Japanese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- 詳細
Japanese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- The Japanese light vehicle market (PC+LUV) fell by 5.6% over the whole 2022 year compared to 2021. However, the monthly figures for this year 2022 highlight a recovery starting in the fall 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, the Japanese market increased by 15.4% compared to the first quarter of 2022.
- Passenger cars saw their sales increase by 16.7% in 2023, while light utility vehicles grew by only 8.9%. We are actually witnessing a sort of catch-up because the years 2021 and 2022 had been particularly poor, posting sales figures recorded in the mid-1970s…
- If the current rhythm of the Japanese market continues, the year should end with a 10% increase in light vehicle sales, representing a volume of 4.6 million units, compared to 4.2 million in 2022 and 4,4 million in 2021. The peak of registrations in Japan took place during the years 1989-1991 when 7 million units were exceeded annually. But that was over 30 years ago. The good news is that the sales increase in Japan in 2023 will be the first since 2018.
- By carmaker, we note that the Toyota brand maintains its first place in its historic market (49% of the market), well ahead of the K-car specialist, Suzuki (13% of the market) and its competitors Honda (12% of the market) and Nissan-Mitsubishi (12% of the market). Mazda and Subaru have fallen to a very low, almost confidential level, since these three brands no longer even manage to represent together 10% of the Japanese market.
The 2023 Shanghai Motor Show
- 詳細
The 2023 Shanghai Motor Show
- The Shanghai Motor Show opened from April 18 to 27, 2023,
this show being held alternately with the Beijing Motor Show which takes place in even years (also in April).
this show being held alternately with the Beijing Motor Show which takes place in even years (also in April).
- The Shanghai show has become one of the largest and most important auto shows,
in a context where the Chinese auto market has become the largest in the world. During the last edition in 2021, more than 1,000 exhibitors presented their products to 800,000 visitors. The last edition of the Paris Motor Show in 2022 was only able to attract 400,000 visitors. Carmakers and equipment suppliers are therefore impatiently awaiting the Shanghai show or high-tech shows such as the CES in Las Vegas to present major novelties.
in a context where the Chinese auto market has become the largest in the world. During the last edition in 2021, more than 1,000 exhibitors presented their products to 800,000 visitors. The last edition of the Paris Motor Show in 2022 was only able to attract 400,000 visitors. Carmakers and equipment suppliers are therefore impatiently awaiting the Shanghai show or high-tech shows such as the CES in Las Vegas to present major novelties.
- Chinese carmakers presented at the 2023 Shanghai Motor Show almost exclusively Plug-In models (Plug-In Vehicles: PIV= BEV+PHEV),
in a context where China has become the world's leading market for these vehicles. The reasons for the development of this market are a voluntarist government policy linked to the ecological necessity in the big Chinese cities and the will to take the markets through new technologies (conquest of the markets by technological jump). Vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) are finding it increasingly difficult to impose themselves on the Chinese market. This particularly affects German carmakers. In the first quarter of 2023, BEVs represent 22.5% of sales in China. Boosted by the growth in BEV sales, domestic Chinese carmakers (not in JV) represent 57% of sales in China in the first quarter of 2023 (BYD is very closed to Volkswagen group in sales), putting foreign carmakers, in particular German ones, in difficulty who occupy only 20% of the market compared to 24% in 2019.
in a context where China has become the world's leading market for these vehicles. The reasons for the development of this market are a voluntarist government policy linked to the ecological necessity in the big Chinese cities and the will to take the markets through new technologies (conquest of the markets by technological jump). Vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) are finding it increasingly difficult to impose themselves on the Chinese market. This particularly affects German carmakers. In the first quarter of 2023, BEVs represent 22.5% of sales in China. Boosted by the growth in BEV sales, domestic Chinese carmakers (not in JV) represent 57% of sales in China in the first quarter of 2023 (BYD is very closed to Volkswagen group in sales), putting foreign carmakers, in particular German ones, in difficulty who occupy only 20% of the market compared to 24% in 2019.
- The 2023 Shanghai Motor Show is rich in novelties, especially Chinese PIV (BEV and PHEV) novelties.
It is a demonstration of force which makes it possible to affirm that the Chinese domestic carmakers have a plan to increase their advance in terms of technology and, consequently, to increase their market share in China and even more generally in the world. Among the 16 outstanding novelties of the show, there are 12 Chinese cars including 9 battery electric (BEV) and 3 rechargeable hybrids (PHEV) and 4 foreign cars including 2 BEVs and 2 PHEVs.
It is a demonstration of force which makes it possible to affirm that the Chinese domestic carmakers have a plan to increase their advance in terms of technology and, consequently, to increase their market share in China and even more generally in the world. Among the 16 outstanding novelties of the show, there are 12 Chinese cars including 9 battery electric (BEV) and 3 rechargeable hybrids (PHEV) and 4 foreign cars including 2 BEVs and 2 PHEVs.
- The 2023 Shanghai Motor Show is a springboard for BEV exports to Europe.
The show reveals a problem for European carmakers, whose strategy is to build fewer cars, but at higher prices. Chinese automakers already have the know-how and political support to drive down the prices of their BEVs. BYD was thus able to present a battery electric vehicle marketed at less than €11,000, the Seagull. Tesla also announced its intention to lower its prices. This high-tech price war can be fatal for European carmakers, especially if it spreads to Europe. However, the ability to react of European carmakers and the European Union should not be underestimated. These have solid strengths. There is still time for them to adapt their strategies and take the necessary measures.
