Future production of electric cars in Europe 2023-2030
- 说明
Future production of electric cars in Europe 2023-2030
- Austria: Only one model, the Jaguar I-Pace, has been produced here since 2018. Inovev expects production to increase 89% between 2023 (12,872 BEVs) and 2030 (24,315 BEVs).
- Belgium: BEV production here began in 2019 with the Audi E-Tron. Meanwhile, Volvo's C40 and XC40 BEV models are also produced here. Inovev expects production to increase 89% between 2023 (88,112 BEVs) and 2030 (166,447 BEVs).
- Czech Republic: a late bloomer in BEV production, but has caught up quickly with production of the Hyundai Kona from 2020 and the Skoda Enyaq from 2021. Inovev expects production to increase by 89% in the period 2023 (110,825 BEVs) to 2030 (209,351 BEVs).
- France: the European pioneer country in BEVs started early with the production of fully electric models, such as the Renault Zoe or the Smart Fortwo. Starting in 2023, new models such as the DS7 Crossback, Nissan Micra and Renault's R4, R5 and Scenic models will be produced in France. Inovev projects a 204% increase in production from 2023 (271,789 BEVs) to 2030 (826,908 BEVs).
- Germany: the European country where most vehicles are manufactured, will as such also play an important role in BEV production, if only because it will be Tesla's only European production site for the foreseeable future. Inovev expects production to increase by 81% in the period 2023 (665,274 BEVs) to 2030 (1,207,804 BEVs).
- Italy: Italy had a production of BEVs between 2012 and 2015 with the car sharing model Bluecar by Bollore. After it was discontinued, BEV production did not resume until 2020 with the Fiat 500e. Inovev expects production to increase by 29% between 2023 (148,160 BEVs) and 2030 (191,778 BEVs).
- Slovakia and Slovenia: Both countries produce BEVs whose production there will be discontinued in the future, such as the Peugeot 208 (EOP 2026) and the VW UP! (EOP 2025) In Slovakia and the E-Twingo (EOP 2024) in Slovenia. Since the automotive future in Europe is likely to be electric, these countries will need to find replacements quickly.
- Spain: BEV production started there in 2014, with the Nissan NV200 LUV. Still with rather mediocre production figures, Spain has the potential to become the most important production location for BEVs in Europe. From 2025 the new models Cupras, Tavascan and Urban Rebel will be produced, from 2026 the production of the electric Peugeot 208 will be moved from Slovakia to Spain. AB 2025, production of the VW ID2 is also scheduled to start. Inovev expects production to increase by 1,187% in the period 2023 (127,476 BEVs) to 2030 (1,640,292 BEVs).
- United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, the Nissan Leaf was the first BEV produced in 2012.It was followed by the Opel (Vauxhall) Vivaro and Mini electric models. Inovev expects production to increase 89% between 2023 (65,536 BEVs) and 2030 (123,797 BEVs), thanks to electric models from Jaguar and Land Rover.
- Europe's car production is going electric, and according to environmental development, competition from Asia, and EU regulations on emission levels, it must become so. Inovev expects production in Europe to increase by 175% between 2023 (1,596,472 BEVs) and 2030 (4,390,692 BEVs). Spain, Germany and France will become by far the most important European production locations for all-electric vehicles in the future.
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What share will the various segments have in future European automobile production?
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What share will the various segments have in future European automobile production?
- According to Inovev's analyses, entry-level segment A had already finally collapsed in 2020. Inovev does not expect production to increase again; on the contrary, it will be reduced further. The A segment will become increasingly less important, especially for expensive BEVs.
- Inovev expects production in the lower B segment to more than recover after the slump in the Corona crisis. With an estimated volume of around 4.8 million vehicles, it will be the segment with the highest production in Europe in 2030. In all-electric vehicles (BEVs), it is the most important segment and will be able to expand its share of European production to over 50% by 2030.
- Production of the mid-size C segment is expected by Inovev to recover after the Corona crisis slump, but will not reach the pre-crisis level of over 6 million vehicles. With an estimated volume of about 4.5 million vehicles, it will be the second strongest segment in 2030 European production and the most important segment in the production of vehicles with internal combustion engines.
- Production of the lower premium D segment is expected by Inovev to recover after the slump in the Corona crisis, but will not reach the pre-crisis level of over 2 million vehicles.
- Inovev expects production in the upper premium class E segment to recover somewhat after the sharp downturn in the Corona crisis, but to remain at a level of around 900,000 in the future.
- As the luxury segment F as well as sports cars is a small but stable niche market, Inovev does not expect any major changes.
- According to Inovev's expectations, production of light commercial vehicles will increase slightly before production starts to decline again from 1.8 to 1.5 million vehicles from 2027. The internal combustion engine will remain the most important drive in this segment.
