US Market is down in the first quarter of 2017
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US Market is down in the first quarter of 2017
- The US market is down (- 1.4%) in the first quarter of 2017, a modest decline but it is the first since 2010. It could be possible that the US market will decline over the whole of 2017 after seven years of uninterrupted growth. Inovev nevertheless maintains its two growth scenarios for the year 2017, published at the beginning of the year (see graph below).
- In the first quarter of 2017, the 6.5% increase in sales of light trucks (SUVs, Pick-up, pickup trucks) could not quite compensate for the 12.4% decline in sales of passenger cars (sedans, station wagons, coupes, cabriolets).
- The share of light trucks in US vehicle sales thus increased from 58% in the first quarter of 2016 to 63% in the first quarter of 2017, while that of passenger cars decreased from 42% to 37% at the same time. Sales of light trucks could soon reach two out of three sales, which has never happened to date.
- Manufacturers that continued to grow in the first quarter of 2017 were Tesla (+ 35.9%), Tata Motors (+ 21.1%), Volkswagen Group (+ 9.0%), Subaru (+ 9.0% ), Mazda (+ 6.8%), Renault-Nissan (+ 4.8%), Daimler Group (+ 3.9%), Honda Group (+ 2.1%), GM Group (+ 0.9%), BMW Group (+ 0.6%). Manufacturers that lost market share include: Ford Group (- 4.4%), Toyota Group (- 6.4%), FCA Group (- 7.1%), Hyundai-Kia Group (- 7.2%) and Geely Group (- 29.8%).
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Russian market increases in the first quarter of 2017
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Russian market increases in the first quarter of 2017
- After four years of uninterrupted decline, the Russian market finally seems to be rallying in the early part of 2017, since in the first quarter it has reversed the trend and is growing by 1.1%, which is a modest , but is nonetheless the first quarterly increase since 2012.
- As a result, manufacturers' forecasts in Russia have been adjusted upwards and show a market of 1.5 million units (VP + LCV) for 2017, against a market of 1.425 million units in 2016 and 1.6 million in 2015.
- Inovev for its part maintains its growth scenario published at the beginning of the year with a 2017 market at + 5%.
- However, not all manufacturers are faring alike :
• Some experienced increasing sales in the first quarter of 2017 : Mazda (+ 15.2%), PSA Group (+ 13.2%), Hyundai-Kia Group (+ 8.7%), Renault-Nissan Group (+5.6% with +8% for LADA, Russia’s leading brand), Tata Group (+ 4.8%), GM Group (+ 4.7%), Volkswagen Group (+ 1.8%).
• Others saw their sales continue their decline in the first quarter of 2017: Ford Group (-3.8%), BMW Group (-6.2%), Toyota Group (-8.5%), Daimler Group (-11, 7%), FCA Group (-16.6%), Geely Group (-40.0%).
- Renault-Nissan remains largely the leader of the Russian market with 36.5% of PDM in the first quarter of 2017.
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Baojun+Wuling produce more than Opel+Vauxhall since 2012
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Baojun+Wuling produce more than Opel+Vauxhall since 2012
- Since 2008, the US group GM owns 44% of Wuling, the Chinese manufacturer of minivans. The Baojun brand, created by Wuling and dedicated to sedans, SUVs and MPVs, dates from 2010. The Wuling and Baojun brands are integrated in the GM group since the early 2000s.
- In 2016, the Baojun and Wuling brands produced and sold 1,865,000 vehicles (including 1,070,000 Wuling and 795,000 Baojun), compared to 1,798,000 units in 2015 and 1,580,000 in 2014. Although Wuling sales have experienced some decline since 2015 (due to the absence of SUVs in its range), Baojun brand sales largely offset this decline.
- In 2016, Wuling and Baojun accounted for nearly one-fifth of the GM's global sales, and have been steadily increasing over the past ten years (5% of GM sales in 2006, 14% in 2010 and 19% in 2016). At the same time, the European Opel-Vauxhall business has continued to decline (18% of GM sales in 2006, 15% in 2010 and 12% in 2016). In addition, the growth potential of vehicle sales in China is much higher than that of vehicle sales in Europe, which means that Wuling and Baojun's share of overall GM sales will continue to increase in future years. It could soon reach one in four.
- The two market evolutions explain among other factors why GM decided to focus on these Chinese brands and to cede the Opel and Vauxhall European brands to PSA.
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Borgward will double production capacities in 2018
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Borgward will double production capacities in 2018
- Borgward, which was relaunched by China's BAIC last year, will double its production capacity in China from 201,000 vehicles a year in 2017 to 360,000 a year in 2018. Since last fall, in its Miyun plant (in the suburbs of Beijing), Borgward has been producing the BX7 (D Segment SUV), at 6,500 units a month (i.e. 80,000/year), and will launch the BX5 (segment C SUV). Several other models will subsequently be launched.
- In addition, Borgward confirms the construction of a factory in Germany in 2017, located in Bremen, the historic site of the Borgward brand, which manufactured more than one million cars between 1931 and 1961.
- The brand intends to return to Europe with 100% electric vehicles. The first model produced in Bremen will therefore be a 100% electric version of the BX7. The Borgward plant in Bremen will be the first automotive production site created in Germany since the opening of the BMW and Porsche factories in Leipzig some fifteen years ago. The new Borgward plant in Bremen will be calibrated for a production of 10 000 electric cars a year, i.e. a volume twice that of the recently closed plants of Great Wall in Bulgaria or MG in Great Britain.
- The challenge for Borgward is whether European customers will consider them as either a German brand or a Chinese brand, which will make for very different results.
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Renault aims to produce 400 000 cars in Iran in 2020
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Renault aims to produce 400 000 cars in Iran in 2020
- The Renault group has had less presence on the Iranian market than the PSA group. It is mainly as of 2007, with the arrival of the Logan (Tondar) on the Iranian assembly lines, that the Renault group really increased its presence in the country. From 15,000 units produced in 2007, production gradually reached 95,000 units in 2012, a figure that was lower than that of the PSA group at the same time.
- However, Tondar production continued at a slower pace in the years 2013-2015 (40,000 units per year) whereas PSA was forced to cease production during this period.
- In early 2016, to expand its range, Renault started production of the Sandero in Iran. Renault's production in the country then surpassed 100,000 units/year for the first time, to reach a volume of 108,000 cars. PSA, which had restarted production in Iran in 2016, reached a volume of 233,000 units produced in the country, double the volume of Renault.
- Renault is counting on the arrival of the Duster and Kwid on the Iranian assembly lines to exceed 200,000 units in 2018 and 400,000 per year in 2020, thus approaching the PSA group (20% market share against 26% for the PSA group at that time). Inovev predicts 330,000 units produced in 2020 (see graph).
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