BEV sales in the US didn’t exceed 4% of the market in 2021
The two graphs below represent the monthly sales volume of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the US and Chinese markets from January 2018 to October 2021. The left graph represents the sales volume and the right graph represents the market share of BEV in the country's overall market.

Compared to BEV sales in China, BEV sales in USA are very low even compared to BEV sales in Europe. In 2021, we still do not reach the 50,000 monthly sales of BEV in the USA, or 363,500 units over the first 10 months of 2021, against 260,000 units over the whole of 2020 and 238,000 units over the 2019 full year. In China, BEV sales reached 1,958,500 units over 10 months 2021 and 900,000 units in Europe.

Compared to PHEV sales in China, PHEV sales are also very low in USA, even lower compared to PHEV sales in Europe. In 2021, we still do not reach the 20,000 monthly sales of PHEV in the US market, i.e. 130,000 units over the first 10 months of 2021, against 65,000 units over the whole 2020 year and 83,000 units over the full 2019 year. In China, PHEV sales reached 431,000 units over 10 months 2021 and 843,000 units in Europe.

Compared to HEV sales in China, HEV sales are much higher this time, even compared to HEV sales in Europe. In 2021, we highly exceed the 60,000 monthly sales of HEV in the USA, or 680,000 units over the first 10 months of 2021, against 461,000 units over the full 2020 year and 402,000 units over the whole of 2019 year. In China, sales of HEVs reached only 383,000 units over 10 months 2021 and 518,000 units in Europe.


    
 

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Inovev forecasts 75,000 units per year of the new Ford Transit Connect
Ford has just unveiled the new generation of its Transit Connect van (segment N1-1) which is a rebadged version of the recent Volkswagen Caddy, following agreements between the two carmakers in the production of light utility vehicles.

The new Transit Connect will therefore be assembled at the Poznan plant in Poland, alongside the Volkswagen Caddy, from the start of 2022, and no longer at the Ford plant in Valencia in Spain.

Initially, the new Transit Connect was supposed to be made in the United States, but Ford changed its strategy after its agreements with Volkswagen. Following the scheduled end of the Mondeo and Galaxy / S-Max, the Valencia plant will only assemble one model, the Kuga SUV.

The new Transit Connect uses the Volkswagen body (with its two wheelbases) and the Volkswagen 1.5 petrol engine with 114 hp and 2.0 diesel with 102 hp and 122 hp fitted to the Caddy. No battery electric is planned at this time.

The career of the Ford Transit Connect has evolved up and down since its launch in 2003, with sales drops in 2009 (75,000 units) and in 2013 (50,000 units), while peak of production was reached in 2011 (130,000 units). Since 2016, the Transit Connect, undoubtedly competing with the Transit Courier launched in 2014, has been declining steadily, dropping from 100,000 units in 2016 to 75,000 in 2018, 70,000 in 2020 and 55,000 in 2021. The model launched in 2003 and updated in 2013 is therefore replaced at the right time, with the advantage of inexpensive investments. Inovev forecasts75,000 units per year of the new Ford Transit Connect.


    
 

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The European automobile production is decreasing by nearly 25% compared to 2019

The European automobile production (including Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) reached a volume of 12,394,016 units (passenger cars – PC and light utility vehicles - LUV) in the first 9 months of 2021. This result represents an increase of 7.3% compared to the first 9 months of 2020, but a decrease of 24.7% compared to the first 9 months of 2019. The production results were very bad in the third quarter of 2021, especially compared to the third quarter of 2020 and even more compared to the third quarter of 2019.


According to carmakers, this poor performance can be explained by an insufficient supply of semiconductors, which despite everything remains a cyclical event. There is also a structural cause, namely an overall slowdown in demand for new vehicles.


By country, Germany remains the largest producing country in Europe (2,514,014 PC + LUV) but the gap is narrowing with Spain (1,792,256 PC + LUV), France (1,066,048 PC + LUV) and the Czech Republic (868 351 PC + LUV). Note that Russia produced 1,023,289 PC + LUV, ie a little less than France, and Turkey 773,851 PC + LUV, or a little more than Great Britain (707,697 PC + LUV).


    
 

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Volkswagen plans to build new assembly plant in Wolfsburg
The German carmaker Volkswagen plans to build a new assembly plant in Wolfsburg, near the brand's historic factory, which will be dedicated to the production of all-electric vehicles. Eventually, the construction of an additional factory was preferred to the extension of the historic Wolfsburg factory which, according to the management of the carmaker, would have been more expensive.

This plant construction will not only be the first by a major carmaker in the Western side of Europe in twenty years, but it will also be an obvious response to the construction of the Tesla factory in Germany, near Berlin, which is expected to start in 2022. The Volkswagen plant to be built in Wolfsburg will house battery electric Trinity sedan from 2026 at the announced rate of 150,000 units per year by 2030. This production capacity is equivalent to that announced by Tesla for its Berlin plant, at least during its first phase.

The carmaker had already communicated last summer on the fact that it planned to produce 700,000 electric vehicles in Germany in 2030, including 200,000 units at the Zwickau site, 200,000 units at the Emden site, 150,000 units at the Wolfsburg site, 100,000 units at the Hanover site and 50,000 units at the Dresden site.

The announcement of the construction of a new plant in Wolfsburg therefore only confirms the production of 150,000 electric cars in Wolfsburg in 2030.


    
 

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The American automobile production is decreasing by 22% compared to 2019
The American automobile production (North and South America) reached a volume of 11,842,762 units (PC + LUV) over the first 9 months of 2021. This figure represents an increase of 7.1% compared to the first 9 month of 2020, but a decrease of 22% compared to the first 9 months of 2019. As for Europe, the production figures were very bad for the third quarter of 2021, down sharply compared to the third quarter of 2020 and more compared to the third quarter of 2019. Here again, carmakers speak of semiconductors shortage to explain this poor performance, but it is also more likely that the demand for new vehicles is no longer as dynamic as before the Covid crisis.

Of this total, the NAFTA region (USA-Mexico-Canada) produced 10,040,623 units (or nearly 85% of the region production), including 6,921,748 for the USA, 2,301,397 for Mexico and 817,478 for Canada. This NAFTA region grew 4.5% in the first 9 months of 2021 compared to the first 9 months of 2020, but remains down 21.2% compared to the first 9 months of 2019.

Interestingly, the NAFTA region produced as many vehicles as the European Union in the first 9 months of 2021 (10,040,623 units for the NAFTA region and 10,084,262 for the EU).

South America, which represents only 1,802,139 units out of the total of the two Americas, or 15% of this total, has progressed much more than the NAFTA region since Brazil has increased by 15% on the first 9 of 2021 and Argentina by 78% but these two countries had fallen more in 2020, due to greater difficulties linked to the coronavirus crisis.



    
 

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