- The UK car market had declined significantly between 2007 and 2011, following the financial crisis. Which is why, the continued growth of this market recorded since 2012 (10% in 2013 and 10% in 2014), can be considered as a simple catch up, since the expected levels in 2014 (2.7 million units) will be close those of 2007, no more no less.

- The growth of the automobile market should certainly be lower in 2015 (2.4% according to Inovev), but there will be no decrease as one might have imagined last year. Indeed, there is currently no signs of such a scenario. Moreover growth forecasts for the United Kingdom (+2.7% in 2015) do not indicate any short term slowdown for this economy mainly based on loans.

- In this context, the sales volume of PC +LUVs is expected to exceed 2.7 million units, making it the second largest in Europe behind Germany. Let us recall that in the UK, only a small proportion of PC are purchased by individuals.

- The UK is the country that imports the most vehicles in the top five European markets: in 2014, 88% of vehicles sold in the UK were imported from abroad.

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- British car production has been growing ever since the drop in 2009, and today it is close behind the level of French production.

- UK production is healthy thanks to the success of the Nissan Qashqai, Nissan Juke, BMW Mini, which has offset the loss of Ford, once a major producer in Britain.

- Jaguar and Land Rover makes have especially benefited from the worldwide success of Premium brands, especially in Europe, the USA and China. Likewise, at a smaller scale for Aston Martin, Bentley and Rolls-Royce.

- Thus,  British production approaches once more a production capacity of 2 million vehicles per year (against 3 million for France) and the progression of the UK and European market as a whole can only improve this prognosis.

- In addition, the transfer of the Toyota Auris from Turkey to Britain in 2013, the arrival of the Nissan Leaf in 2013, the Infiniti Q30 in 2015, the Jaguar XE in 2015 will accentuate this phenomenon, even if in the same timeframe the GM Luton plant lost the manufacturing of the Renault Trafic in 2014 (transfer to the French Sandouville plant).

- Inovev expects a 7% increase in production between 2015 and 2014.

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- The European car market (29 countries) has lost 23% of its volume from 2007 to 2013, and this decline was extended for another six years after that. In 2014, for the first time since 2007, the European market finally seems to be picking up (+6% over the first 8 months of 2014).

- In 2015, the euro zone should experience a gradual growth in its economy (+1.5% according to the European Commission and the IMF), which will induce  an increase in consumer spending and a recovery in business investments.

- In this context and considering the automotive supply expected in this period Inovev tables on a reboot and a moderate growth in the European market between 2014 and 2015, of around 3%.

- Expected levels are still far far from those of 2005 to 2008 (17 to 18 million vehicles per year) but 15 million new vehicles sold in 2015 is a likely scenario (it is expected to reach 14.5 million units in 2014) .

- In the longer term, beyond economic factors, social factors must also be taken into account and may deeply impact the market : lower purchase rate among 1st time buyers , slower vehicle renewal rates and stricter vehicle restrictions in major cities, followed by the increase of car sharing and carpooling, development of public and alternative transport, declining demographics in some countries, etc …

Contact us: info@inovev.com 

Contact us: info@inovev.com