Review of the 2017 Tokyo Motor Show (1/2)

说明
Review of the 2017 Tokyo Motor Show (1/2)

- Synthesis of the Tokyo Show 2017:
Of the 21 main novelties of this show (whose photos appear in this document), there are 19 concept cars (including 5 close to the series) and 2 series cars (marketed from January 2018).
Of the 19 concept cars on display, there are 6 100% electric vehicles and 4 hybrid vehicles plus 1 fuel cell vehicle. 8 remain with thermal engine. In addition, 3 are equipped with autonomous driving.


- Classification by bodywork: Of the 21 innovations selected by Inovev, there are 5 SUVs, 8 sedans, 4 minivans or crossovers, 3 coupés or roadsters and 1 pickup. We observe that SUVs are not at all majorities at the Tokyo Motor Show. Sedans are predominant in the Tokyo Motor Show 2017.


- Ranking by segment: Of the 21 innovations retained by Inovev, there are 4 Kei Cars, 2 B-segment vehicles, 8 C-segment vehicles, 3 D-segment vehicles, 2 E-segment vehicles and 2 F-segment vehicles. We observe a homogeneous distribution of news on each segment.


- The Tokyo 2017 show focuses on Japanese concept cars, as the only two new series models are the third generation of the Toyota Century (F-segment limousine that now features a hybrid V8 5.0 and no longer 'a V12) and the Mazda CX8 which is an elongated version of the CX5.

17-22-TokyoMotorShow-1   


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Toyota will produce the future Auris in the UK but abandons the Avensis

说明
Toyota will produce the future Auris in the UK but abandons the Avensis
- Toyota has announced that it will produce the future Auris  (C-segment sedan), scheduled for 2018, in the UK, as is the current generation, despite the Brexit. Toyota believes that the British authorities will put in place a transition plan for Brexit, which is expected to last several years and which should fully or largely cover the life cycle of the future Auris, remembering that the life cycle of the current Auris is six years.

- On the other hand, it seems that the Avensis (D -segment sedan ) will not be replaced, or at least that its replacement will not be produced in the UK. It is true that sales of this model in Europe have declined significantly in recent years, from 120,000 units in 2005 to 33,500 in 2016. And the forecast for 2017 is less than 30,000 units.

- D-segment sedans have declined significantly among all manufacturers, victims of SUV competition, whose sales have increased significantly in the last ten years.

- Among the Japanese, Honda ceased the European production of the Accord in 2002, Mitsubishi that of Carisma in 2003 and Nissan that of the Primera in 2007. Toyota was the last Japanese to produce and market this type of sedan in Europe.

- Toyota will concentrate its European production on the Auris (UK ), the Yaris (France), the Aygo (Czech Republic) and the CHR (Turkey) since it seems that the minivan Verso will not be replaced.


17-22-7   

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Honda will close its Japanese Sayama factory

说明
Honda will close its Japanese Sayama factory
- Honda has announced that it will stop producing cars at one of its plants in Japan by 2022, reducing its capacity by nearly 25% in its domestic market, i.e. 300,000 units out of 1,200,000.

- The manufacturer believes that the Japanese market will remain sluggish over the next few years and that it can meet local demand with capacity equivalent to 900,000 units per year instead of 1,200,000 units, as they  produced no more than 800,000 vehicles in the country in 2016, and will not produce more in 2017.

- Analyzing Honda’s position, we can observe that:

1. Its production in Japan continues to decline while that in China and the USA continues to increase, and is now well beyond Japan production.

2. The Japanese Sayama plant (the historic Honda plant) only produces 12.5% of Honda's production in Japan (compared to 25% in 2010 and 40% in 2005). Indeed, the Sayama factory has been relieved of models that have established abroad or have not found their place on the market.

- Therefore, this plant will be closed in 2022 after the latest models still produced in this plant will be transferred to other under-utilized Honda sites in Japan. The internationalization of Honda production is therefore to the detriment of Japan.


17-22-6   

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Ford will further increase its pick-up and SUV ranges

说明
Ford will further increase its pick-up and SUV ranges
- The Ford Group, currently the world's sixth largest automaker (6.7 million vehicles sold in 2016), has decided to refocus on their most profitable vehicle categories, namely pick-ups and SUVs.

- Currently, Ford is the world's largest manufacturer of pickups (1.2 million units in 2016) and the world's sixth largest SUV manufacturer (1.7 million units in 2016).

- These two categories already account for 43% of Ford's worldwide sales (and even 73% in the United States) and the manufacturer's goal would be to reach or even exceed 50% worldwide and 75% in the United States.

- To do this, the Ford group has decided to transfer the investments that were intended for the development of compact sedans (Focus) and subcompact (Fiesta), towards the development of pickups and SUVs.

- In addition, the manufacturer wants to produce more in countries where labor is cheaper: the future Ford Focus to be marketed in North America will be manufactured in China.

- Finally, Ford will invest in the development of electric vehicles, announcing 13 new models of this type by 2022. The manufacturer notes that China and Europe (where it sells 2 million vehicles per year) are increasing their ecological objectives (unlike the United States) which will cause a tightening of environmental standards.


17-22-8   

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PSA-Mitsubishi plant in Kaluga could become 100% Mitsubishi

说明
PSA-Mitsubishi plant in Kaluga could become 100% Mitsubishi
- Starting in 2010, the Kaluga automotive plant in Russia, owned 50% by PSA and 50% by Mitsubishi, produced a total of 36,000 PSA cars and 9,000 Mitsubishi cars in 2011, but since that date, the production volume of PSA Group cars has collapsed: only 5,000 cars produced in 2015, less than 4,000 in 2016 and less than 3,000 in 2017. At this rate, the production of PSA Group cars (Citroën C4 and Peugeot 408) could cease before 2020.

- Mitsubishi production, on the other hand, increased, up to 33,000 units in 2014, before falling to 14,000 in 2016 and less than 12,000 in 2017 (still four times more than PSA).

- In total, PSA has produced 135,000 cars since the construction of the Kaluga plant and Mitsubishi 115,000, which is very far from the capacity of the plant and the objectives of both manufacturers.

- Given that Mitsubishi has recently been bought by the Renault-Nissan group and that the links between PSA and Mitsubishi will be phased out over time (scheduled end of the collaboration in the field of electric cars and SUVs ), it is possible that the Kaluga plant would be abandoned by PSA and taken over by Mitsubishi (to concentrate on the manufacture of its SUV), or closed.


17-22-4   

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  1. Like Mercedes, BMW plans to build a factory in Russia
  2. The decline of diesel offset by a rise in gasoline in Europe
  3. Renault brand will sell hybrid vehicles
  4. The US market remains negative over the first nine months of 2017
 
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