The Russian market will not reach 3 million units in 2013

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The Russian market will not reach 3 million units in 2013
 
- The Russian market will likely not reach 3 million vehicles (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) in 2013. The market, which had accounted for 2,935,111 vehicles in 2012 (against 2,653,408 vehicles in 2011), slows down every month since last year. Beginning in 2013, the downturn continues: the Russian market increased by 5% in January, and then only  2% in February and declined 3.5% in March.

- The Russian market had reached a  first peak in 2008 (2,849,330  vehicles), after a gentle growth period that began in 2004, following the economic "boom" and its consequences (increase of GDP, wages, household consumption...).
 
- The 2008 crisis and an uncontrolled economic development have led to a collapse of the market in 2009 ( down to 1,465,917 units), which then decreased by 49% in twelve months.
 
- Pushed by  incentives introduced by the Government and which favoured vehicles produced locally, the market was revived in 2010 (to 1,910,573 vehicles), continued to grow in 2011 and reached a second peak in 2012.
 
- In 2013, the incentives seem to have lost their beneficial effects. Consequently the market will likely achieve poorer results than in 2012.

- Regarding carmakers, the AvtoVAZ-Renault-Nissan group is in first position in 2012 with 31% market share, ahead of GM (12.8%), Hyundai-Kia (12.3%) and VW (11.0 %).
 

13-17-9

 

GM more ambitious than VW in China

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GM more ambitious than VW in China
 

- In 2012, GM and VW groups have each sold 2.8 million passenger cars in China (2.6 million vehicles produced in China and 200,000 vehicles imported). Both groups run neck and neck in the Chinese market with a market share of 18% each in 2012 and both aim to sell 3 million vehicles in China in 2013. However, on the next short term period (2015-2018), GM Group has a greater ambition than the VW group in the Chinese market.


- The objectives announced by GM are:

- Bring the annual production capacity  to 5 million  vehicles by 2015 with the construction of four new plants (to a total of 17 plants).

- Expand the sales network to 4,200 dealers at the end of 2013.


- The objectives announced by VW are:

- Increase the production capacity to 4 million vehicles by 2018 with the construction of four new plants (to a total of 21 plants)

- Develop the sales network from currently 2,100 dealers to 3000 dealers on medium term.


- The ambitions of GM and VW may reflect a different vision of the future of the automotive market:

- For GM, the Chinese market  would continue to grow at least at the same rate  as today. GM’s objective is to  increase its  market share at the expense of competitors,

- For VW, the growth of the Chinese market would become lower than  today. VW’s  objective is to maintain its market share.

 

13-17-8

 

The three Baltic States have lost 50% of their market volume since 2007

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The three Baltic States have lost 50% of their market volume since 2007
 
- The automobile market in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), that we combine for historical reasons, is one of the smallest European markets.
 
- The entrance of these countries into the European Union,leading to the end of trade barriers and the provision of subsidies for infrastructure improvements have allowed the market to double in volume between 2004 and 2007 (from 40 000 units to 84,000 units).
 
- The 2008 financial crisis caused the market to collapse, reaching in 2009 a sales volume of 20,000 units. The market then rose back to early 2000 levels (40 000 units in 2012).
 
- The Baltic market has therefor returned to its natural level, located around 40 000 units. The entry into the European Union and the financial crisis have thus had only an accelerating effect on the market.
 
- In the first three months of 2013, however, this market is up by 4% (compared to the first three months of 2012), continuing in its 2010 progression.

- Per carmakers, the VW group is ahead of its competitors. Followed by Toyota, Renault-Nissan and the Hyundai-Kia groups.

 

13-17-7

 

PSA and VW are growing in China, but to different ways

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PSA and VW are growing in China, but to different ways
 

- In the early 90s, the Volkswagen and PSA groups established themselves in China at the same time, the first with Shanghai Automotive (SAIC) and the second with Dongfeng (DFM). These were the first two foreign carmakers based in China. Since then,the German group has experienced a much higher growth than the French group.


- Indeed, both groups had a market outreach strategy and therefore offered very different products:

-At first VW,, put on the market the Santana, and then developed a full range of very different models, some specific to the Chinese market (VW Lavida, Magotan).

-PSA remained a very long time with a small range of derivatives of the Citroen ZX without developing in parallel new models.

 - VW management better measured the extent of the Chinese market. Entering the Chinese market at the same time, the gap between the two carmakers has been ever increasing since.Today, in China, the VW group has six times more sales than PSA.

- Sales of the Volkswagen Group in China overtook those made in Germany in 2009 onwards,while the sales of PSA in China exceeded those made in France in 2013. As of 2011, sales of the Volkswagen group in China represented twice those made in Germany, and the gap is becoming more and more marked since.

13-17-6

 

Ford is relaunching the Escort on the Chinese market

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Ford is relaunching the Escort on the Chinese market
 

- Ford is reusing the name Escort lost a dozen years to name a new midsize sedan, lying between the Fiesta and the Focus. For now, this model is intended only for the Chinese market, that has a high demand for sedans with boots.

 

- Ford thus unveiled at Shanghai a concept car sedan with a boot that bears the name Escort (whose origins go back to 1968 and named a sedan with a boot). The new Escort borrows its chassis from the Focus, that had driven the Escort out of Europe in the early 2000s.

 

- This small Ford Mondeowill be competing with the Volkswagen Bora and Lavida, two very common models in China, and the Japanese and Korean models of the same segment.


- Since 2009 Ford has a high increase in sales on the Chinese market, the Focus has become one of the most sold cars in this market (300 000 units in 2012, three-quarters of Ford's sales).


13-17-4

 

  1. The Ukrainian market has lost 60% of its volume since 2008
  2. The New Zealand market has increased by 19.1% in 2012 (over 2011)
  3. The Nissan Altima is the car the most in the U.S. in March 2013
  4. China is driving growth in global passenger car sales in the first quarter of 2013
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