Tesla's cyclical sales in Europe
In 2019, Tesla produced 364,236 battery electric cars (BEVs), of which 49% destined for the United States (for 178,950 sales), 31% for Europe (for 111,714 sales) and 10% to China ( 35,531 units). These three markets accounted for 90% of Tesla's sales last year.

In the first seven months of 2020, Tesla produced 215,893 BEVs, of which 45% destined for the United States (97,500 units), 19% destined for China (40,698 units) and 18% destined for Europe (38,285 units). The share of the three big markets now represents only 82% of Tesla's sales. This may mean Tesla is attacking new markets or restocking.

But while the overall production volume of the Tesla brand evolves in a fairly standard way for an automobile carmaker (with seasonality), and while sales in the United States follow this same trend, sales in Europe present a atypical evolution similar to a sinusoidal movement, meaning with a strong diffusion that takes place every three months (March 2019, June 2019, September 2019, December 2019, March 2020 and June 2020) followed by a very weak registrations over the next two months.

This cyclical sales phenomenon can be explained by Tesla's own production strategy in its American plant (Freemont), which consists of first producing vehicles intended for export in the first half of each quarter and then vehicles intended for the local American market. This policy called "Wave" aims to limit vehicle stocks on the production site. Taking into account the logistical time required to get vehicles to destination markets, we therefore find this cyclical phenomenon in registrations. The Chinese market is less impacted by this cycle, because Tesla has started to produce the Model 3 there in April 2020.

This strategy will probably continue in Europe until 2023, provisional year for the opening of the future Tesla plant in Germany, where the Models 3 and Y will be produced. Cyclical sales should therefore continue for the Model S and X but their low volumes does not affect the European (or Chinese) market.


    
 

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Jinbei Shinerai is Renault Group's best-selling model in China
The Chinese brands Jinbei and Huasong were taken over by the Renault group (Renault, Dacia, Samsung, Alpine, Lada) in 2018. Huasong is a brand specialised in vans and light utility vehicles, created in 2015 by the Chinese car carmaker Brilliance which is BMW partner in passenger cars. Following the creation on January 1, 2018 by Brilliance and Renault of the Renault-Brilliance-Jinbei Automotive Company joint venture, the Huasong brand has since been consolidated, like its sister brand Jinbei, by the Renault Group. Surprisingly, Jinbei's vehicles keep their grille reminiscent of BMW brand cars, even after Renault's arrival.

The two brands Jinbei and Huasong produced 94,295 vehicles in 2019, which is a small quantity considering the volume produced by all Chinese carmakers, but large enough for the flagship model called JinbeiShinerai X30 to become the best selling model of the Renault group in China: 70,973 units in 2019, or 0.33% of the Chinese market.

In 2019, Renault branded vehicles only represented 16,251 units in China, including 7,183 Koléos, 4,340 Kadjar, 3,169 K-ZE and 1,559 Captur. In 2020, the situation is even better for the Shinerai, as Renault has ceased the production of its SUVs in China. The Shinerai sold 34,319 units in the first seven months of 2020, representing a small increase of 1.5% from the same period of the previous year. Renault branded models represented only 1,380 sales over the same period, sales made only from stocks. This volume breaks down as follows: 578 Koléos, 481 Captur, 224 Kadjar and 97 K-ZE.


    
 

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Inovev forecasts 80,000 units per year of the new Mercedes S-Class
Since 1965, generations of Mercedes S-Class have followed one to another on the average of every seven years. The previous generation started in 2013 and the new has just been unveiled in September 2020 for a launch onto the market expected in January 2021.

The new S-Class sedan (W223) will have to keep this series at the forefront in terms of volume (ahead of the BMW Series 7 and Audi A8), a position acquired since the 1960s.

The new S-Class is 5 cm longer than the old one (5.18 m for the normal version and 5.29 m for the long wheelbase version). The even longer Maybach version will be only equipped with the 6-liter V12 engine, the other versions will feature six-cylinder 3.0-liter petrol and diesel, and a 4-liter V8 petrol, already seen on the current generation.

Based on the MRA platform, the new S-Class will, as today, be produced at the Sindelfingen plant, at a rate of 80,000 units per year, but the coupe and convertible versions will not be renewed, the carmaker judging the potential sales becoming too low for this type of models. On the other hand, a plug-in hybrid version called the S580e will be launched next year (based on the 3-liter petrol). The 3.0-liter diesel will remain available until the next generation scheduled for 2027 but it is expected to be discontinued thereafter. Finally, the 100% electric EQS version should be launched in 2021.


    
 

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Inovev forecasts 25,000 units per year of the new Skoda Enyaq
Skoda (Czech subsidiary of the Volkswagen group) has unveiled its first 100% electric SUV, the Enyaq, which with a length of 4.65 m is part of the D-segment, like the Skoda Kodiaq (4.70 m), the Seat Tarraco (4.74m) or the VW TiguanAllspace (4.80m).

This is the second 100% electric model of the Skoda brand, after the small Citigo sedan (A-segment) and the second official model of the new 100% electric family of the Volkswagen group based on the MEB platform which has already unveiled its ID3 (C-segment sedan) but not yet its ID4 (D-segment SUV).

The price of the Enyaq is set at 40,800 euros (excluding subsidies and/or taxes reduction) for the entry level version (400 km of autonomy) and 47,300 euros for the highest level version (500 km of autonomy), i.e. a very low price difference compared to a VW ID3 (38,000 euros). An even cheaper version (340 km of autonomy) will be launched next year, therefore at the price of a VW ID3.

Skoda is marketing models with prices lower than Volkswagen's, explaining why this price distortion of the Enyaq compared to ID3 and future ID4.

Contrary to what Volkswagen had announced, the Enyaq will be produced at the Czech plant of Mlada Boleslav and not at the Zwickau or Emden plant. This change is certainly due to the postponement of the construction of the Volkswagen plant in Turkey which should have allowed capacities in Emden (with the transfer of Passats from Emden to Turkey). Given the attractive price of the Enyaq, Inovev expects 25,000 sales per year of this 100% electric model.


    
 

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Among the 10 best-selling cars in Spain, 4 are made in Spain
Since 1965, generations of Mercedes S-Class have followed one to another on the average of every seven years. The previous generation started in 2013 and the new has just been unveiled in September 2020 for a launch onto the market expected in January 2021.

The new S-Class sedan (W223) will have to keep this series at the forefront in terms of volume (ahead of the BMW Series 7 and Audi A8), a position acquired since the 1960s.

The new S-Class is 5 cm longer than the old one (5.18 m for the normal version and 5.29 m for the long wheelbase version). The even longer Maybach version will be only equipped with the 6-liter V12 engine, the other versions will feature six-cylinder 3.0-liter petrol and diesel, and a 4-liter V8 petrol, already seen on the current generation.

Based on the MRA platform, the new S-Class will, as today, be produced at the Sindelfingen plant, at a rate of 80,000 units per year, but the coupe and convertible versions will not be renewed, the carmaker judging the potential sales becoming too low for this type of models. On the other hand, a plug-in hybrid version called the S580e will be launched next year (based on the 3-liter petrol). The 3.0-liter diesel will remain available until the next generation scheduled for 2027 but it is expected to be discontinued thereafter. Finally, the 100% electric EQS version should be launched in 2021.


    
 

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

 
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