Pickup truck production is steadily increasing in the USA
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Pickup truck production is steadily increasing in the USA
- The United States remains the leading producer of pickup trucks ahead of Thailand, but unlike Thailand, pickup trucks assembled in the United States are mainly sold in the United States and Canada. In 2024, the two countries assembled 2.67 million pickup trucks compared to 2.45 million in 2023 and 2.56 million in 2022, while Thailand produced only 750,000 in 2024, a sharp drop compared to 2023 and 2022. While pickup production in Thailand has been steadily declining since 2012-2013, it is the opposite in the United States as the production has been steadily increasing since 2009. The production volume there increased from 1.33 million units to 2.67 million in 2024, which represents a doubling of the production volume in fifteen years.
- The United States produces two categories of pickups, the "full size" category, i.e. large ones, which represent 80% of all pickup production since 2019, and the "intermediate" category, i.e. medium-sized ones, also produced in Thailand, which represent 20% of pickup production in the USA since 2019.
- Thus, large pickups represented 2.13 million units produced in 2024, compared to 510,000 for medium-sized pickups. It should be noted that Thailand still produces more medium-sized pickups than the United States today.
- By model, the Ford F-Series largely dominates all its competitors (nearly a million units produced in 2024), in particular its direct competitors Ram Pick-up, Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra. Japanese carmakers remain far behind American carmakers in the pick-up category, with only 12% of total production carried out in the United States, while the opposite is true in Thailand (82%).
Pick-up truck production drops dramatically in Thailand
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Pick-up truck production drops dramatically in Thailand
- Production of mid-range pickups has been concentrated in Thailand since the 1960s. American and Japanese carmakers gradually established plants there, until they represented a production volume of 600,000 units in 2005, sold in Thailand but mainly exported throughout the world. Production doubled between 2005 and 2012-2013, going from 600,000 to 1,200,000 units, as global markets increasingly demanded this type of vehicle.
- The years 2012 and 2013 actually marked a peak in production of mid-range pickups in Thailand because their production volume began to decline from that point on.
- It is probably the decline in global demand for mid-range pick-ups that has been responsible of Thailand production, in addition to the increasing competition of other countries, such as the USA, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil and South Africa. In 2024, pick-up production in Thailand will only represent 750,000 units compared to 950,000 in 2023 and 1,085,000 in 2022.
- By model, the Toyota Hilux remains the leader in pick-up production in Thailand, with 320,000 units produced in 2024 compared to 372,000 in 2023 and 439,000 in 2022. This model largely supplants the Isuzu D-Max, Ford Ranger and Mitsubishi Triton which also declined in 2024. The Nissan Navara now only represents a tiny share of production. As for the Chevrolet Colorado, Fiat Fullback and Mazda BT-50, they have completely disappeared from the Thai manufacturing program.
The Stellantis group has announced their products planning for Italian plants
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The Stellantis group has announced their products planning for Italian plants
- The Italian government had issued protests against the Stellantis automobile group last year, because it had observed that the successive launches of the group's European models concerned production sites outside Italy, even when they were models of Italian brands. Thus, the Fiat 600 and the Alfa-Romeo Junior are produced in Poland, the new Lancia Ypsilon is assembled in Spain and the Fiat Grande Panda in Serbia.
- The Stellantis group made new announcements last December, with the future launches of its models that would be assembled on Italian soil between 2025 and 2030.
- Compared to the carmaker's previous announcements, it is confirmed that the Fiat 500 e will have a replacement in 2030 again assembled at Mirafiori, based on the STLA Small platform or on the Smart Car platform used by the Grande Panda. New Alfa-Romeos will be launched in 2025, 2026 and 2026. These will use the STLA Large platform and will be assembled at the Cassino site.
- A new Fiat Panda will be launched in 2030 and assembled in Pomigliano, alongside a future Lancia Delta on the STLA Small platform. Finally, the Ducato light utility vehicles and re-branded versions will be renewed in 2027, with the same platform as today. As for Maserati, it seems that its future lies in a sale to Ferrari.
