Why the Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021?
The Tesla Model 3 was the best-selling model in Europe in September 2021 (22,246 sales), well ahead of the Renault Clio (17,034 units), Dacia Sandero (16,641 units) and Volkswagen Golf (16,610 units). But this information is irrelevant if we only look at Model 3 sales in September. Why? The explanation is simple: Tesla's sales in Europe show an atypical evolution similar to a sinusoidal movement, that is to say with a strong diffusion which takes place every three months followed by a very weak diffusion every two months.

This cyclical sales phenomenon is explained by Tesla's own production policy at its American factory in Fremont, which consists of first producing vehicles intended for export in the first half of each quarter and then vehicles intended for the American market. This strategy named "Wave" aims to limit the stocks of vehicles on the US production plant. Taking into account the logistical time required to transport vehicles to destination markets, we therefore find this cyclical phenomenon in registrations. The Chinese market is little affected by this cycle, because Tesla has been producing the Model 3 there since April 2020.

This strategy will probably continue in Europe until 2022, when the future German Tesla plant is supposed to be opened, and where the Model 3 and Model Y will be produced. Cyclical sales should therefore continue for a few more months, while the German production is ramping up. So it will not be a surprise to see strong sales declines in October and November, and after that again a strong increase in December 2021.

Anyway, the increase in sales of Model 3 in Europe is significant because the volume of deliveries is in strong evolution compared to 2020 and 2019. While in 2019, these deliveries had reached 80,000 units and 75,000 in 2020 (volume in slight decrease due to the Covid-19 crisis), they could reach between 130,000 and 135,000 units in 2021, which would represent an increase of 80% compared to 2020 and of 70% compared to 2019.

This volume of 130,000 to 135,000 Model 3 sold in Europe in 2021 will represent 25% of the global production of this model, estimated at 520,000 units, its two other major markets being the United States and China.

It is interesting to note that Model 3 sales continue to increase (in Europe and elsewhere) as the Tesla Model Y started to be marketed several months ago. In Europe, the Tesla Model Y is already 14th in September 2021 (11,176 sales) with a volume representing half of the Model 3 sales.


    
 

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Tesla is gradually reaching one million sales per year
The production volumes of the Californian carmaker Tesla are in line with its objectives, as they could exceed 850,000 units over the whole 2021 year, compared to 510,000 in 2020 and 365,000 in 2019. At this rate, they could reach one million units by 2022, making Tesla one of the world's fifteen largest carmakers for the first time in its history.

This expected 67% increase in Tesla's global production in 2021 is largely due to the ramp-up of the carmaker Chinese plant in Shanghai. This plant will produce 400,000 vehicles in 2021 (Model 3 and Model Y), i.e. nearly half of Tesla's worldwide production, while the American plant located in Fremont could produce up to 450,000 vehicles this year (Model 3 and Model Y, but also Model S and Model X), a figure close to the maximum capacity of the plant.

It is obvious that if Tesla wants to meet the growing demand for its models, it needs a third factory, the one expected in Germany, near Berlin. Given that Tesla's sales in Europe will reach between 130,000 to 135,000 units in 2021, the Berlin plant could be calibrated for 150,000 units per year and even 300,000 per year if the carmaker confirms the expansion of its range with the Model 2 sedan, a model comparable in dimensions to a Volkswagen ID3.

Currently, Tesla's European market is supplied mainly by the American plant in Fremont, which could clear 100,000 units per year (transferred to Berlin) to support the production of the battery electric pick-up already unveiled but not yet industrialized. The market for this pickup will in fact be mainly located in the United States. The Tesla plant in Shanghai mainly supplies the Chinese market (295,000 sales in the first nine months of 2021).


    
 

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The future Mazda 2 will take over the body of the Toyota Yaris
The satellite brands of the Toyota group, namely Suzuki, Mazda and Subaru, in which Toyota holds minority stakes, increasingly take over Toyota's bodies and engines, which allows substantial savings in design and industrialization, but dilutes their brand image a little more.

