The Ukrainian market has lost two thirds of its volume since 2008

Ukrainian passenger car market fell by 10.2% in 2013, down to 213,322 units (against 237,602 in 2012 and 220,619 in 2011).
This market, geographically and politically close to Russia is comparable to that of Sweden, while the population is five times greater in Ukraine than in Sweden (46 million against 9.2 million). The motorization rate is therefore five times lower in Ukraine than in Sweden (about 100 cars per 1 000 inhabitants in Ukraine). It is hardly higher than in Iran, and 2.5 times lower than in Russia.
Ukrainian passenger car market has experienced two exceptional years in 2007 and 2008 ( around 600,000 units per year), but it’s regular level is around 300,000 units per year.Since 2009, the country is immerged into a deep economic crisis (debt).


As for carmakers, the Renault -Nissan group is leader of the Ukrainian market (thanks in part to AvtoVAZ) with 15% market share, ahead of the Hyundai-Kia group (14%), the Volkswagen group (13%) and ZAZ (8%), a local manufacturer that produces former Daewoo vehicles under its name. Note that the largest increase in three years has been achieved by the Chinese automaker Geely, which rose from 3% of the Ukrainian market in 2011 to 5% in 2012 and 8 % in 2013.


As for models, the ZAZ Sens (=Daewoo Lanos), which is produced in Ukraine, remains the market leader in 2013 (7,096 units), ahead of Hyundai Accent (5,573 units) , Geely CK (5069 units) , ZAZ Vida (Chevrolet Aveo) and Renault Logan (Logan Dacia).


14-09-2  

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Ukrainian production collapsed after 2008

Ukrainian automobile production followed exactly the curve of the domestic market, which fell in 2009 and has not really recovered since. The 2008 financial crisis has placed the country in a situation of near bankruptcy like Greece in southeastern Europe.

Banks limited drastically access to credit in 2009. Consequently car sales, that had boomed in 2007 and 2008, suddenly tumbled by almost 65%! Ukrainian automobile production that supplied the domestic market with only 4 carmakers (ZAZ , Bogdan , Krasz, Eurocar) selling nine different brands (ZAZ, Lada, Chery, Geely, Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, Skoda, Ssangyong) collapsed at the same time, from 400,000 units annually in 2007 and 2008 to less than 100,000 from 2009 ( a drop of over 75 %). In 2013 , less than 50,000 vehicles were produced in Ukraine, and the question of the survival of the automobile industry in this country is now acute.

Note that the Ukrainian vehicles are produced by using kits from abroad: ZAZ Sens (from Korea = Daewoo Lanos), ZAZ Forza (from China Chery = Fulwin2 ) A13 Chery and Geely CK (from China) , Lada 2110 (from Russia), Chevrolet Aveo (from Korea) , Hyundai, Kia and Ssangyong (from Korea), Skoda (from Czech Republic).

14-09-3  

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Mini will use a third production plant from summer 2014

The German BMW group announced last year that it would begin in the second half of 2014 to assemble the new Mini in the Netherlands, in Nedcar Born plant (ex -Mitsubishi ).

The Mini brand has recorded significant continuous growth for ten years and therefore needs additional production complementary capacities, in addition to those of Oxford and Graz plants.

A new 5-door version will be launched in 2014 to compete with the 5-door Premium category sedans, such as the Audi A1 Sportback. This 5-door version is the one that should be produced in Born.

The carmaker forecasts a five-figure production cruising volume figures for 2014. The capacity of the Born plant is currently around 100,000 units per year. The production in the launch year 2014 should range from 10 000 to 50 000 vehicles.

Over 60 % of 300,000 Mini made in 2013 were produced in the UK plant, which has a capacity of 250,000 vehicles per year. More than 100 000 Mini Countryman and Paceman were assembled last year in Graz, the Austrian Magna Steyr assembly site, which has a capacity of 150,000 vehicles per year.

With the contribution of the Born plant, the production of the Mini could exceed 400,000 units per year, i.e. the equivalent of a manufacturer like Volvo.

14-08-8  

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Production and market in Kazakhstan have nearly doubled in 2013

The production of passenger vehicles (PC) in Kazakhstan is expected to almost double in 2014 to more than 60,000 units, I.E. a little less than Serbia (to compare to a European country). In 2013, the country assembled 37,469 cars (from CKD), which is twice more than the previous year, plus 992 buses.

The main assembly plant of the country (Asia Auto) produces cars under license (31,005 in 2013 against 16,513 in 2012).

Main brands are Lada, Skoda, Chevrolet and Kia. Asia Auto Production is composed mainly of B and C segments as well as  SUVs, all sold locally .

The passenger car (PC) market of Kazakhstan (17 million inhabitants) is also growing rapidly, rising from 86,961 units in 2012 to 153 665 in 2013, which represents an increase of nearly 80 %. Kazakh market of passenger cars is now equivalent to the Algerian market (159,904 in 2013) and higher than that of Greece (11 million inhabitants), Portugal (11 million inhabitants) and Finland (5 million inhabitants).

In 2013, 76 % of registrations came from imports (78 % in 2012) , mainly from Russia and Uzbekistan. The brands most sold in 2013 were Lada ( 57,478 units ), ahead of Daewoo ( 13,371 units ), Hyundai ( 12,250 units ), Toyota ( 12,132 units ), Kia (11,913 units ), Chevrolet ( 10 041 units ), Nissan ( 6,392 units ), Renault ( 4,920 units) and Skoda ( 4,703 units).

14-08-10  

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Geely terminates its multi-brand strategy

The multi-brand strategy of Chinese groups is today questioned by most independent carmakers. The relevance of this strategy was analyzed by Inovev in March 2013, when Chery decided to no longer produce its brands Rely , Riich and Cowin (see analysis "The Chinese groups' multi-brand strategy called into question").


At take-off of the Chinese automobile market, independent Chinese carmakers had the idea of creating sub-brands to increase sales in a booming market with the hope to reach multiple audiences.


Actually Chinese brands marketed very similar models at very similar price. The sales figures of these brands have never really taken off. In addition, they cannibalized the parent brands.


Geely Group, Chery’s competitor, has carried out the same analysis as Chery and decided to act accordingly. The Emgrand , Gleagle and Englon brands that were born in 2009, will disappear by the end of 2014. Geely will focus its attention on a single brand, Geely brand.


This policy will enable Geely Group to provide a simplified and more consistent range.  The Swedish brand Volvo, owned by Geely, is not affected by this change.


14-08-9  

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