Nissan and Dongfeng are going to produce Infiniti cars in China in 2016

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Nissan and Dongfeng are going to produce Infiniti cars in China in 2016

- China is expected to become the largest market for premium cars from 2016, with 2.3 million units sold in this segment (against 2.2 million units planned in the American market, thats is currently the world's largest market of premium vehicles). Until now, the Toyota and Renault-Nissan groups were not producing their premium Lexus and Infiniti brands in this country. Only the German Audi, BMW and Mercedes brands, as well as the American brand Cadillac and the  Swedish brand Volvo currently produce high end models in China. In this specific market, Chinese carmaker's Premium models (excluding JV) are still very confidential.


- Infiniti has decided to produce high-end cars in China (in partnership with Dongfeng) for the local market as of 2016. The objective of the brand is to produce and sell 100 000 cars a year, against 35 000 today, all of which are imported from Japan (Q50 / Q60 / Q70 / QX50 / QX60 / QX70 / QX80 models). In addition to the vehicles already imported the ESQ and Q30 models could be produced in the existing Dongfeng-Nissan plant located in Xiangyang (Hubei), which has a capacity of 250 000 vehicles per year and produces the sedan Sylphy / New Sylphy and Teana.


- By 2020, more than 3 million premium cars should be sold in China, against 2.3 million in the United States out of a total 10 million units worldwide. Infiniti aims 500 000 global sales by 2020.


14-28-9  


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Belgian production Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Belgian production Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Belgian automotive production has lost half its volume in nine years, from 900 000 vehicles in 2005 to 440 000 in 2014. The reason for the decline was due to two main factors: first, the decline in the European market of nearly 25% between 2007 and 2013 which consequently affected Belgian production, like most of the producing countries in Europe. On the other hand, the transfer of production from local plants to other foreign plants, which resulted in two plant closures in recent years, the GM plant of Antwerp late 2010 and the Ford plant of Genk late 2014.


- Belgian production is expected to end the year at -9% in 2014 compared to 2013 In 2015, Belgian production is expected to reach nearly 410 000 units (-7% compared to 2014). Five different models will be manufactured at two plants (against seven in 2014): the Audi A1 and Q1 in Brussels and the Volvo XC60, S60 and V40 in Ghent. In 2015, only two carmakers will remain in Belgium: Audi in the Forest plant (Brussels) and Volvo in Ghent. They currently have no intention of leaving Belgium because these manufacturers use all their capacity and therefore do not suffer from overcapacity, unlike most mainstream manufacturers in Europe who underuse their plants.


- Audi and Volvo are indeed Premium manufacturers, a market segment that is growing around the world, while the number of premium brands hasn't increased accordingly, which is boosting the sales volume of both carmakers.


14-28-7  


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Polish market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Polish market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- The Polish automotive market (PC + LUV) should experience an increase of approximately 16% in 2014 compared to 2013 reaching 385 000 units. The growth was particularly strong in the first quarter of 2014, as the first 3 months of the year marked the end of government incentives. These government incentives allowed companies to claim VAT deductions for the purchase of new vehicles. This created anticipated purchases. Another phenomenon to be considered is the re-export of vehicles purchased in Poland to Western Europe, particularly towards Germany. The Polish car market is artificially overestimated due to these re-exports.

- For 2015, Inovev expects (in its most pessimistic scenario) a small increase compared to 2014 (up 3%), the market should reach the 400 000 units. The increase will be smaller in 2014, since the re-exporting market will follow the demand of Western Europe, which itself should only be up slightly. Nevertheless, it would not be surprising if market growth was more important, since the economic projections for 2015 (supplied by the OECD) indicate that domestic demand and exports are expected to maintain the country's current momentum. Of course, the geopolitical situation in Ukraine could also affect the Polish automotive market.

- Poland is one of the European countries that imports the most vehicles: 97% of cars sold in Poland in 2014 were imported from abroad, almost as much as in countries that do not produce any vehicles. Poland only produces 6 models out of the 350 models available on the market.

14-28-6  


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Polish production Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Polish production Forecast for 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Polish car production rose steadily until 2009-2011, passing for the first time the production threshold of 1 million vehicles a year. Since then,  production volume has been reduced by half. And this for several reasons: first, the decline of the European market as a whole, which was even more important in Eastern Europe (-35% decrease over this period), a main area for Polish production. Then, the production transfer of some models to other foreign plants such as the Fiat Panda (200 000 to 300 000 units before 2012) that was transferred to Italy in 2012 or the Opel Zafira (100 000 units in 2011) that was transferred to Germany in 2011 was not offset by the arrival of the Lancia Ypsilon (70 000 annual units ) and the Opel Cascada (10 000 annual units ).

- The overall loss would represent between 220 000 and 320 000 vehicles per year, plus the end of activity of the Autozaz plant in Zeran (Warsaw) which equalled 100 000 vehicles produced each year. The project to manufacture the Chevrolet on this site was abandoned since GM decided to discontinue the Chevrolet brand in Europe. In addition, Poland has lost many relocations in recent years to the benefit of Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary. For the year 2014, the Polish production should be relatively stable (up 3% compared to 2013). In 2015, no new models are planned to arrive in the Fiat plant (Tichy), Opel (Gliwice) and VW (Poznan). However, the expected sales increase of locally produced models in Poland could allow a growth of around 12%, reaching a volume of 600 000 units.

14-28-8  


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Dutch market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

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Dutch market forecast in 2015 (PC + LUV)

- Sales inside the Dutch automotive market (PC + LUV) have declined by nearly 35%  between 2000 and 2013. With a level of 470 000 vehicles in 2013 (against 700 000 in 2000), the market is expected to end 2014 with a decrease of 2% (reaching 460 000 units), the end of 2013 was distorted by anticipated purchases prior to the introduction of a series of new taxes on vehicle pricing.


- In 2015, the Dutch market may trigger a modest restart (+ 3% expected by Inovev in 2015) and settle at a level close to 470 000 units. The purchase of vehicles is becoming less and less important. A phenomenon found in Europe but much more present in the Netherlands, with on one hand, the development of public transport or alternative transport and on the other, at a lesser extent the social status associated with vehicles. From an economic point of view, the growth in 2015 expected by the CPB (Centraal Plan Bureau) should be of 1.25% in 2015. The demand from professionals should not be greater than in previous years .


- The Dutch market, which imports 100% of its models, is one of the European markets where vehicles from segments A and B are the most numerous. They make up 53% of the market in 2013, a figure rarely equalled in other European markets (the average for this type of vehicle in the EU was 43% in 2013).


14-28-5  


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  1. Ford unveils the new S-Max
  2. Belgian market forecast in 2015 (PC + LCV)
  3. Ford introduces the new Mondeo
  4. Chinese carmakers (without JV) dropped to 28% market share in China in 2014
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