The show reveals a problem for European carmakers, whose strategy is to build fewer cars, but at higher prices. Chinese automakers already have the know-how and political support to drive down the prices of their BEVs. BYD was thus able to present a battery electric vehicle marketed at less than €11,000, the Seagull. Tesla also announced its intention to lower its prices. This high-tech price war can be fatal for European carmakers, especially if it spreads to Europe. However, the ability to react of European carmakers and the European Union should not be underestimated. These have solid strengths. There is still time for them to adapt their strategies and take the necessary measures.
- The photos of the 16 most important new models are presented in the following slide.
Among them, we note the presence of 9 SUVs, 5 sedans and 2 minivans. Among these 16 novelties, we note the presence of 2 small sedans (BYD Seagull, Wuling Bingo) which could meet with good success in Europe where the Smart Fortwo and Forfour have disappeared.
Among them, we note the presence of 9 SUVs, 5 sedans and 2 minivans. Among these 16 novelties, we note the presence of 2 small sedans (BYD Seagull, Wuling Bingo) which could meet with good success in Europe where the Smart Fortwo and Forfour have disappeared.
- The next major show planned is Munich, in Europe, at the beginning of September of this year 2023.
Inovev will carefully analyse the positioning of this show and the novelties that will be presented there.
Inovev will carefully analyse the positioning of this show and the novelties that will be presented there.
The share of BEVs by carmaker in Europe in 2022
- 詳細
The share of BEVs by carmaker in Europe in 2022
- Most carmakers established in Europe have announced that they intend to offer their entire range of passenger car models equipped with fully electric engines from 2030. Some brands have even announced that this range will be available from 2028 or even from 2025... However, Inovev's analyses show that sales of battery electric vehicles will very hardly be able to represent 100% of sales in Europe in 2030 or even in 2035.
- Admittedly, the European Commission's regulation for zero-emission cars are much tougher than those proposed by the Chinese, American or Japanese governments. But already, Germany seems to be deviating from the initial objectives by counting on e-fuels to continue for some time the production of cars with internal combustion engines.
- Inovev wanted to know where the carmakers are today, in terms of sales of electric cars, in relation to their objectives and in relation to the regulation of the European Commission.
- We note that in 2022 Tesla and the Chinese NIO, Xpeng, are already 100% battery electric vehicles. BYD is 50% BEV and 50% PHEV in China, but 100% in Europe. The Chinese GAC, SAIC, Chery, Dongfeng, Geely and Changan already achieve between 12% and 50% of their sales in electric vehicles. European carmakers make only 10% to 16% of their sales in electric vehicles. American and Japanese automakers achieve even lower scores, if we separate the figures of Wulingfrom the GM group. There are seven years left to reach the 2030 deadline and twelve years to reach the 2035 deadline. It will therefore be very difficult for carmakers to meet their objectives.
Ford's Valencia plant will stop the production of the Transit Connect
- 詳細
Ford's Valencia plant will stop the production of the Transit Connect
- Within the Ford utility models range in Europe, there are currently two Ford Transit Connect models (N1-2 segment): a first released in 2013 and based on a platform designed by Ford and a second, marketed in 2022 and based on a platform designed by VW (especially for the VW Caddy).
- Between 2002 and 2013, the first Ford Transit Connect (Ford design) was produced at the Turkish plant in Kocaeli. It was then produced in Spain (Valencia plant) when it was renewed in 2013. The second Ford Transit Connect (VW design) has been produced since 2022 in Poland at the VW plant in Poznan (alongside the VW Caddy).
- The Transit Connect was only marketed in Europe and Turkey until 2009. Since then, the model has been marketed both in Europe, Turkey and in the USA and Canada (with only a long wheelbase for these last two markets).
- Despite the launch of the new generation of the Transit Connect (VW design) intended only for the European and Turkish markets, Ford continued to produce the old version in Valencia for the American and Canadian markets. But sales of the model in these two markets have declined sharply, from 52,000 units in 2015 to 43,000 in 2016, 34,000 in 2017 and 25,000 in 2022.
- Ford once considered replacing the old model with a new Transit Connect designed and produced in North America. But given the low sales volumes of the model and the low potential of this segment, Ford simply decided to withdraw this model from the American and Canadian markets. Consequently, the Valencia plant will cease producing the older generation Transit Connect. It is the fourth model to be phased out since last year at this plant after the Ford Mondeo, Ford Galaxy and Ford S-Max.
The evolution of the average dimensions of vehicles produced in Europe
- 詳細
The evolution of the average dimensions of vehicles produced in Europe
- Like weight, which has increased overall in twenty years, the dimensions of cars produced in Europe have increased significantly between 2000 and 2022, the average length of these cars having increased from 4.16 m in 2000 to 4.36 m in 2022, which represents an increase of 20 centimeters in twenty-two years, or 1 centimeter per year.
- Growth was uninterrupted except for the year 2009 which had seen a revival in sales of small cars due to a system of scrapping bonuses which was intended to revive the automobile market which had then fallen to its lowest point. The trend of increasing dimensions resumed as early as 2010 and has not slowed down until today.
- The average width of cars produced in Europe has also increased between 2000 and 2022, going from 1.71 m in 2000 to 1.81 m in 2022, which represents an increase of 10 centimeters in twenty-two years, i.e. 0.5 centimeters per year.
- The average height of cars produced in Europe has also increased between 2000 and 2022, rising from 1.48 m in 2000 to 1.55 m in 2022, which represents an increase of 7 centimeters in twenty-two years, or 0.3 centimeter per year.
- The increase in the average height of cars produced in Europe is not so much due to sedans, which remains stable, but to SUVs, the proportion of which is much higher today than twenty years ago and has steadily improved since that time. However, the increase in the average height of cars in Europe has marked a slowdown over the past four years.