 countries) increased less in 2014 than in Eastern Europe, 4.8% against 16.5%, respectively, but it is true that Eastern Europe decreased much more between 2007 and 2013 (35% against 22% for the western part). The second half (+ 4.5%) was slightly worse than the first (+ 6.5%), and Inovev expects that the two first quarters of 2015 will experience lower growth than in 2014.


15-03-2  

 

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The Australian PC + LUV market declined by 2% in 2014 (1/2)

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The Australian PC + LUV market declined by 2% in 2014 (1/2)
 
- The Australian PC + LUV market declined by 2.0% in 2014 compared to 2013, to 1 081 899 units. Sedans totalled at 531 596 units (-6.1%), SUVs 352 347 units (+ 5.6%) and light trucks (vans and pickups) 197 956 units (- 3.2%). The Australian market has limited its decline through the increase in SUV sales a segment that now represents 32% of the market, however even this could not fully offset the decline in sales of sedans and light trucks. Sales to individuals (PCs) remained stable while fleet sales declined by 6.6%.

- The ten best-selling brands in the Australian market were: Toyota (203 501 sales, 18.3% of the market), Holden - owned by GM - (106 000 sales, 9.5% of the market), Mazda (101 000 sales, 9%), Hyundai (100 000 sales, 7%), Ford (80 000 sales, 7.2%), Mitsubishi (69 000 sales, 6.2%), Nissan (66 000 sales, 6%), Volkswagen (55 000 sales, 5%), Subaru (40 000 sales, 3.6%) and Honda (33 000 sales, 3%).

- This classification requires some more details: Toyota, Holden and Ford are the last brands that still produce vehicles in Australia. There is therefore a positive effect induced by "local production" for Toyota and Holden that are the market leaders.

- On the other side, it should be noted that the three manufacturers will terminate  their car production in the country over the next two years: 2016 for Ford and 2017 for Holden and Toyota. In 2018, all vehicles sold in Australia will be imported from North America, Asia and even Europe.
 

15-02-8  

 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

  1. The Russian PC+LUV market fell by 10.3% in 2014 (1/2)
  2. The UK PC market increased by 9.3% in 2014 (2/2-Carmakers)
  3. The Japanese PC+LUV market increased by 3.5% in 2014
  4. Pakistan Market: Drops Below 140,000 Units in 2014; Levelling Off Is Expected for 2015
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