Stellantis threatens to close its two UK assembly plants
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Stellantis threatens to close its two UK assembly plants
- The Stellantis group announced last year that it would produce battery electric vehicles at the Ellesmere Port site (United Kingdom) which was to cease production of the Opel Astra, transferred to Russelsheim in Germany, at the same time than the one produced in Gliwice in Poland.
- Production of the Opel Astra stopped in April 2022 at the Ellesmere Port site, but production of BEVs at this plant has not yet started. In fact, the Citroën Berlingo, Opel Combo, Peugeot Partner, Toyota Proace City and Fiat Doblo with electric engines (these are all light utility vehicles based on the same body with a few aesthetic details allowing each brand to be identified) do not have still started at the Ellesmere Port site. In 2023, these vehicles will therefore still be produced as before at the Spanish plant of Vigo.
- Stellantis Group said this month that new Brexit trade rules on the origin of parts to be applied in 2024 no longer allow Stellantis to produce battery electric vehicles at the Ellesmere Port plant. This new trading rule provides that 45% of the value of a battery electric vehicle must come from Great Britain, in order to avoid additional customs duties.
- As a result, the Stellantis group denounces the unprofitability of this production: "If the cost of producing electric vehicles in the United Kingdom becomes uncompetitive, operations will be closed". It is therefore open to wonder about the future of the Ellesmere Port plant, and by extension of Luton which produces the Opel Vivaro whose production could be easily transferred to the French site of Valenciennes.
Inovev forecasts 250,000 units per year of the new thermal BMW 5 Series
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Inovev forecasts 250,000 units per year of the new thermal BMW 5 Series
- BMW currently produces two models in the E-segment, both thermal and PHEV: the 5 Series sedan and the X5/X6 SUV. A third model will complete this segment, the i5 electric vehicle, based on the 5 Series, scheduled for fall 2023. This analysis concerns the new thermal 5 Series sedan.
- The eighth generation of the 5 Series, eternal competitor of the Audi A6 and Mercedes E-Class, has just been unveiled. This new 5 Series (code G60), 5.06 m long (+10 cm compared to the previous model) will still be produced in Germany (Dingolfing) and China (Shenyang). Interestingly, since 2019, the 5 Series has been produced more in China (but not imported to Europe) than in Germany. The new model will be available in a thermal version and in a battery electric version named i5. This i5 will complete the Bavarian brand's range of BEVs made up of the i4, i7, iX, iX1 and iX3, the i3 model having been discontinued at the beginning of this year.
- The thermal engines of the 5 Series are 2-liter petrol and diesel, like its competitor the Mercedes E-Class, and as for the E-Class, they will be available in mild-hybrid (MHEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV) versions. The carmaker claims CO2 emissions of between 130 g/km and 144 g/km, down from the previous model. A Touring station wagon is scheduled for 2024, replacing the old Touring versions. Mercedes also offers a station wagon on its E-Class range.
- In terms of production volume, the 5 Series reached a pic in the 2012-2015 years with a volume of 350,000 units per year, then the model experienced a slow but steady decline until 2022 when the model did not exceeded 250,000 units produced. Inovev is forecasting 250,000 new BMW 5 Series produced worldwide per year, not marking any progress compared to the previous generation because the years 2023-2030 will not be good years for thermal engine sedans. The BMW i5 on its side should gradually reach 45,000 units per year in Europe by 2030.
The market share of B and C segments remained stable in Europe
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The market share of B and C segments remained stable in Europe
- The European passenger car automotive market has declined over the last three years (2020-2021-2022) but it seems that B and C segments cars have been the most impacted in terms of volume. However, in terms of market share, these two segments have held up well, since they have been stable over the past three years, at around 35% of the European market for each segment.
- However, it can be observed that since 2021, the market share of B-segment car sales has caught up with the C-segment, no doubt due to the development of B-segment SUVs. The stability of the C-segment hides the fact that sales of sedans in this segment have declined significantly regarding the strong growth of SUVs.
- Compared to the Chinese market, the European market is more a small car market, with the B and C segments having 70% of the market in Europe and only 40% in China.
- Sales of D-segment cars have fallen from 20% of the European market in the early 2000s to 15% in 2022, but this market share has been stable for five years, again with growth of SUV sales and a decline of sedans.
- Sales of A-segment and E-segment cars have each fallen from 10% to 6% in 2022, but while E-segment sales have remained stable for the past five years, A-segment sales continue to decline due to the gradual disappearance of cars from this segment in Europe.
Some car brands could exit the Chinese market
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Some car brands could exit the Chinese market
- While the production volume of passenger cars in China increased by 8% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, several brands saw their production volume drop sharply during this period, which could suggest that some brands are gradually exiting the Chinese market, in favor of Chinese local brands. We can define two groups of brands in strong decline on the Chinese market: on one hand most Japanese and Korean brands, and on the other, a certain number of American and European brands.
- Japanese and Korean brands.
Hyundai's production volume fell by 13% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, Honda by 17%, Nissan by 20%, Mazda by 45%, Kia by 53%, Infiniti by 56%, Mitsubishi by 74%. As for Suzuki, its production was definitively stopped in December 2022.
Hyundai's production volume fell by 13% between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, Honda by 17%, Nissan by 20%, Mazda by 45%, Kia by 53%, Infiniti by 56%, Mitsubishi by 74%. As for Suzuki, its production was definitively stopped in December 2022.
- American and European brands.
Cadillac's production volume fell by 17%, DS by 19%, Peugeot by 28%, Citroën by 34%, Lincoln by 45%, Skoda by 69%. As for Jeep, its production was permanently halted in June 2022.
Cadillac's production volume fell by 17%, DS by 19%, Peugeot by 28%, Citroën by 34%, Lincoln by 45%, Skoda by 69%. As for Jeep, its production was permanently halted in June 2022.
- It should be noted that the Wuling firm accounted in the American group GM saw its production drop by 45% due to the fall in sales of the Hongguang Mini EV which had nevertheless become the best-selling car in China in 2021 and 2022. The reasons of this fall are currently being analysed by Inovev.
D-segment cars is the most import in the Chinese market
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D-segment cars is the most import in the Chinese market
- The Chinese passenger car market, which emerged in the early 2000s to become the largest market in the world twenty years later, was first a market MPVs and minivans, as in a certain number of countries in the South - East Asia. The market share of these vehicles has collapsed very quickly, gradually falling from 33% in the early 2000s to 20% in 2011, 10% in 2018 and 6% in 2022. With the enrichment of the middle classes, demand quickly shifted to sedans and SUVs.
- Sales growth was strongest in C-segment cars which gradually increased from 30% in the early 2000s to 55% in 2016, then these sales collapsed due to strong growth in car sales D-segment cars. C-segment cars only represents 36% of the Chinese market in 2022.
- The sales growth of D-segment cars perfectly illustrates the enrichment of the middle classes in China, these sales having increased from 20% in 2016 to 33% in 2019, 40% in 2021 and 44% in 2022, the D-segment having even supplanted the C-segment in 2022. It has thus become the most important segment in the Chinese market.
- At the same time, we are seeing an erosion in sales of A and B segment cars, which together represented 20% of the Chinese market in the early 2000s, but only 8% in 2022, even after a rebound of the A-segment (due to the success of the Wuling MinEV). The E and F segments remain very weak (5% of the market in 2022 between them, compared to 2% at the start of the 2000s).
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