The European light vehicle market is expected to increase very slightly in 2023
- 说明
The European light vehicle market is expected to increase very slightly in 2023
- The European market (European Union + Great Britain + Switzerland + Norway) for light vehicles (passenger cars and utility vehicles) fell for the third consecutive time in 2022 (-6% compared to 2021) to 12.9 million units. But is this market fated to decline again in 2023? Inovev has established three forecast scenarios for 2023: A low scenario in which the market is almost stable (-0.7%), a reference scenario with a very slight increase of the market (+1%) and a high scenario with a significant increase of 4%.
- It can be observed that the very poor situation in the first half of 2022 (compared to the first half of 2021) has greatly improved in the second half. The recovery started in August (+3.4%) and amplified in September (+7.9%), in October (+14%), in November (+17.6%) and in December (+ 14.7%).
- Basically the dynamics of the market should not change drastically in 2023 compared to 2022, given the economic and political environment which should not evolve strongly this year. We should therefore be able to reach a volume of slightly more than 13 million units in our reference scenario. A figure still far from the 17.3 million reached in 2019. More significan market growth could however occur from 2024 with an expected increase of 5 to 6%.
- Regarding sales of xEVs in Europe, Inovev estimates that for 2022 around 1.4 million BEVs have been sold as well as 930,000 PHEVs and 920,000 HEVs and finally 1.4 million MHEVs. Total sales of xEVs in Europe therefore reached nearly 5 million units in 2022, or 45% of the European passenger car market compared to 41% in 2021, which suggests that we could reach the 50% mark in 2023.
The Russian passenger car market collapses by 58.8% in 2022 compared to 2021
- 说明
The Russian passenger car market collapses by 58.8% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Russian passenger car market collapsed by 58.8% in 2022 compared to 2021, to 687,370 units from 1,666,780, and this sharp drop is directly linked to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This situation caused the interruption of exports of European cars to Russia and the end of production of factories producing European cars in Russia, which then expanded to Japanese carmakers such as Toyota or Nissan. Only Korean carmakers remained (Hyundai, Kia). American carmakers (GM, Ford) left Russian territory several years ago.
- One of the consequences of the departure of European and Japanese carmakers was the separation of the Lada brand (Avtovaz) from the Renault-Nissan group as well as the resurrection of Moskvitch on the bases of Renault Russia.
- As a result, the carmakers that have maintain their presence dominate the Russian market, in particular the Chinese brands, which have seen their market share increase from 7% in 2021 to 20% in 2022 (i.e. a tripling of their market share), but their sales volumes however are also down.
- If the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues in 2023, it is certain that the share of Chinese carmakers will still increase sharply to reach around 40% this year, which will represent a doubling of their market share, not to mention new Moskvitch which are rebadged Chinese cars.
The Japanese passenger car market is down 6.2% in 2022 compared to 2021
- 说明
The Japanese passenger car market is down 6.2% in 2022 compared to 2021
- Japan's passenger car market fell again in 2022, the fifth consecutive decline since 2018. The decline reached 6.2% in 2022 compared to 2021, -3.5% in 2021 compared to 2020 and -11.4% in 2020 compared to 2019. In 2022, we fall back to the level of 2011, the weakest year of the decade for Japan.
- As for the other markets, the Japanese market seems to have suffered logistical problems linked to supply shortages, but this decline could also be explained by the aging of the population and the lower interest of consumers in acquiring a new vehicle, because the Japanese market has not only stopped growing for decades, but has been in constant decline.
- In 2022, 3.5 million passenger cars were therefore sold in Japan, 93% of which were local brands, as Japan still remaining a very closed country in terms of imports (only 7% of the market, a figure that does not vary not for several decades). It could be expected that the opening of imports to Japan could have instilled a new dynamism in the market, which could have stimulated the Japanese carmakers themselves. Until today, nothing is changing.
- In this context of a closed market, the Toyota group monopolizes 43% of the Japanese market, well ahead of its competitors Honda (16%), Suzuki (14%), Renault-Nissan (13%), Mazda (4%) and Subaru. (3%). One reason for Toyota's global leadership position is its strong position in its home market, where it sold 1.5 million passenger cars last year.
Turkish passenger car market grew by 5.5% in 2022 compared to 2021
- 说明
Turkish passenger car market grew by 5.5% in 2022 compared to 2021
- The Turkish passenger car market remained at a good level in 2022, with a volume of 592,660 units, representing an increase of 5.5% compared to 2021. The Turkish market returns to the level of 2020, but still remains distant of the period 2015-2017 when it exceeded 700,000 units per year.
- Lets remind that in 2008, the Turkish market had fallen to 300,000 units and had gradually begun a slow rise to the 700,000 units per year just mentioned. The Turkish market, often subject to economic uncertainties, had gradually fallen to 400,000 units in 2019, before rising again from 2020 to 2022.
- More generally, the last two years show that Turkey has not really suffered from the logistical problems announced by the various carmakers, nor from the semiconductor crisis, nor from the war in Ukraine. In addition, electrification is completely absent from the Turkish market today while the Turkish government this year launched the project of a new local 100% electric carmaker: Togg.
- Despite the departure of Honda last year, the Turkish market is supplied by carmakers producing locally such as Stellantis whose market share increases from 27% to 31% between 2021 and 2022, Renault-Nissan whose market share increases from 21 % to 23% or Hyundai-Kia whose market share goes from 9% to 11%. At Stellantis, the Fiat brand represents the bulk of sales in the Turkish market, which has remained a very present brand since the 1960s.
China's passenger vehicle market grew by 9.7% in 2022 compared to 2021
- 说明
China's passenger vehicle market grew by 9.7% in 2022 compared to 2021
- China's passenger car market grew by 9.7% in 2022 compared to 2021, even if several Covid19 lockdowns were introduced several times last year, which could have affected car sales and production. This 9.7% increase is therefore a good surprise as the Chinese passenger car market had already increased by 6.5% in 2021 compared to 2020. This is actually a second catch-up after that 2021, which followed three years of decline (-4.1% in 2018, -9.6% in 2019, -5.9% in 2020). The level of passenger car registrations therefore fell to 23.56 million units in 2022, compared to 21.48 million in 2021 and 20.18 million in 2020, but the records of 2016 (24.38 million) and 2017 ( 24.72 million) have not yet been reached.
- The Volkswagen group (with its JVs) remains the leader in the Chinese passenger car market, with 13% market share (against 14% in 2021), ahead of the GM-Wuling group (10% against 12% in 2021), but the two carmakers have been declining for several years. The Chinese BYD, which made a spectacular breakthrough, took third place (8% market share), ahead of Toyota (8%) and the Chinese Geely (7%) and Changan (6%). BYD is arguably the automaker that has benefited the most from the boom in electric car sales.
- The share of Western carmakers is gradually eroding, with Chinese customers increasingly turning to Chinese carmakers who hold 50.5% of the local market in 2022 (including 5.5% for Baojun and Wuling integrated into the GM group) which had never happened since the 1990s. This proportion should continue to grow over the next few years, which will make it increasingly difficult for foreign carmakers to maintain their activity, the most threatened today being Stellantis, Ford and Hyundai-Kia.