Are Japanese carmakers lagging behind with electric cars?
- 说明
- Are Japanese carmakers lagging behind with their electric cars? This is a question that can be asked if the global 100% electric vehicle (BEV) market grows to 6.8 million units by 2022, up from 4.5 million units in 2021 and 2.0 million units in 2020, and if Japanese electric-drive models today account for only a tiny fraction of BEV sales.
- In fact, only 40,000 Japanese electric vehicles were sold globally in 2021. In 2022, based on figures for the first nine months of the year, Japanese BEV sales will not exceed 50,000 units, which would represent less than 1% of total global sales.
- So it's safe to assume that Japanese carmakers have accumulated a significant BEV backlog compared to European, Chinese and even Korean carmakers, as Hyundai-Kia sold twice as many BEVs in 2021 as all Japanese carmakers combined. And in 2022, the Koreans will sell nearly 350,000 BEVs worldwide, up from 220,000 in 2021. For their part, European carmakers sold 1,000,000 BEVs worldwide in 2021 and 1,300,000 BEVs in 2022. U.S. carmakers sold 1,600,000 BEVs worldwide in 2021 and probably 2,100,000 units in 2022.
- Chinese carmakers sold 1,500,000 BEVs in 2021 and likely nearly 3,000,000 BEVs in 2022. Japanese carmakers are starting to take more interest in the BEV market after hesitant beginnings (Nissan Leaf, Mitsubishi I-Miev, Honda E, Mazda MX30). Toyota is reportedly preparing a dozen electric models and Honda has teamed up with GM Group to launch a full line of electric vehicles, with the Prologue being the first model.
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Geely continues to expand its global influence
- 说明
- China's Geely Group had sold 2,148,405 light vehicles (passenger+LUV) by 2021, up 2% from 2020, ranking twelfth in the world last year. Sales were distributed as follows: 831,551 of the Geely brand, 698,693 of the Volvo brand (33% of group sales), 259,703 of the Emgrand brand, 220,516 of the Lynk&Co brand, 107,530 of the Proton brand, 29,101 of the Geometry brand and 1,311 of the Lotus brand, with Polestar brand sales counted in Volvo's figures.
- The Geely Group, which was the first independent Chinese automaker in 2021, is now displaced in 2022 by electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle producer BYD, which is performing spectacularly this year, doubling its sales volume year-on-year.
- Geely nevertheless remains one of the leading Chinese carmakers and one of the most ambitious, thanks to its acquisition of Volvo and Polestar, but also thanks to a 49.9% stake in Proton, 51% in Lotus, 50% in Smart, 9.7% in Mercedes and now 7.5% in Aston-Martin (already 9.7% owned by Mercedes). Geely also owns a minority stake in Volvo Trucks. Geely also owns London Taxis International, which manufactures the TX4 cab. Finally, Geely vehicles will be manufactured at Renault's Korean site (formerly Renault Samsung) in 2024. In addition, the Lynk & Co brand is starting to be known in Europe, expect the new premium brand Zeekr. The Chinese carmaker is thus showing some momentum, which makes it optimistic about the future.
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The difficulties of Mercedes plan for electric mobility
- 说明
- The Mercedes Group has sold 99,301 electric vehicles (BEVs) and 175,522 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) through 2021, representing 11% of its global sales (4% BEVs and 7% PHEVs). Broken down by model, 29,875 EQAs, 17,950 EQCs, 8,869 EQSs, 3,407 EQVs and 312 EQEs were produced in Europe, plus 26,715 Smart EQ Fortwos, 8,957 Smart EQ Forfours, with the remainder (3,216 units) split between e-Vito and e-Sprinter.
- If a sales target of 100% electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles is set for 2035, as desired by the European Parliament, the Mercedes Group would have to succeed in selling 17.5% BEV+PHEV in 2022, 24% in 2023, 30.5% in 2024, 37.0% in 2025, 43.5% in 2026, 50.0% in 2027, etc., until 100% is reached in 2035, assuming linear growth. Based on the results of the first nine months of 2022, Mercedes Group will not reach the 300,000 BEV+PHEV sales in 2022 (200,000 sales in nine months), which would represent between 12% and 14% of the carmaker's global sales, far from the required 17.5%.
- Excluding the Chinese-made Smart 01, Mercedes only offers expensive luxury vehicles, which will not make its task of selling 100% electric vehicles by 2035 any easier, i.e., between 2 million and 2.5 million vehicles, depending on the size of the European market at that time. There is no way the EQA, EQB, EQC, EQE, EQS, and EQV can achieve big sales numbers. That's Mercedes' whole problem. In 2022, the Mercedes Group will occupy only 2% of the global BEV market (BMW and Stellantis are both at 3%).
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Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year from new Mercedes EQE SUV
- 说明
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Japanese models in the NAFTA zone 2022-2026
- 说明
- Toyota, the largest Japanese automaker, launched the Crown sedan and the somewhat sportier GR Corolla on the North American market in 2022. In 2023, the Grand Highlander SUV is to be launched. In 2024, an all-electric (BEV) crossover, the name of which has not yet been announced, is to be launched, and in 2025, a sedan that is also all-electric.
- Lexus, Toyota's premium brand, aims to launch the RZ electric SUV in North America in 2023. The electric TX crossover is scheduled to appear there the following year. In addition, two unspecified BEVs have been announced for 2025 and 2026. Nissan introduced the Ariya electric SUV to the North American market in 2022. Otherwise, a yet-unknown BEV crossover and another BEV sedan were announced for 2025, the latter also still unknown.
- Nissan's premium Infiniti brand has announced two yet-unknown BEV models for the North American market in 2025, a sedan and a crossover. Two unknown crossover models have also been announced for 2026, one with an internal combustion engine and one with an all-electric drive.
- Honda wants to offer a hybrid version of the Civic in North America in 2023. In 2024, the carmaker wants to launch an electric SUV there, the Prologue, and in 2025, an SUV with an internal combustion engine and hybrid drive is to be available there, the Pilot XL.
- Acura, Honda's premium brand, will introduce the Integra Type S with an internal combustion engine and hybrid drive to the North American market in 2022. A crossover with an internal combustion engine, the name of which has not yet been announced, has been announced for 2024, and the BEV version of the NSX sports car is to be launched in 2026.
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