Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
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Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, Europe (EU + UK + EFTA) imported nearly 3.1 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, they include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles imported in Europe remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, around 20% of new vehicles sold in Europe were imported.
- Unsurprisingly, and for several years, Turkey has been the leading vehicle supplier country for Europe as it represents around 20% of European imports. Follows China, which went from 10th rank among importers to 2nd in two years (2021 and 2022). With China, South Korea and Japan, Asia remains the leading region supplier of vehicles imported into Europe (44% of imports).
- What are our forecasts for import growth in Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast constant growth in imports which could reach a volume of 3.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 3.3 million in 2024. Imports could therefore increase by +7% between 2022 and 2024.
- This growth scenario is mainly explained by the expected increase in imports of vehicles produced in China by Chinese brands, the vast majority of which being battery electric vehicles (BEV). This increase in imports from China is linked to the expected growth of the BEV market in Europe, as according to our scenario, around 40% of new light vehicles sold in Europe will be BEVs in 2030. This scenario also takes into account a policy of attractive price-product mix from Chinese carmakers (offering of affordable vehicles in B or even A segments) and a proposal from European carmakers always seeking added value rather than volume. However, after 2030, we cannot exclude a drop in imports, which will not necessarily be due to a policy of protection of European industry by the EU (which has more difficulty implementing it than in the USA for example), but by the possibility that Chinese carmakers could set up assembly factories (CKD or SKD) in Europe. The case of BYD is an example with the strong possibility of an assembly plant in Hungary.
Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The world production volume of light vehicles (PC+LUV) increased by 9% over the 10-months of 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-month cumulative. For Europe, it increased by 10% over the 11-months 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-months.
- The PC+LUV production volume in Europe (EU + UK) will reach 14.36 million units in 2023, compared to 13 million in 2022, 13.1 million in 2021 and 13.4 million in 2020. Despite this improvement of production in 2023, due in particular to the delivery of orders not delivered in 2021 and 2022, the European production volume in 2023 remains very much lower than the recent years before Covid-19: 18.4 million units in 2017, 18 million in 2018 or 17.7 million in 2019.
- The production increase in 2023 does not predict an equivalent pace in 2024. Inovev is counting on a lower growth next year, with an order of magnitude between 1% and 5% due to orders completely delivered in 2023, a slow-growing automobile market and a low growth rate in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to the end or decrease of subsidies in some major European markets, high vehicle prices and the lack of affordable products in small segments.
- The arrival of Chinese carmakers in Europe – in terms of production – may only take place in 2025 or even 2026, and therefore the year 2024 will not benefit from an additional production contribution. On the contrary, factories will run slow, like the Ford factories in Germany or the Vauxhall factories in England. The success of Chinese cars imported from China may have a negative impact on automobile production in Europe.
Around thirty new models will be launched in Europe in 2024
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Around thirty new models will be launched in Europe in 2024
- Around thirty new passenger car models should be produced in Europe in 2024. SUVs will continue to capture the largest share of the European market with 20 new models planned for 2024.
- Among these 20 new SUVs:
§ 7 are from the B-segment B, 7 from the C-segment, 5 from the D-segment and 1 from E-segment.
§ 7 will be offered in both a thermal version and a battery electric version (BEV), 4 will be offered only in a BEV and 9 in a thermal version.
§ We note a particular effort from the Stellantis group which should launch 9 models. The Volkswagen group is expected to launch 7 models. The other 4 models will be launched by the Renault, Geely (Volvo) and Tata (Land Rover) groups.
- 9 new sedans produced in Europe will be launched in production in 2024. Among these 9 new sedans:
§ 4 are from the B-segment, 1 from the C-segment, 2 from the D-segment and 2 from the E-segment.
§ 2 will be marketed in both a thermal version and a battery electric version (BEV), 3 will be only in a BEV version and 4 in a thermal version.
§ The Stellantis group is expected to launch 2 new sedans, the Volkswagen group 3 and 4 will be launched by other groups (Renault, Nissan, Hyundai-Kia and Geely).
Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The registrations volume in Europe (scope of the left graph below) of passenger cars (PCs) will probably reach 12.9 million units over the whole of 2023, representing an increase of 14% compared to 2022 (11.3 million units).
- This increase reflects a post-covid catch-up. But this catch-up remains very modest: 1.6 million additional vehicles sold in 2023 compared to 2022. However, taking the 2019 market as a reference (16 million vehicles), that is an additional 15 million vehicles should have been sold between 2021 et 2023 and not 1.6 million. The question is: will a higher catch-up take place in 2024 and 2025? The debate is open.
- What is certain is that the catch-up will not be massive. The “Covid” situation, which could have only been cyclical, was the basis of a structural change of fewer vehicle purchases. This trend has been amplified by the significant increase of the vehicles prices, whether thermal or electric. One question is: will the price of vehicles decrease, making it possible to reach a new target of customers currently discouraged by the necessary purchasing budget (and this budget risks further increasing through the reduction in subsidies). This could happen in 2 ways:
§ The launch onto the European market by European carmakers of smaller and more affordable vehicles.
§ The rise of Chinese imports.
- But the effects of such actions will only be weak in 2024, and could increase in the following years. We therefore anticipate growth in 2024 compared to 2023 of 1 to 5%.
The average engine displacement in Europe has lost 230 cm3 since 2005
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The average engine displacement in Europe has lost 230 cm3 since 2005
Inovev has finalised a comprehensive study on the features of vehicles produced and sold in Europe (masses, dimensions and cylinder capacities).
For more information, please click here. Elements of this study are presented here in this Auto Analysis.
- As analysed in the “Masses-Dimensions-CC” study, the average weight of vehicles remained stable from 2011 to 2019, despite a sharp increase in SUVs and the almost systematic increase in the weight of a model during its renewal. This stabilization can be explained by several factors:
§ A change of mix: owners of D segment sedan renewing their vehicles certainly with SUVs, but from a lower segment, the C segment.
§ But also the significant efforts of carmakers to reduce the weight of their vehicles.
- Carmakers have been able to lower the cylinder capacity of vehicles (and therefore their weight) for equivalent power output (“downsizing”). See graph below relating to non-electrified passenger cars (excluding PHEV and FHEV), produced in Europe (EEZ, European Economic Zone including EU + UK + Morocco + Turkey).
- This optimization is not only due to the addition of a turbo on most engines (even the smallest) but also to other factors, notably gasoline direct injection and hybridization (addition of a electric motor).
- When we look at the petrol or diesel displacements, we see that it is the petrol engines which have benefited the most from downsizing, their average displacement which was 1,750 cm3 in 2005 in Europe has fallen to 1,500 cm3 in 2022, while the diesel engines fell from 1,890 cm3 in 2005 to 1,860 cm3 in 2022. If since 2014 the overall average has fallen sharply, it is also because the share of diesel engines in full thermal and hybrid engines has decreased considerably between 2005 and 2022. It decreased from 50% in 2005 to 30% in 2022, while the share of gasoline engines increased from 50% in 2005 to 58% in 2022. As for the share of hybrid engines (FHEV+PHEV), it went from 0% in 2005 to 12% in 2022.
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