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Production forecast France 2023-2030
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Production forecast France 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest forecast for passenger car (PC) and light truck (LUV) production in France assumes that production volumes will recover from 2023 onwards. French car production had fallen to a low point in 2022, following extremely poor years in 2020 and 2021 due to the Corona crisis (2020) and the semiconductor crisis (2021). In 2022, these crises are compounded by the consequences of the war in Ukraine. Overall, French automotive production (PCs+LUVs) has fallen from 2.2 million units in 2019 to less than 1.5 million units in 2020, 2021 and 2022.
- The catch-up process, which will take place between 2023 and 2027, depends on the end of the semiconductor crisis and the end of the war in Ukraine. This is Inovev's reference scenario, and France should return to the level of 2 million vehicles produced per year between 2027 and 2030.
- This catch-up will be all the more possible because, on the one hand, Renault has decided to concentrate its production of electric vehicles in France (in the Hauts de France region: Douai and Maubeuge) and, since sales of electric cars will increase sharply (thus meeting the European Commission's request), the Hauts de France region will see a sharp increase in its car production. In addition, Renault has announced that they plan to produce 700,000 vehicles in France by 2030. Finally, Stellantis has decided to put an end to relocations. The future Peugeot 3008 and 5008 will be produced in France, as will the 308, 408 and 508 models.
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Chinese OEMs invest in Thailand
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Chinese OEMs invest in Thailand
- Until now, the market and production of automobiles in Southeast Asia has been firmly in the hands of Japanese manufacturers. Thailand's announcements that it will only allow sales of all-electric vehicles (BEVs) from 2035 and offer customers strong incentives in the form of subsidies and tax benefits opens the door for Chinese manufacturers who already have experience in the category and with models attractive to the Asian market.
- Great Wall was the first to respond, planning battery production for its Rayong plant starting in 2023. In turn, the group was able to lower its purchase prices with the subsidies, so the Ora Good Cat now costs only the equivalent of €20.175. BEV production there is expected to grow from 80,000 to 120,000 vehicles annually. SAIC (owner of MG) is planning to invest in a battery factory that will start production in 2023. BYD, currently the largest electric vehicle manufacturer in China, does not yet have local production in Thailand, but is panting for BEV and PHEV production in the Rayong region starting in 2024. Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has also announced investments in Thailand to produce BEVs for other corporations. Foxconn has partnered with Thai petroleum company PPT in this effort.
- On the Japanese side, all that is known so far is that Toyota's BEV bZ4x is receiving subsidies. However, there is currently no information on the form and extent of the expansion of local production required for the subsidy. Honda and Nissan produce hybrid vehicles in Thailand, and have not yet made any announcements about switching to BEV production. It remains to be seen whether Chinese manufacturers can seize the opportunity and become the first Southeast Asian country to break Japanese dominance in Thailand.
- Of the European manufacturers, only Daimer/Mecredes in Bangkok and BMW in Rayong are represented with battery production facilities for plug-in hybrid vehicles. It remains to be seen whether they will switch production to receive benefits from the Thai government.
- The fledgling manufacturer VinFast from Vietnam, is unlikely to have the capacity to set up BEV production in Thailand and is more likely to focus on its current search for a BEV production site in Europe. However, it must expect a competitive disadvantage in Thailand, as only manufacturers with local production will receive the subsidies and thus be able to lower prices.
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Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- 说明
Production forecast Germany 2023-2030
- Inovev's latest production forecasts for passenger cars (PC)+ light utility vehicules (LUV) in Germany are rather pessimistic, as Germany will never again reach the level of 2010-2017, i.e. a volume of 6 million vehicles per year, but only 4 million vehicles per year.
- These forecasts take into account a catch-up from 2023 onwards, after a very poor performance in 2020, 2021 and 2022 due to the Corona crisis (in 2020), the semiconductor crisis (in 2021) and then the consequences of the war in Ukraine (in 2022). German automotive production (PC+LUV) thus fell from 5 million units in 2019 to less than 3.5 million units in 2021 and 2022.
- Other factors worked against German production, such as relocations (which occurred later than in France), the reduction of exports to China (in favor of local production), the difficulty of manufacturers to switch from fossil combustion engines to electric cars and probably to produce fewer but more expensive vehicles. This factor has probably contributed to a decrease in production volume at Volkswagen, Audi, BMW and Mercedes. In addition, there is the collapse of the American brands based in Germany (Opel and Ford). Ford, for example, has planned to close its Saarlouis plant in the near future. Symbolizing the end of German supremacy, the Volkswagen Golf has not been the best-selling model in Europe since 2022, and the ID3 is not the most popular electric car in Europe as announced.
- Inovev expects 4 million vehicles to be produced annually in Germany between 2024 and 2030.
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