Category Blog

詳細: 上で公開 2022年12月02日

European Passenger cars market has partially cached up its shortfall since fall 2022

- The European market (29 countries: EU+ UK + Norway + Sweden) for passenger cars (PC) recorded a decline in the first seven months of 2022 compared to the first seven months of 2021: -2.4% in January, -5.5% in February, -18.9% in March, -20.2% in April, -12.6% in May, -16.9% in June, -10.5% in July, with the total of the seven months recording a decline of 13.3% compared to the first seven months of 2021. The reason for this decline is said to be supply shortages that have forced carmakers to fill orders later than planned, resulting in delivery delays and longer lead times. These supply disruptions are said to be a result of semiconductor shortages in the market and the impact of the war in Ukraine on car wiring.

- Since August 2022, there has been a slight improvement in the situation: Car registrations increased by +3.4% in August, +7.9% in September and +14% in October. Since the end of the summer, a (partial) catching-up process has been evident, making it possible to limit the decline of the European market (29 countries) for passenger cars to -9.8% in the cumulative nine months of 2022 and -7.9% in the cumulative ten months of 2022.

- At this pace, the European market (29 countries) for passenger cars could end the year with a -4% decline in registrations.

- The most worrying point is light commercial vehicles, whose sales will slump by 2022 (-20.4% in the 10 months) and which currently have not really caught up (-21.9% in the 3 months, -23.9% in the 6 months, -20.9% in the 9 months). This decrease in light commercial vehicle sales could be related to the decline in economic activity in Europe, which has been observed since the beginning of the year and represents a real risk of recession according to the European Commission.

Contact us: info@inovev.com

詳細: 上で公開 2022年12月02日

Chinese passenger car market grows strongly in the first 10 months of 2022

- China records a strong increase in new car registrations in 2022, despite a rather weak economic growth at the moment (this year it is not expected to exceed 3-4%), due to the slowdown in Chinese and global demand (especially in China due to the "zero covid" policy and generally globally due to the war in Ukraine): +14.0% for the cumulative 10 months of 2022 compared to the cumulative 10 months of 2021, compared to +9.1% for the first quarter of 2022, +3.5% for the 2022 half year period, due to a disastrous April following the return of the Covid 19 crisis, and +14.4% for the 9 months period of 2022 thanks to a catch-up in June, July, August and September 2022.

- We are expecting for the end of the year a volume of 24 million passenger cars sold in China, which would be above the volume of 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021. However, this would still be below 2016 or 2017 levels (24.5 million passenger cars per year). The good health of the Chinese passenger car market is fueled by the sales boom in electric cars.

- However, there is a disconnection between passenger car and utility vehicle (UV) sales, as the Chinese commercial vehicle market will decline significantly in 2022 compared to 2021 (-32.0%), a year that already saw a 3.0% decline compared to 2020. The year is expected to end with a volume of 3.3 million UVs sold in China, down from 4.8 million units in 2021 and 5.1 million units in 2020.

- This decline in UVs sales is a good example of the decline in economic growth in China in 2022, as UVs sales are directly linked to a country's industrial and commercial activity. China is now talking about the risk of a global recession.

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詳細: 上で公開 2022年12月02日

The range of Renault will change completely

- Renault's model range will undergo major changes between 2023 and 2025. In 2023, the Scénic (C-segment minivan) and Espace (D-segment minivan) models will disappear, followed by the Twingo (A-segment sedan) and Zoé (B-segment sedan) in 2024. And the combustion-engine Mégane (C-segment sedan) seems doomed in the foreseeable future as the carmaker focuses on developing its all-electric E-Tech version to gradually replace it. The Talisman (D-segment sedan) has already been discontinued in 2022.

- The manufacturer's entire old model lineup will be replaced by the new battery electric R4 (B-segment SUV), R5 (B-segment sedan) and Scénic (C-segment SUV) models, scheduled for 2024-2025. This new model range was inaugurated in 2022 with the battery electric Mégane E-Tech and the new battery electric Kangoo E-Tech.

