Volvo/Polestar and Jaguar/Land Rover models in the NAFTA zone 2022-2026
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Volvo/Polestar and Jaguar/Land Rover models in the NAFTA zone 2022-2026
- Volvo, the Swedish brand of the Chinese group Geely, will launch the facelifted XC40, S60 and V60 Cross Country models on the North American market before the end of 2022. In the second half of 2023, a large but as yet unnamed crossover is to appear there. In 2024, a re-designed S90 is scheduled to be marketed on the North American market. In 2025, Volvo plans to market an as-yet-unnamed electric midsize crossover as well as the redesigned S60 and V60 models in North America. Then in 2026, an as-yet-unnamed more compact electric crossover and the new XC40 and C40 models are scheduled to appear there.
- Polestar, a joint venture of Volvo and Geely, aims to release its new Model 3 in North America before the end of the first half of 2023. Models 4 and 5 should then follow in 2024. In 2026, Polestar could release a roadster in North America.
- Jaguar, owned by India's Tata Group, currently plans to release only two electric SUVs in North America in 2025.
- Landrover, also owned by the Tata Group, recently released the redesigned Range Rover Sport in North America. Then, in the second half of 2023, the Range Rover Evoque is scheduled to be redesigned. New electric versions of the Range Rover, Range Rover Sport and other as-yet-unknown PHEV and BEV models are then scheduled for release in North America in 2024. The Discovery is also to be redesigned. In 2025, an all-electric version of the Defender and a redesigned Discovery Sport could then hit the North American market.
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Production in Asia rises sharply in 9 months 2022
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Production in Asia rises sharply in 9 months 2022
- While production in Europe declined by 6% from January to September, global production continued to rise. In addition to the NAFTA region (USA, Mexico, Canada), whose production increased by 12% year-on-year, it is several Asian countries that are pulling up global production in 2022.
- China, despite its strict Covid 19 policy and related economic problems, produced over 1.3 million more vehicles in the first three quarters of 2022 than in 2021, an increase of 7.6%. Other Asian countries such as Malaysia (+67%), Iran (+62%), Uzbekistan (+41%), Indonesia (+33%), and Kazakhstan (+30%) show even more impressive production figures. It should be mentioned that production in some Asian countries is still at a low level and that these countries usually produce only for their respective regional markets, which, however, have enormous potential with a low level of motorization and a growing economic output.
- India is now the fourth largest country in terms of automotive production, with 4.5 million vehicles in nine months, an increase of 26%. With the new manufacturer VinFast in Vietnam, another Asian country could become an important production location.
The only Asian country whose production volume declined in the nine months to 2022 was Japan, down 3.3%. However, it remains the most important Asian production location after China. South Korea recorded a moderate increase of +4.5%.
The only Asian country whose production volume declined in the nine months to 2022 was Japan, down 3.3%. However, it remains the most important Asian production location after China. South Korea recorded a moderate increase of +4.5%.
- The Asian countries continue to benefit from strong consumer demand, appear to be less affected by logistical problems (as they have easier access to raw materials, especially those for the production of batteries, and to semiconductors), and the war in Ukraine and all its economic side effects appear to have less impact on Asia.
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Will the former Russian Renault plants be under Chinese control?
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Will the former Russian Renault plants be under Chinese control?
A) Moscow plant (former Avtoframos plant):
The Russian plant in Moscow, left by Renault in April 2022 following the war between Ukraine and Russia that began on February 24, 2022, took only six months to :
The Russian plant in Moscow, left by Renault in April 2022 following the war between Ukraine and Russia that began on February 24, 2022, took only six months to :
1. reach an agreement with a Chinese carmaker to produce a new model at this plant.
2. prepare the factory to produce this new model with the logo of a new brand to be created.
3. To revive the Moskvich brand, stopped in 2001, to name the new model.
4. to market the new model in Russia under the new brand.
5. to plan to sell 50,000 units per year, 10,000 of being battery electric.
