Global sales stablisation for internal combustion engine vehicles in 2025
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Global sales stablisation for internal combustion engine vehicles in 2025
- Despite the increase in global NEV (BEV + PHEV + F-HEV) sales in the first 8 months of 2025 compared to the first 8 months of 2024, representing 14,457,091 units versus 12,652,280, global sales of internal combustion engine vehicles remained stable during this period, at 25,327,470 units compared to 25,290,617. The graph below on the right clearly shows that after a significant decline since 2019 in Europe, the USA, and especially China, sales of internal combustion engine vehicles tended to stabilize in 2025, at around 50% of the market in China, around 65% in Europe, and around 80% in the USA.
- We note just a drop in the market share of thermal vehicles in the USA in August 2025, but this is entirely temporary as it is due to the record sales of BEVs, PHEVs and F-HEVs recorded that month, due to the expiration of the federal tax credit scheduled for September 30, 2025, a phenomenon that will not be repeated in the following months.
- In Japan, sales of internal combustion engine cars are also expected to remain stable in 2025, with their market share hovering around 65%.
- According to Inovev, the reason for this stabilization of internal combustion engine (ICE) sales in 2025 worldwide lies in a real slowdown in the electric vehicle transition (high cost of electric vehicles, reduction in government subsidies), the rise of mild hybrid (MHEV) technology integrated into internal combustion engines, and economic and regulatory uncertainties that are causing hesitation or even reversals among carmakers. In 2025, the market appears to have reached a plateau. The revival of electric vehicle sales could come from the launch of small electric models.
Slow growth in global F-HEV sales in 2025
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Slow growth in global F-HEV sales in 2025
- Global sales of full hybrid electric vehicles (F-HEVs) are expected to see relatively modest growth in 2025, rising from 3.1 million units in the first 8 months of 2024 to 3.5 million in the first 8 months of 2025.
- Japan, which had been the pioneer and leader in this type of powertrain in its domestic market, was overtaken in volume by the United States in 2024 (a difference of 250,000 units), and the gap between the two countries widened in 2025. In the first eight months of 2025, Japan purchased 864,383 F-HEVs, compared to 850,998 in the first eight months of 2024 and 832,206 in the first eight months of 2023. Sales of these models have tended to stabilize in Japan, or even decline, since last January. Their market share is projected to peak at 33-34% in 2025.
- Conversely, F-HEV sales are growing strongly in the United States, rising from 743,613 units in the first eight months of 2023 to 978,017 in the first eight months of 2024 and 1,282,433 in the first eight months of 2025. Their market share averages 12% in 2025 and even exceeded 14% in August. It appears that US customers prefer to opt for an F-HEV model rather than a PHEV or BEV.
- In Europe (30 countries), F-HEV sales are increasing, rising from 594,140 units in the first 8 months of 2023 to 765,570 in the first 8 months of 2024 and 828,648 in the first 8 months of 2025. Their market share reaches an average of 9.5% in 2025.
- Finally, in China, F-HEV sales increased from 455,227 in the first 8 months of 2023 to 470,690 in the first 8 months of 2024 and 578,994 in the first 8 months of 2025. Their market share reached an average of 3% in 2025.
China could reduce, or even eliminate, subsidies to carmakers
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China could reduce, or even eliminate, subsidies to carmakers
- The 4th Plenum of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China adopted the proposals of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the preparation of the 15th Five Years Plan for Economic and Social Development (2026-2030 plan). However, this plan, unlike its predecessor (14th Five Year Plan – 2025-2030), no longer mentions new energy vehicles (NEVs, including battery electric vehicles).
- Economists specializing in China have deduced that one consequence could be the gradual reduction, or even the elimination, of the massive subsidies that have supported this sector. This position of the Chinese government stems from the maturity reached by Chinese carmakers and the Chinese automotive market. BEVs, PHEVs and F-HEVs represent almost half of all sales in 2025. carmakers like BYD, Geely and Chery dominate the Chinese market and are making progress throughout Europe and Southeast Asia.
- The Chinese government's policies have fostered the creation of world-class carmakers and a comprehensive ecosystem encompassing batteries, components, and assembly. However, behind this undeniable success lies a weakness. More than 150 carmakers are currently operating in China, the majority of which hold only a tiny market share. Subsidies have encouraged an oversupply relative to actual demand, leading to fierce price wars among carmakers. Eliminating subsidies could lead to the demise of the weakest carmakers and encourage a process of natural selection within the Chinese automotive industry, where only the most powerful and profitable players survive.
Porsche is revising its engine strategy
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Porsche is revising its engine strategy
- Like most European car brands and due to the weak growth in sales of battery electric models, the Porsche brand (a subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group) is completely revising its engine strategy by abandoning the idea of producing only battery electric vehicles by 2030 and by prioritizing the launch of micro-hybrid, full-hybrid or plug-in hybrid petrol vehicles between 2026 and 2030.
- Boxster /Cayman: The models intended to succeed the Boxster and Cayman, also known as the 718, were initially planned to be equipped solely with an electric motor. They will ultimately also be offered with a mild-hybrid gasoline engine.
- Macan: the new Macan launched in 2024 which was launched only in a battery electric version will receive – although this was not planned at the start – a petrol engine in 2028, the time to technically adapt the electric model to a petrol version.
- Cayenne: the new battery electric version presented at the Munich Motor Show last September will not replace the current plug-in hybrid version. The latter will continue its production run longer than expected.
- Panamera: The replacement for the Panamera sedan, which was initially planned to launch only as a fully electric vehicle, has been postponed. The current plug-in hybrid model will therefore continue its production run longer than expected.
- Taycan: the only car from the brand that seems destined to be available only in a battery electric version.
- 911: the only Porsche car that will not be delivered in a battery electric version for a long time.
The US is planning to relax CO2 standards on vehicles
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The US is planning to relax CO2 standards on vehicles
- Biden administration had introduced new emissions standards for new vehicles in the United States starting in 2027, aiming for a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2032. These standards strongly encouraged the electrification of the vehicle fleet, with a target of 67% of sales being battery electric vehicles by 2032. However, these standards have been gradually relaxed and are therefore less strict than initially planned, in order not to unduly constrain the American automotive industry.
- In March 2025, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced plans to implement new emissions standards for light vehicles sold in the US between 2027 and 2032. Current standards would be relaxed and revised to offer more flexibility to carmakers.
- The main adjustment concerns the 50% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2032 compared to 2026 levels. Carmakers will have more time to achieve these targets, particularly due to industrial constraints and the costs associated with electrifying their vehicles. New projections from the US government predict that 30% to 56% of new vehicle sales will be battery electric by 2032.
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