The Suzuki Swace and Across launched last year are rebadged Toyota Corollas and RAV4s, while the Subaru BRZ shares its body with the Toyota GT86. Mazda is adopting the same type of policy as its next Mazda 2 (B-segment sedan) will be just a rebranded Toyota Yaris, with the same powertrains, gasoline and hybrid as the original model.

One of the major advantages of taking over Toyota's engines is the availability of plug-in or non-plug-in hybrid engines, a type of engine that neither Suzuki, Subaru nor Mazda had.

This type of engine, which is increasingly in demand, also enables carmakers to meet stringent CO2 emissions standards and avoid heavy fines. It is obvious that Suzuki, Subaru and Mazda did not adapt to these constraints early enough. As for Fiat, which was experiencing the same kind of problem, these three Japanese carmakers had to find a partner in order to be able to pass environmental standards. But the policy of rebadging is a double-edged sword, as this policy often ends in the elimination of brands that rebrand models of other brands. The future Mazda 2, which will succeed a model in strong decline since 2010, will be officially presented in March 2022.


    
 

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France set an objective of 2 million electric and hybrid vehicles produced by 2030
The French government has announced a production target for carmakers established in the country. The government wishes carmakers produce 2 million battery electric (BEV) and hybrids (HEV and PHEV) vehicles in France in 2030, which represents almost all of the production capacity currently installed in the country for thermal, electric and hybrids vehiclesand the entire production in France, according to Inovev.

In 2019, France produced 2,181,294 light vehicles (PCs + LUVs), 88% of which were equipped with purely thermal engines (petrol or diesel). In 2020, production plunged to 1,291,095 units, due to the coronavirus crisis and the relocations of Renault Clio, Peugeot 208 and Peugeot 2008 then produced in France, in part or in full. Of this total, 76% of vehicles produced in France were fitted with a thermal engine. In 2021, Inovev forecasts a production of 1,584,302 light vehicles in France, of which 75% are equipped with thermal engines.

There has therefore a decline in thermal engine vehicles since 2019, but these still represent 75% of the production in France. In a period of nine years (between 2022 and 2030), this figure would have to gradually drop from 75% to 0%, meaning a 8% decrease each year, while between 2020 and 2021, he lost only 1%. It would take an unprecedented acceleration in thermal reduction over the next few years.

Renault has confirmed a production capacity of 400,000 electric cars at Douai, Toyota a production capacity of 300,000 hybrid cars at Onnaing. A capacity of 1,300,000 additional electric and hybrids vehicles remains to be installed between PSA, Renault and Toyota over the next 9 years.


    
 

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MG launches a third model in Europe: the SUV Marvel R
SAIC, the largest Chinese carmaker (including vehicles assembled in joint ventures), which produces hundreds of thousands of vehicles each year in joint ventures with Volkswagen and General Motors groups, had bought the Rover brand in 2005 (renamed Roewe) and in 2006 the MG brand, both former brands of the British Leyland conglomerate which was the first British carmaker in the 70s before sinking in the 80s and going bankrupt in 2005.

The Roewe and MG brands have therefore become Chinese brands of the SAIC group, just like Maxus, which arrived later, in 2011. Maxus was also from the British Leyland group, this brand being named LDV.

MG was the first brand of the SAIC group to enter the European market. After the ZS, a fully electric B-segment SUV, and the HS (or EHS), a PHEV C-segment SUV, MG is launching its third model in Europe, the Marvel R. It is a D-segment SUV 100% electric priced from 40,000 euros to 49,000 euros, making it the cheapest electric SUV in this segment. The model has dimensions comparable to those of a Peugeot 5008 (4.67 m in length). The model is available in two engines, one with 180 hp two-wheel drive allowing a range of 370 km and the other with 288 hp four-wheel drive allowing a range of 400 km (with a battery capacity of 70 kWh).

Launched in 2018, under the Roewe Marvel RX brand, it has been marketed on the European market since early October 2021. Produced in China, in Pukou (Jiangsu province), it has so far not been very successful in China, as less than 8,000 units should be produced in 2021. We cannot therefore expect large volumes in Europe either, for a brand that is still very little known. Inovev forecasts less than 5,000 units for this model in Europe in 2022.


    
 

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