Global market grew by 12.9% in 2023 compared to 2022
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Global market grew by 12.9% in 2023 compared to 2022
- According to Inovev, the global automobile market increased by 12.9% in 2023 compared to 2022. This revival of the global market last year is, however, a modest catch-up from the period 2020-2022 which had seen sales of new vehicles collapse, for several successive and additional reasons, such as the COVID crisis (2020), the semiconductor crisis (2021 and 2022) and the supply chain crisis (2022). These three years resulted in the loss of between 30 million and 40 million vehicles in total, but the catch-up in 2023 only offset a small part of this volume, i.e. 10 million vehicles, returning to a level reached in 2019 but which was already lower than those of the years 2016-2017-2018. The volume of new vehicle registrations barely exceeds 82 million units in 2023, compared to 84 million in 2016, 86 million in 2017 and 86 million in 2018.
- The most dynamic countries in 2023 were Turkey (+56.0% due to anticipations of purchases before an increase in tariffs and taxes in 2024), Russia (+36.3% after a collapse of 58 .8% in 2022) and Mexico (+25.4%) but their relatively low overall volume has not really influenced global growth.
- It is mainly China (+12%), the United States (+12.1%) and Europe 29 countries (+13.7%) which – due to their large volume – have influenced the global growth, with these three regions representing 70% of global passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sales.
- According to Inovev, the recovery of the global automobile market is expected to continue in 2024, with a volume of approximately 84 million units.
Japanese market grows by 15.8% in 2023 compared to 2022
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Japanese market grows by 15.8% in 2023 compared to 2022
- The Japanese passenger cars market experienced a recovery in 2023, of around 15.8% compared to 2022, with a volume of 3,992,728 units compared to 3,448,298 in 2022, 3,675,698 in 2021 and 3,809,981 in 2020. In Japan too, the recovery of missed sales from the 2020-2022 period was only partial, as nearly 2 million units lost were only compensated by a growth of 500,000 units, in 2023, meaning a quarter of what would have been needed.
- However, the Japanese automobile market came very close to the 4 million unit mark last year, while remaining below the volumes reached between 2012 and 2019, which were between 4.2 million and 4.7 million units. The year 2022 seems to have reach the bottom with a volume of nearly 3.5 million units equivalent to the 2011 year, when Japan was hit by a tsunami causing major damage. The year 2024 should show a small increase in sales compared to 2023.
- By carmaker, the Toyota group (Toyota, Lexus, Daihatsu) still represents almost half of new cars sold in Japan (48% in 2023), far ahead of Honda (14%), Suzuki (13%), Nissan (10%) and Mazda (4%). If Suzuki is well ahead of Nissan (former number 2 in the last quarter of the 20th century), it is due to its small cars which represent half of the Kei Cars sold in Japan. And today, this market segment represents a third of the Japanese market, explaining the position of Suzuki (and its competitor Daihatsu, owned by Toyota) in this market. Imports have represented 6% of the Japanese market for around twenty years, and we will still be in this share in 2023.
Chinese market grows by 10.2% in 2023 compared to 2022
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Chinese market grows by 10.2% in 2023 compared to 2022
- The Chinese passenger cars market returned to growth from 2021 after three years of decline. It reached the record of 25.9 million units in 2023 compared to 23.6 million in 2022, 21.5 million in 2021 and 20.2 million in 2020. The 30 million units may probably be reached in 2025. Last year, China remained by far the world's largest automobile market, ahead of Europe and the United States. It also remains by far the leading market for BEVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEV). Out of 25.9 million passenger car sales in 2023, there are 6,132,487 BEV sales (or 23.7% of the market) and 2,735,656 PHEV sales (10.6% of the market).
- By carmakers, we have observed for several years the declining influence of foreign carmakers (especially European), facing the increasing Chinese carmakers who now hold 55% of the Chinese market compared to 40% in 2020.
- The progression of Chinese brands, which was pushed by the growth of BEV and PHEV sales, particularly helping the BYD group which caught up with the “leader” Volkswagen group, with 13% market share for each of the two carmakers. BYD sold 3 million vehicles in China last year, including 53% BEV and 47% PHEV, while Volkswagen also sold 3 million vehicles but only 6% BEV and 1% PHEV. The Europeans' delay in electric motorization is obvious and could amplify their decline over the coming years.
- Behind Volkswagen and BYD, GM (8%) is followed by Geely (8%) and Toyota (7%) is followed by Chery (7%). Tesla occupies 4% of the Chinese market, while Stellantis completely disappears from the Chinese market.
Russian market grows by 36.3% in 2023 compared to 2022
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Russian market grows by 36.3% in 2023 compared to 2022
- The Russian passenger cars market experienced a small recovery in 2023, after the collapse observed in 2022 mainly due to Russia's involvement in the war in Ukraine and Western countries economic sanctions which resulted in the shutdown production, sales and imports of European, Japanese and Korean cars.
- From 687,370 new passenger cars registered in 2022, the market recorded 937,081 sales in 2023, representing an increase of 36.3%. However, the war in Ukraine is not over and economic sanctions against Russia continue. We are still very far from the figures recorded in previous years, such as 1,666,780 units in 2021 or 1,759,532 in 2019. And even further from the 2012 record with almost 3 million units.
- With the departure of European, Japanese and Korean brands, the Russian market is completely changing its physiognomy. Indeed, if Avtovaz (Lada), which becomes independent again in 2022, returns to its traditional level (with nearly 40% market share), Chinese automobile brands have gradually taken the place of European, Japanese and Korean brands. In 2023, they represented 49% of the Russian market, compared to 18% in 2022 and 7% in 2021. Nearly 460,000 Chinese cars were registered in Russia in 2023. This massive arrival of Chinese cars in Russia made it possible to restock and to restart the market, and to partially “catch up” the missed sales in 2022. It is mainly the Chery brands (45% of Chinese car sales), Great Wall (30%) and Geely (20%) which currently represent almost all sales of Chinese cars in Russia.
Toyota plant in Onnaing consolidates its position as the leading production plant in France in 2023
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Toyota plant in Onnaing consolidates its position as the leading production plant in France in 2023
- According to Inovev, automobile production in France would have increased slightly in 2023 compared to 2022, by around 2% to reach 1.41 million passenger cars and light utility vehicles, compared to 1.385 million units in 2022.
- Regardless of the fact that the relocation in France of models is still awaited, several reasons explain this fragile growth of the production in France.
1. At Stellantis, the end of the Peugeot 3008 current generation of the and the recent start of the recent Peugeot 408.
The DS3 and DS7 remain at a very low level, reflecting the difficulties of French carmakers in the Premium market.
The DS3 and DS7 remain at a very low level, reflecting the difficulties of French carmakers in the Premium market.
2. At Renault, the end of the Scénic and Zoé current generation, as well as the Nissan Micra, and the modest success of the recent Mégane E-Tech. We can add the difficult start of the Renault Kangoo (opposed by the Renault Express) but fortunately helped by the Nissan Townstar and Mercedes Citan / T Class.
3. At Smart, the end of Fortwo current generation and the modest success of the Ineos Grenadier.
4. At Toyota, the transfer of the Yaris to the Czech Republic is successfully offset by the good results of the Yaris Cross which consolidates its position as the most produced car in France. Thanks to this success, the Toyota plant in Onnaing consolidates its position as the leading production plant in France, with a volume of 273,788 vehicles produced in 2023 compared to 255,584 in 2022. We do not see how this position could be questioned in 2024.
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