- In addition, the Clio with internal combustion engine (B-segment sedan) is scheduled to be replaced by a new generation with internal combustion engine in 2026, probably the last one.

- The Renault Captur (B-segment SUV) and Austral (C-segment SUV) are expected to continue with internal combustion engines for a few more years, but Renault will launch an electric-powered Captur in 2026, similar to the Peugeot 2008 (B-segment SUV), which is already available as an electric version. The Austral will also be converted to electric drive, like the future Peugeot 3008 (C-segment SUV), which will be available as an electric version from 2023.

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詳細: 上で公開 2022年12月02日

China is three years ahead of its BEV targets

- In November 2020, the Development Plan for New Energy Vehicles Industry (2021-2035) was published by the General Office of the State Council of the People's Republic of China. In this New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035), the following targets were set for 2025 and 2035.

- By 2025, China's BEV+PHEV market should become much more competitive, with major breakthroughs in key technologies such as traction batteries, engine and vehicle operating systems, and an overall improvement in safety standards. Average electricity consumption of new all-electric passenger cars needs to be reduced to 12 kWh/100 km (down from 15 kWh/100 km in 2020). BEV+PHEV sales should reach 20% of total new car sales (vs. 5% in 2020) and battery charging as well as replacement services should become more convenient.

- By 2035, the basic technology for BEV+PHEV in China should reach the international advanced level and the brand quality should have high international competitiveness. BEVs will account for the majority of new vehicles sold, public sector vehicles will be fully electrified, fuel cell vehicles will be widely marketed, and the network of charging and battery replacement services must be practical and efficient.

- Comment from Inovev: By 2022, BEVs alone already account for 20% of new passenger car sales, and BEV+PHEVs account for 26%. So China is three years ahead of its plan.

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詳細: 上で公開 2022年12月02日

Gigafactory projects in Europe canceled

- The automotive industry in Europe and in most Asian countries is moving towards electric mobility. As a result, numerous plans have been announced for the construction of "gigafactories" to manufacture batteries for electric cars. Inovev, in its recent studies, projected the future demand for rechargeable vehicles (BEV and PHEV) and therefore calculated the need for batteries. This demand was put in relation to the recent announcements of production capacities of current and future gigafactories. We concluded that the European battery industry will face an overcapacity in Europe of almost 50% in 2030 if all projects are realized (2022-21 analysis). We have already pointed out that questions arise about this future overcapacity. Already, some projects have been stopped, others postponed, and still others are still pending. In this analysis, we will list these recent changes and their impact on production capacity.

- Farasis: Chinese supplier Farasis was originally supposed to build a battery cell factory for Daimler with a capacity of up to 16 GW in Bitterfeld- Wolfen (Saxony-Anhalt, Germany). After the plans were postponed several times, Daimler decided to take over production itself. Since the contract with the city of Bitterfeld was terminated, but Farasis still owns the land, the question remains as to where and when production of Daimler's battery project will begin.

- Britishvolt: The company wanted to build a battery production plant with a capacity of up to 35 GWh in Northumberland (UK). However, it seems to be struggling with financial problems. So far, only the start of production has been postponed from 2023 to 2025. If the problems are not resolved, the project could even be abandoned. So far, only letters of intent have been issued by Aston Martin and Lotus to cooperate (annual volume of around 10,000 vehicles). It is difficult to imagine that such a project can be realized, even more so with volumes as low as those of the customers.

- Varta: Due to rising costs and delays in orders, German battery manufacturer Varta will stop implementing its plans for its 10 GWh factory in Nördlingen (Bavaria, Germany) and will not proceed until it has received firm commitments from its customers. However, an initial factory for volume production has yet to come on stream, as one automaker, likely Porsche, has already committed as a customer. The factory was originally scheduled to begin volume production in 2023. At present, it looks to Inovev as if the project will not be expanded further.