European and Chinese automotive market comparison (PC+LCV)
The Chinese car market took over the European car market in 2012. Since then, the volume gap between the two markets has continued to grow. In 2021, nearly 10 million registrations separate the two markets, and this gap should continue to grow over the next few years.


    
 

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China automotive market forecast (PC+LCV)
Inovev forecasts a scenario of continuous increase in car registrations in China from 2021 to 2030. From a volume of 22.2 million units recorded in 2020 and 23.5 million in 2021, the Chinese market should gradually reach 28 million units in 2030, an average growth of 0.5 million per year for nine years. Total BEV+PHEV sales should grow even more strongly to reach a volume of 12.5 million units compared to 1.3 million in 2020 and 3.3 million in 2021. The sales volume of BEV+PHEV should represent 45% of the Chinese car market in 2030.


    
 

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Inovev plans 50,000 units per year of the new Alfa-Romeo Tonale SUV
Alfa-Roméo, the Italian sports subsidiary of the Stellantis group, presented its new mid-range SUV (C segment) which is in the manufacturer's range below the Stelvio (D segment) which is based on the Alga Julia. In reality, the Tonale takes over from the Alfa Giulietta sedan which was in the C segment and which ceased production at the end of last year. With sedan sales declining and SUV sales rising, it's no surprise to see a manufacturer replacing a sedan with an SUV.

The Alfa-Roméo Tonale is a front-wheel drive that competes with premium C-segment SUVs like the Mercedes GLA, BMW X2, Audi Q3 Sportback, Volvo XC40 and Lexus UX.

The Tonale, which is 4.52 m long, shares its platform with the Jeep Compass, and does not adopt the new Stellantis platforms which will be inaugurated next year on the future Peugeot 3008 and 5008, because the model was already in the process of being finalization at the time when PSA and FCA were independent and competing groups. Compared to the Stelvio, the Tonale is 17 centimeters shorter but it is 12 centimeters longer than the Jeep Compass.

The Tonale will be equipped with a 1.5-liter petrol engine with 130 hp or 160 hp combined with a 48 V electrical system (HEV-Mild), a 1.6-liter diesel engine with 130 hp and a plug-in hybrid 275 hp based on the 1.3 liter and which provides four-wheel drive. The Tonale will be manufactured at the Italian site in Pomigliano at the rate of 50,000 units per year according to Inovev. This factory is the historic site of Alfa-Romeos in the C segment from the Alfasud (1971-1984) to the 147 (2000-2010).


    
 

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PC+LCV production in Europe by engine
European production reached 12.45 million PC+LCVs in 2021 compared to 12.97 million units in 2020, representing a 4% decrease year-on-year. Germany suffered particularly (-10%) but remains the leading producer country in Europe ahead of Spain and France. Poland (-10%), Slovenia (-16%) and Great Britain (-6%) also suffered, suffering from the shutdown of the Honda factory (Swindon) and Brexit, which increased prices. of its vehicles. By engine, internal combustion vehicles represented 10.60 million units produced in Europe in 2021 (85% of the total). BEVs accounted for 802,926 units (6.5%), PHEVs 766,849 units (6%) and HEVs 288,785 units (2.5%). These vehicles saw their production increase by 67% compared to 2020, while thermal vehicles saw their production fall by 10%. Inovev projects a steady increase in production of BEV+PHEV vehicles until at least 2030, with the volume expected to be 5 million units by then (Inovev's baseline scenario). The BEV+PHEV market should also represent 5 million units in Europe. It should be noted that in the reference scenario of Inovev, it is estimated that the number of exports of this type of vehicles to the outside should be comparable to that of imported vehicles of this type.

In 2021, European exports of BEV+PHEV represented around 100,000 units (including 65,000 in the USA, 25,000 in Korea, 10,000 in Japan) while Europe imported around 400,000 units (including 200,000 from USA, 100,000 from China, 100,000 from Korea) but imports are expected to decline sharply with the start-up of the Tesla factory in Berlin, which will replace the American factory.

Germany will remain the leading European producer of BEV +PHEV over the next few years. In Inovev's reference scenario, France will not produce 2 million electrified vehicles in 2030 (government target), but rather half.


 
    
 

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The global automotive market (sales) increased by 3.5% in 2021 (1/2)
According to Inovev's calculations, the global vehicle market (PC+LCV) increased by 3.5% in 2021, which is lower than the forecasts put forward by Inovev in 2020 (6.5% 2021/2020 see Auto -Analysis 2020-28). According to manufacturers, the semiconductor crisis is responsible for this situation (after a year 2020 marked by the coronavirus crisis), but it is possible that the sharp increase in the average price of cars will slow down purchases and encourage potential customers to keep their vehicle longer. The second half of 2021 was significantly worse than the first half of 2021 (see curve below). Compared to 2019, the global automotive market (PC+LCV) is down 9.5%.

By country, China has held up better than any other country. The Chinese market (PC+LCV) increased by 3.8% in 2021 compared to 2020 and by 2.0% compared to 2019. The Indian automotive market (PC+LCV) increased by 28% in 2021 compared to to 2020 but fell by 1.5% compared to 2019. The US market (PC+LCV) increased by 3.7% in 2021 compared to 2020 but fell by 11.6% compared to 2019. The Russian market (PC+LCV) increased by 4.3% in 2021 compared to 2020 and fell by 5.3% compared to 2019. The Japanese car market (PC+LCV) fell by 3.3% in 2021 compared to 2020 and by 14.4% compared to 2019. The Brazilian automotive market (PC+LCV) increased by 3.0% in 2021 compared to 2020 but fell by 24.0% compared to 2019. The Korean vehicle market (VP+LCV) fell by 8.8% in 2021 compared to 2020 and by 4.3% compared to 2019. Finally, the European market (29 countries) fell by 1.5% in 2021 compared to 2020 and 25.5% compared to 2019.

For 2022, Inovev expects a 5% increase in global sales.


    
 

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