Global automobile production of light vehicles over the first five months of 2021 (2/2)
Since 2010 (see graph below), the first year post global financial crisis, the global production volume of light vehicles (PC + LUV) had not stopped growing until 2019. The monthly rate of seasonality was respected - very high March and September and very low August. From a monthly rate of 6 to 7 million units from 2010 to 2013 then from 7 to 8 million from 2013 to 2016, then finally from 7 to 9 million from 2016 to 2019, the monthly rate fell to 7 million then 5 million in 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 crisis, then 3 million at the height of the crisis. Since then, the global rate has risen to 6-8 million per month, but we are still quite far from the rate from 2016 to 2019.

The ranking by carmakers over 4 months (the results over 5 months are not yet known) shows some changes. The biggest change is the decline of the GM group (ex-world leading group) which falls to sixth place, behind Stellantis and Hyundai-Kia. The Ford group is moving away from the Honda group which it was ahead of three years ago and which it largely overpassed before 2018.

The Suzuki group is making a comeback, making a significant gap with its pursuers Mercedes (ex-Daimler) and BMW, thanks to the revamp of the Indian market in which it is a leader. A revamp that also benefits to Tata Motors which returns in 2021 in the Top 15.


    
 

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BEV and PHEV in Chinese and European markets by segment
The distribution of battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles is very different in China and in Europe. In 2020, of the 995,397 BEVs sold in China, most of them were from the A-segments (313,487 units, or 31% of the Chinese BEV market) and D-segment (380,945 units, or 38% of the Chinese BEV market), when in Europe, with 726,245 BEVs sold in 2020, most of them were in D-segment (201,642 units, or 28% of the European BEV market) and E-segment (146,009 units, or 20% of the European market of BEVs). The Chinese BEV market is therefore focused on the entry-level (like the WulingHongGuang EV) and on the mid-range, while in Europe it is concentrated on the mid-range and on the upper segment.

There is therefore an entry-level BEV market that could be targeted in Europe, which is already the case by the Chinese carmakers in their home market. If European carmakers do not work on this market with an offer at the right price, Chinese carmakers may see here an opportunity for development outside their local market.

Regarding PHEVs, we observe the opposite phenomenon. The entry-level Chinese market does not exist, while Europe accounts for 61% of the PHEV market with segments B and C (389,420 units). The C segment alone represents 33% of PHEV sales in Europe (210,670 units), while in China, 59% of PHEV sales are in the D segment. By adding the E segment, we obtain 75% of the Chinese PHEVs market (209,015 units out of 276,561 total sales). The European PHEV market reached 638,568 units in 2020, or 2.3 times the volume of PHEVs registered in China.


    
 

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The distribution of LUVs assembled in Maubeuge and Tangier
At Renault, the Renault Kangoo is the competitor of the Citroën Berlingo, Peugeot Partner, Opel Combo and Toyota ProAce City family. The new generation of Kangoo arrived in the first half of 2021 after being unveiled last year.

The end of life of the previous Renault Kangoo was difficult because the launch of its replacement had been postponed several times. But this time, the new Renault Kangoo is here and it will be quickly declined in a Mercedes branded version named T-Class which will replace the Citan. It should then be declined in a Nissan version which should replace the current NV250. Moreover, the new Kangoo is marketed alongside the Renault Express (a former Renault model name) which in fact replaces the old Dacia Dokker. This model should represent as many sales as the Kangoo.

Last year, these four models represented a volume of 213,364 units produced in Maubeuge (Kangoo, Citan, NV250) and Tangier (Dokker), or 12% of all LUVs of all brands sold in Europe in 2020, against 13% in 2019 and 13.5% in 2018. The breakdown by model is as follows: 102,599 Dokker, 89,592 Kangoo, 17,263 Citan and 3,910 NV250.

Of this total, the Maubeuge plant produced 110,765 vehicles and the Tangier plant 102,599.

In the first four months of 2021, the breakdown by model is as follows: 32,852 Kangoo, 23,433 Express, 3,976 Citan, 1,529 NV250. This volume represents an annual rate of 185,000 units in total, but taking into account the launch of the future T-Class and NV250, it could represent more than 200,000 units per year.


    
 

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The distribution of LUVs assembled in Vigo and Mangualde
The Stellantis group has made Citroën Berlingo and Peugeot Partner / Rifterlight utility vehicles into genuine multi-brand vehicles. Indeed, after PSA purchased Opel in 2017, the Opel Combo swapped its Fiat Doblo plateform and body for the Berlingo and Partner one. Then an agreement between PSA and Toyota allowed the Japanese to market the ProAce City which uses the same body as for the Berlingo/Partner/Combo. And after the merger of PSA and FCA, the next generation of the Fiat Doblo (the current generation dates from 2010) should also use the same body used by the Berlingo/Partner/Combo/ProAce City.

Already and even without the next Doblo, the production plants in Vigo (Spain) and Mangualde (Portugal) are running at full capacity with the production of Citroën Berlingo, Peugeot Partner, Opel Combo and Toyota ProAce City.

In 2020, this family of models was produced at 371,113 units, spread over two plants: 303,367 in Vigo and 67,746 in MangualdeAll models except the Toyota are produced in both Vigo and Mangualde. The breakdown by model in 2020 across the two Vigo and Mangualdeplants is as follows: 157,286 Citroën Berlingo, 129,826 Peugeot Partner / Rifter, 65,289 Opel Combo and 18,712 Toyota ProAce City.

In the first 4 months of 2021, Stellantis produced 49,592 Citroën Berlingo, 41,471 Peugeot Partner / Rifter, 26,445 Opel Combo and 11,473 Toyota ProAce City, or 128,981 units in total, representing an annual rate of 375,000 units. This family of models therefore represents 20% of all LUVs of all brands sold in Europe in 2020 and 2021, which is considerable.


    
 

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New VW Caddy sales struggles to take off
The new generation of the Volkswagen Caddy (light utility vehicle from the segment N1-1) presented last year and marketed since January 2021 seems to experience some difficulties in starting its commercial career in Europe, its main market. It is to remind that this model is assembled in Poznan in Poland and that it competes head-on with the leaders of the small LUV market, which are on one hand the Citroën Berlingo, Pegeot Partner, Opel Combo, Toyota ProAce City, and on the other hand the Renault Kangoo, Renault Express, Nissan NV250, Mercedes Citan, which in total represent nearly a third of the total LUV market, all segments included in Europe (N1-1, N1-2 and N1-3). The Volkswagen Caddy also faces the Fiat Doblo and Ford Transit Courier / Transit Connect.

The objective is therefore difficult for the Volkswagen Caddy which represented 140,185 sales in 2019 and 103,381 sales in 2020, i.e. 6.4% of the LUV market in 2019 and 5.8% in 2020.

In the first four months of 2021, the situation is even more delicate, as the Volkswagen Caddy did not exceed 20,790 sales, which represents only 2.9% of total LUV sales in Europe over this period. And the annual sales rhythm is around 60,000 units, the lowest figure ever recorded for this model.

In reality, the new Caddy is ramping up but the progress seems laborious, especially compared to the production rates of the old version. The production volume for April 2021 is thus two times lower than that of April 2019, and the cumulative 4 months 2021 four times lower than the same period in 2019.


    
 

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