The US middle and heavy truck market is stabilizing over the first 4 months of 2023

The middle and heavy truck market in the USA stands at 160,000 units over the first 4 months of 2023, which augurs for a volume of approximately 480,000 units over the whole year, compared to 475,000 units in 2022, 460,000 in 2021 and 410,000 in 2020.
The 
truck market in the USA is therefore stabilizing after a strong increase recorded between 2020 and 2022 (+16%). We are in fact returning to pre-Covid levels.

This stabilization of the truck market in the USA contrasts with the 10% increase in US sales of passenger cars (including SUVs and MPVs) and pick-ups over the same period. 

The leading truck brand in the USA remains Freightliner which is a subsidiary of Daimler Trucks and which holds 34% of the market. The International brand of the Navistar group (subsidiary of Volkswagen) is second, with 14% of the market, followed by Ford (12%), Peterbilt (9%) and Kenworth (9%). These last two brands form the Paccar group, which should not be confused with the former luxury car brand Packard, which ceased operations in 1958. The Paccar group holds 18% of the truck market in the USA.

Volvo Trucks and Mack Trucks, which are integrated into the Volvo Trucks group, together represent 10% of the market.

It should be noted that the truck market in the USA is divided into two categories: Middle Trucks (medium range) and Heavy Trucks (high range). The brands most involved in the high range are Freightliner, International, Peterbilt, Kenworth, Volvo, Mack and Western Star. Ford, GM and Chrysler are present only in the upper range pickup category. The other brands (such as Isuzu) are mainly present in the category of Middle Trucks.

Global pick-up production remains stable at 4 million units per year

The pick-ups which represent 4 million units per year in the world are divided into two main categories: those of the medium range (like the Ford Ranger) and those of the high range (like the Ford F-Series).

Pick-ups in the high range are made up of less than ten models and represent in volume almost 2 million units per year. They are primarily produced and sold in the United States. The American carmakers GM (Chevrolet, GMC), Ford and Chrysler (Ram) practically monopolize this category in which the Japanese Toyota and Nissan remain very marginal. They are facing a relatively less popularity for three years. Carmakers will have to switch from combustion engines to electric motors, which will not be so simple, given what this market represents, essentially based on four models (Ford F Series, Chevrolet Silverado, Ram pick-up, GMC Sierra).

Mid-range pick-ups are made up of more models and represent 2 million units per year in volume. In addition to GM, Ford and Chrysler, it is the Japanese carmakers that monopolize most of the category (Toyota, Nissan Mitsubishi, Isuzu). These vehicles are sold all over the world and are produced in four main countries: Thailand, which remains the leader, followed by the United States, Argentina and South Africa. This is a category that has remained stable in terms of sales for five years. The electrification of this range has not yet started. Carmakers, mainly Japanese, are reluctant to switch combustion engines to electric motors, as they are not yet really pushed by the locals regulations.

Global light vehicle production could increase by 2.5% in 2023

Global light vehicle production (passenger cars + light utility vehicles) posted strong growth in the first four months of 2023: +9.9% compared to the same period of 2022. This significant growth rate is comparable to that of the global automotive market over the same period (+9.8%) which means that the restocking period is over since we produce as many vehicles as we have sold for four months.

Depending on growth in the global automotive market estimated at nearly 10% for the whole of 2023 and depending on the high level of production between June and December 2022 followed by a stabilization of the production in April 2023 compared to April 2022, it is reasonable to expect that global automotive production growth could slow down and become very weak between June 2023 and December 2023. 

Inovev estimates global automotive production growth at 2.5% for the whole of 2023. 

This distortion between the level of sales and production will therefore result in a new destocking of vehicles because the level of sales will be higher than the level of production. The year 2024 is therefore forecasted according to Inovev to undoubtedly carry out a significant restocking, as in 2022. Finally, it should be noted that production growth will be greater in 2023 in China and India than in the United States or Europe, which will further increase China's share in the global automotive production, which was 28% in 2019 and 32% in 2022.

Sales and production in Vietnam continue to climb

In Auto Analyze 2023-09, we gave an overview of the Vietnamese automobile market from 2010 to 2022. We said that this market was still at a low level (300,000 sales in 2022, for a population of nearly 100 million inhabitants) but constantly growing (50,000 sales in 2012, 200,000 sales in 2016, 250,000 sales in 2019).

Today, we provide an overview of automotive production in Vietnam. This is progressing at the same rate as the local automobile market. In 2022, the production volume amounts to 350,000 vehicles compared to 307,000 in 2021 and 258,000 in 2020, which is a figure slightly higher than that of the local market, which means that Vietnam exports a few tens of thousands of vehicles in neighbouring countries.

Japanese brands were the first to establish themselves in the country, followed by Korean brands. American carmakers Ford and GM were also present in Vietnam, but GM, which ceased distribution in 2018, sold its Hanoi factory to the only national carmaker: Vinfast. It was in this factory that the very first Vinfast vehicles were assembled before production was transferred to Haiphong, in a much larger factory. For now, the production of Vinfast is starting.

It should be noted that the share of auto parts produced in Vietnam represents only 20% of the country's entire automobile production, compared to 80% in Thailand or Indonesia. Most of the parts are imported, resulting to a high cost of production which is impacted on the vehicle price. However, this is not the case for the national carmaker Vinfast.

Chevrolet, the leading brand of the GM group, is less and less popular

The GM group is currently regrouping four brands: Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC. The Oldsmobile, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn brands were ended in the 2000s, while the European brands Opel and Vauxhall were sold in 2017 the French group PSA (Stellantis today). The Chevrolet brand represents the entry level of the GM group.

Chevrolet, the entry level brand of GMhas always been the leading brand of the group. Each year, it ranks among the top brands sold in the United States, in competition with Ford and Toyota. But its sales have steadily declined in volume since 2014.

Outside the United States, Chevrolet has lost much of its shine, even if the development of its production in China for a time screened the gravity of its situation internationally. In recent years, Chevrolet has ceased production of vehicles in South Africa, Australia, India, Russia and Thailand. Its production in South Korea has fallen by 60% since 2005, and even in North America and South America, its production has fallen by 40% since 2005. In total, Chevrolet's global production has fallen from 4.5 million vehicles in 2005 to 2.7 million in 2022, which represents a drop of 40%.

Chevrolet's strategy for the past five years has been to drop sedans from its U.S. line-up (while returning the Malibu to production in 2021) and try to establish itself in the all-electric car market. This attempt (still in progress) is not really successful given the positioning of the entry-level brand of the GM group and the reluctance of American customers to purchase this type of vehicle.

 
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