B) Togliatti plant (Avtovaz plant):
Under these circumstances, it is quite conceivable that the Togliatti plant, which has stopped Renault production (Logan, Duster, Sandero, Largus) and will one day have to abandon Renault platforms for Lada models, will turn to a Chinese carmaker to rebuild the Lada range and launch new models with platforms and engines of Chinese origin. Inovev had pointed out a few months ago that today there was a real opportunity for a Chinese manufacturer to gain a foothold in Russia, both at Avtovaz (Togliatti) and Avtoframos (Moscow), as Renault had left the country in a hurry.
Under these circumstances, it is quite conceivable that the Togliatti plant, which has stopped Renault production (Logan, Duster, Sandero, Largus) and will one day have to abandon Renault platforms for Lada models, will turn to a Chinese carmaker to rebuild the Lada range and launch new models with platforms and engines of Chinese origin. Inovev had pointed out a few months ago that today there was a real opportunity for a Chinese manufacturer to gain a foothold in Russia, both at Avtovaz (Togliatti) and Avtoframos (Moscow), as Renault had left the country in a hurry.
C) In terms of sales in the Russian market, Chinese car sales already account for 15% of the Russian market in October 2022, up from 10% in the first ten months of 2022, 6.5% in 2021, and 3.5% in 2020. Chinese manufacturers were taking advantage of the market left empty by Europeans to increase their market share in Russia. At this point, this figure nevertheless remains to be put into perspective as the sales volumes of Chinese carmakers in 2022 are down compared to 2021 (50,000 units over 10 months 2022 against 90,000 in 2021).
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European production falls in 9 months 2022
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European production falls in 9 months 2022
- From January to September 2022, production in Europe decreased by 6% compared with the same period of the previous year, while global production increased by 6%. This decline corresponds to around 563,000 less vehicles produced. The decline in production was particularly sharp in Western Europe (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden), where it reached 7.6%, while in Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) it was only 1.4%. In the case of light utility vehicles (LUV), the decline in production was 17.6%, while European passenger car production declined by just under 5%.
- In Eastern Europe, production in Serbia (-66%) and Slovenia (-42%) in particular dropped sharply due to the end of the Fiat 500L (produced in Serbia) and the phasing out of the Smart Forfour (produced in Slovenia). The losses were offset by Romania, which was the only Eastern European country to record an increase (+23%) in production thanks to the production of the Dacia Jogger.
- In Western Europe, production decreased particularly sharply in Finland (-26%), Belgium (-26%) and Portugal (-23%) in the first nine months of 2022. But even major production locations such as Spain (-20%), Italy (-16%) and France (-14%) cannot offer the same production volume as in 2021. Germany is the only country in Western Europe to record a slight increase in production (+4.1%).
- Lower consumer demand, war in Ukraine and loss of several suppliers, problems with the supply of semiconductors, and inflation, which led to a 9.7% drop in demand in Europe in the nine months to 2022, are reasons why only two European countries are recording an increase in production, while production volumes are declining in all other countries.
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Global forecast of internal combustion engines in 2035
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Global forecast of internal combustion engines in 2035
Is there a possibility that cars with internal combustion engines will still be sold in large quantities after 2030 or even after 2035?
- It is likely that countries that do not comply with CO2 emission regulations will continue to produce or buy cars with internal combustion engines. For example, the BMW Group announces that half of the cars it will produce in 2030 will have internal combustion engines, which is an interesting indication of its strategy in terms of motorization.
- In which countries will they be marketed? Mainly to countries whose market is not yet mature. In 2021, emerging markets accounted for 25% of global sales, while mature countries (Europe, USA, China, Japan, South Korea) accounted for 75% of global sales, i.e. 3/4 of the 75 million vehicles sold worldwide (cars + trucks).
- Assuming that the global market in 2030 will be roughly the same as in 2021, about 20 million internal combustion vehicles will be sold in 2030 in countries with emerging markets with in addition about 30 million internal combustion vehicles in market mature countries, i.e. about 50 million vehicles.
- In 2035, the volume of internal combustion vehicles is expected to decline by about 20 million vehicles, as a ban on internal combustion engine vehicles will be applied in Europe at that time. If it takes longer than expected for electrification to take hold in mature countries, these volumes will be higher. So it is clear that there is still a future for internal combustion engine vehicles.
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