Review of automobile production in 2021 in Iran
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Review of automobile production in 2021 in Iran
- Iran's automobile production volume evolves according to the harshness of the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries (mainly the USA) on Iran. Automobile production thus suffers the repercussions of the economic sanctions, even if the population is the most affected by these sanctions.
- While automobile production peaked at 1.6 million vehicles in 2010 and 2011, it collapsed to 1.0 million units in 2012 and 0.65 million in 2013. It rose to 1.0 million in 2014 then 1.45 million in 2017 and collapsed again when the new Trump administration was installed in the United States and increased the harshness of sanctions vis-à-vis Iran. Iranian car production then fell to 0.75 million units in 2019 and 0.7 million in 2020. After Trump's departure, Iranian car production rose to 0.95 million units in 2021 (sanctions imposed to Iran lightened?). At the current rate, it will exceed 1.1 million units in 2022.
- The Iranian manufacturers Iran Khodro and SAIPA represent 59% of the country's automobile production in 2021, to which must be added the 31% represented by the production of Peugeot models made by Iran Khodro which are not counted at Stellantis.
- Chinese manufacturers represent only 10% of Iranian production.
- Currently, Iran Khodro (IKCO) manufactures 4 models and SAIPA 5 models whose photos are on the following page. These nine models represent nearly 60% of the Iranian market in 2021.
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The best-selling SUVs in Europe in 2021
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The best-selling SUVs in Europe in 2021
- SUVs accounted for 44.7% of passenger car registrations in Europe (29 countries) in 2021, setting a new market share record (it was 40.1% in 2020). SUVs continue to bite into the sedan market and have ended up wiping out the minivan market which resembles them in many ways (Citroën has just ceased production of its C4 Space Tourer, while the Renault Scénic and Volkswagen Touran will soon be deleted).
- The ten best-selling SUVs in Europe in 2021 were the Peugeot 2008 (B segment) with 188,000 sales (+25.5%), Volkswagen T-Roc (C segment) with 173,000 sales (+16.7%) , Renault Captur (segment B) with 151,000 sales (-10.3%), Volkswagen Tiguan (segment C) with 150,000 sales (-7.3%), Peugeot 3008 (segment C) with 136,000 sales (+13 .2%), Hyundai Tucson (segment C) with 131,000 sales (+68.5%), Ford Puma (segment B) with 124,000 sales (+11.5%), Volkswagen T-Cross (segment B) with 118,000 sales (+10.0%), Dacia Duster (C segment) with 117,000 sales (+4.9%) and Volvo XC40 (C segment) with 115,000 sales (+12.0%).
- We observe that B and C segment SUVs are the most in demand, with D segment SUVs only coming in 16th and 20th position for the best-selling of them (Toyota RAV4 and BMW X3). Of all SUVs sold in Europe in 2021, 45% were C-segment, 35% were B-segment, 14% were D-segment, 5% were E-segment and 1% were F-segment.
- By nationality, German brand SUVs are the most sold (37% of the total), ahead of French brand SUVs (15%), Japanese brand SUVs (14%) and Korean brand SUVs (11%).
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Volkswagen plant in Emden goes electric
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Volkswagen plant in Emden goes electric
- The German plant in Emden has been manufacturing the different generations of the Volkswagen Passat for several decades. But with the forced march of electrification by European car manufacturers, the fate of the German manufacturer's D-segment sedan is sealed, because the Passat, the current generation of which dates from 2014, will be replaced in 2023 by the future Volkswagen ID7 which will be the first 100% electric family sedan of the brand.
- This new model will use the MEB platform of the Volkswagen ID3, ID4, ID5 and ID6 on an extended wheelbase. As a result, the Emden factory is converting to electric because the Passat has never been offered in a 100% electric version. And its production capacities have been announced by the manufacturer at 160,000 electric vehicles per year, which represents half of the plant's current capacities in thermal mode.
- We could deduce that the market for electric cars will represent – given their high price – half of the market for thermal cars, which is in line with Inovev's low scenario (fall in the market as a result of high prices).
- The Emden plant has greatly reduced its activity over the past fifteen years, due to demand for the Passat which has continued to decline, especially since 2015, when the model still represented 300,000 sales per year. against only 150,000 in 2021. In 2006 and 2007, it was 400,000 sales per year.
- The future Volkswagen ID7 should be available – like the Passat – in sedan and station wagon.
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State of car production in Britain after Brexit
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State of car production in Britain after Brexit
- British car production was undeniably negatively impacted after the Brexit vote, i.e. Britain's exit from the European Union. While UK car production volume grew between 2009 and 2016, rising from 1.08 million vehicles in 2009 to 1.80 million units in 2016 (representing an increase of around 67%, allowing it to return pre-crisis level without however recovering the lost volumes), this production volume experienced a first drop in 2017 (just after the Brexit vote) which worsened in the following years, the production volume having fallen to 1 .38 million units in 2019 (representing a 24% drop from 2016) well ahead of the spring 2020 health crisis. Britain's car production volume continued to decline in 2020 and 2021, falling to less than a million units in 2021, which hadn't happened since... 1953.
- Another phenomenon linked to Great Britain's departure from the European Union: most of the manufacturers established there have asked that the British State help them to offset the increase in costs that Brexit could represent. Some even threatened to leave the country. Honda closed its Swindon plant, officially for reasons unrelated to Brexit, Toyota concentrated on the production of a single model (Corolla), Stellantis decided to keep its Ellesmere Port site in extremis to produce cars electric and Jaguar has indicated that it will close its Castle Bromwich site in 2024, which produces sedans, coupes and convertibles. Jaguar SUVs will continue to be produced at Land Rover's Solihull site. In 2021, three brands represent 61% of British production, divided equally: Nissan, Land Rover and Mini. With the departure of Honda and the expected decline of Jaguar, Britain's production volume is unlikely to return to the million units a year for several years.
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European exports restart in 2021
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European exports restart in 2021
- The volume of European automotive exports is calculated here as follows: Inovev takes into account exports from the European Union by adding those from Great Britain – in order to remain on the same perimeter as during the years 2005-2015 – and to countries outside the European Union and Great Britain. Within this scope, the top five destination countries for European exports, which have represented the majority of European exports since 2005, are the United States, China, Turkey, Switzerland and Russia. Russia, however, has now fallen to the level of the countries that were hitherto in sixth to tenth place and is not ready to return to its former levels, because European manufacturers have decided to stop their exports to this country, following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. It remains to be seen whether this situation will be limited to the year 2022 or continue for the next few years.
- In 2021, these five countries represented a volume of 2 million cars exported, an increase of 12% compared to 2020, insufficient however to offset the successive drops of 8.7% in 2018, 9.0% in 2019 and 3 .6% in 2020. We are therefore still far from the figures for 2017 (2.25 million units) and even more so for 2013 (2.55 million units). In addition to Russia, which has seen the volume of European exports drop since 2008 due to a deliberate policy of the Russian government, the USA has also seen this volume drop between 2015 and 2020, although an improvement is noticeable in 2021. Turkey is in the same scenario, while Switzerland is in constant decline. On the other hand, China remains a buoyant market.
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