- The Stellantis group seems to be walk out on the all-electric policy, since all these models will be available on full electric, thermal or MHEV versions.
The new EU-Mercosur agreement will not have immediate effects for European carmakers
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The new EU-Mercosur agreement will not have immediate effects for European carmakers
- The current agreement between the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay) and the European Union was signed in June 2019 and completed in July 2020. In December 2024, Mercosur and the EU reached a political agreement on a modified version of the previous agreement, which must be ratified by EU members.
- This agreement confirms the gradual elimination of customs tariffs on thermal vehicles from Europe over a period of 15 years with a transitional period of 7 years accompanied by a quota of 50,000 vehicles exported per year. The elimination of tariffs on fully electric cars will be gradual over a longer period of 18 years but with an immediate reduction of 10% (from 35% to 25%). For European carmakers, this agreement will therefore not have significant immediate effects but will be done over the long term, as taxes are reduced. This should therefore not disrupt the position of the players currently in place and the market shares of each. Eventually, Chinese carmakers have the capacity to offer disruptive products and to have an aggressive commercial policy, which could take shares from other carmakers. This trend has started to be noticeable since 2023 with an increase in the share of Chinese carmakers to the detriment of European ones.
- The Mercosur vehicle market is around three million units each year: 3 million in 2024, compared to 2.74 million in 2023, 2.53 million in 2022, 2.51 million in 2021, 2.42 million in 2020, 3.25 million in 2019 and 3.39 million in 2018. Of this total, European carmakers accounted for 51% of total sales in Mercosur, compared to 52% in 2023 and 53% in 2022.
- Imports mainly concern premium vehicles that only a minority of Mercosur customers can afford. Indeed, the majority of cars produced in Brazil and Argentina (Uruguay and Paraguay do not produce cars) are more than sufficient to meet the demand of Mercosur customers. Furthermore, the agreement with the EU will not change the situation because the local clientele that can buy luxury cars is not expandable.
Volkswagen Group to cut production capacity by 734,000 vehicles per year in Germany
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Volkswagen Group to cut production capacity by 734,000 vehicles per year in Germany
- Last fall, the Volkswagen group announced that it had significant production overcapacity in Europe, particularly in Germany. In particular, it stated that it had been short of more than 500,000 sales each year since 2020 to saturate its production plants. Following these announcements, the closure of three or even four assembly plants in Germany has been expected. VW has finally avoided closing factories in Germany in favour of massive reductions of production capacities, which will result in the end of 35,000 job positions from the company between 2025 and 2030.
- The announced capacity reductions of 734,000 vehicles per year affect the sites of Wolfsburg (-400,000 units out of 800,000), Zwickau (-180,000 out of 360,000), Hanover (-100,000 out of 200,000), Dresden (-27,000 out of 27,000 at the end of 2025. The future of this factory has not yet been decided) and Osnabrück (-27,000 out of 27,000 – production until mid-2027, The future of this factory has not yet been decided).
- In terms of models, the Golf will be gradually transferred from Wolfsburg (Germany) to Puebla (Mexico) except for the new electric version which should be launched in 2028 to replace the ID3. The current VW ID3 and Cupra Born will be transferred from Zwickau (Germany) to Wolfsburg (Germany) alongside the VW Tiguan and Tayron. The VW ID4/ID5 will be transferred from Zwickau (Germany) to Emden (Germany) alongside the VW ID7 and ID7 Tourer. The VW Kombi and Transporter will be transferred from Hanover (Germany) to Kocaeli (Turkey) at Ford. The Dresden (Germany) and Osnabrück (Germany) plants will be converted for activities other than production, in 2025 for Dresden and in 2027 for Osnabrück (end of production of the VW T-Roc convertible). Zwickau will now only produce the Audi Q4 E-Tron. Hanover will now only produce the ID Buzz and Multivan.
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