Renault's difficulties in the BEV market
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Renault's difficulties in the BEV market
- After having analyzed in a previous Auto-Analysis the difficulties of the Volkswagen group in the BEV market (771,000 sales or 8.3% of its global sales in 2023 while the objective was much higher), we can observe that other European carmakers are also experiencing the same difficulties.
- Thus, the Renault group only sold 146,500 BEVs worldwide in 2023, or 6.5% of its total sales. The Renault Mégane BEV did not achieve its sales targets (50,000 to 75,000 units per year), with less than 50,000 units sold last year.
- The Premium BMW and Mercedes groups performed much better than Renault or Volkswagen in 2023, with 15% of BEV sales for the first and 10% of BEV sales for the second. The Stellantis group, on the other hand, is experiencing a very low rate of BEV sales in 2023, with only 4.5% of its total sales last year.
- Regarding the Renault group, major BEV launches are planned for 2024-2025, such as the Renault 5 E-Tech, Renault 4 E-Tech, Renault Scénic E-Tech, Renault Trafic E-Tech, Dacia Spring EV facelifted. These future launches could boost the carmaker's BEV sales, when, current models such as the Mégane BEV, Kangoo BEV and Twingo BEV are not reaching the volumes we might expected and the Renault Master BEV sales are confidential. As for the Renault Zoé, it disappears from the catalog this year, its production being stopped at the end of March 2024, leading to the end of vehicle assembly at the Flins site, a factory created in 1952 for the Renault Frégate.
The market of BEV did not decline in Europe in January 2024
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The market of BEV did not decline in Europe in January 2024
- In January 2024, there were no declining sales of battery electric vehicles (BEV) in Europe 29 countries (EU - Malta + UK + Switzerland + Norway), as they reached a volume of 120,926 units compared to 93,551 units in January 2023 (representing an increase of 29.3% in a total market up 11.5%), with a market share of 11.9 % in January 2024 compared to 10.3% in January 2023 and 9.8% in January 2022.
- If there were no sales decline in January 2024, it was the case in December 2023 compared to December 2022: 205,980 units compared to 276,043 units, representing a market share of 19.7% compared to 24.9% in December 2022. However, it is to be noted that this market share was quite high compared to the annual average and that month of December 2022 was quite exceptional due to anticipated sales.
- In December 2023, the decline of BEV sales in Europe was only in Germany (-50,000 sales compared to December 2022) and Norway (-25,000 sales compared to December 2022) due to the end of the ecological bonuses in these two countries. The other European countries continued to see their BEV sales increase.
- January 2024 returned to a normal level as most countries saw their BEV sales increase, including Germany (+23.9%) and Norway (+281.3%). However, we must take into account the end of ecological bonuses in France for professionals which could disrupt the progression of BEV sales in 2024. On the other hand, the product offer announced at less than 30,000 euros is starting to arrive, with the marketing of the Citroën e-C3, restyled Dacia Spring and Renault R5 E-Tech.
The top 20 global carmakers in 2023 according to Western rankings: First Chinese (BYD) in 10th position
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The top 20 global carmakers in 2023 according to Western rankings: First Chinese (BYD) in 10th position
- In a global market of more than 82 million light vehicles (PC+LUV), the Toyota group (14% of global sales) remains the leading carmaker and consolidates its lead over the Volkswagen groups (11% of global sales) and Hyundai - Kia (9% of global sales).
- Behind, the Stellantis groups (8% of global sales) and GM (7% of global sales) are neck and neck. These two carmakers are ahead of Honda (5% of global sales) and Ford almost equally (5% of global sales). Behind, Nissan (4% of global sales) and Suzuki (4% of global sales) are also very close.
- BYD, which has made significant progress compared to other carmakers (4% of global sales), becomes the leading Chinese carmaker and the tenth global carmaker, ahead of another Chinese carmaker, Geely (3% of global sales).
- Followed, the German Premium carmakers BMW (3% of global sales) and Mercedes (3% of global sales) which are ahead of the French Renault group (3% of global sales).
- This classification is defined according to a “Western” perspective, meaning that vehicles produced in China in JVs are counted among “non-Chinese” carmakers. Another classification, with a “Chinese” perspective is available and in which these same vehicles are counted among Chinese carmakers.
The top 20 global carmakers in 2023 according to the Chinese ranking: First Chinese (SAIC) in 5th position
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The top 20 global carmakers in 2023 according to the Chinese ranking: First Chinese (SAIC) in 5th position
- If we include the production volume of non-Chinese cars produced by major Chinese assemblers (SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, BAIC, Changan), through joint venture companies, the ranking of the top 20 global carmakers is very different from the classification usually used by Western carmakers.
- Chinese carmakers are therefore logically more numerous in this classification: eight carmakers compared to six for the “Western” classification. In addition, Chinese carmakers have a better global ranking. SAIC is in 5th position, FAW in 8th position, BYD in 10th position, Geely in 12th position, GAC in 14th position, Changan in 15th position, Dongfeng in 16th position, Chery in 18th position. This is somewhat logical as China today represents a third of global automobile production.
- But the major assemblers saw their positions gradually crumble due to the drop in the production volume of non-Chinese cars in China (a consequence of their declining sales), and get closer to independent Chinese carmakers who have made significant progress.
- Thus, the production volume of SAIC (which assembles GM and most of Volkswagens vehicles) does not exceed 4.9 million vehicles in 2023 (including 1.3 million MG-Roewe) while BYD exceeded 3 million. units last year. In 2021, SAIC produced 5.3 million vehicles (including 1.1 million MG-Roewe) while BYD did not exceed 750 000 units. This antagonistic movement between large assemblers and independents is expected to continue over the coming years, with the decline in sales of non-Chinese cars brands in China expected to continue.
In 2023, the Renault Kangoo finally took over the Renault Express in Europe
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In 2023, the Renault Kangoo finally took over the Renault Express in Europe
- In August 2023, we wrote that the new Renault Kangoo was experiencing a difficult start of its commercial career, due to competition from Renault Express which doubled Renault's offering in the N1-1 segment light utility vehicle category.
- The Renault Express based on the old Dacia Dokker has the advantage of being marketed at a lower price than that of the Renault Kangoo which adopts the most modern platform and engines from the carmaker's current range, both in thermal and in battery electric version. According to our estimates, the Renault Kangoo has managed to gradually gain sales over the Renault Express from the summer of 2023.
- The sales gap between the two models of 422 units in January (in favor of Kangoo) last year increased to 3,045 in June, then 3,128 in October and 4,023 in November before falling to 3,533 in December.
- The overall assessment is that sales of the Renault Kangoo have not yet returned to their normal pace (69,000 sales in 2020), but they are constantly progressing. Sales in 2023 (59,000 sales) are in fact close to those of 2021 (63,000 sales) and are much higher than those of 2022 (40,000 sales). The most critical period was observed between June and November 2022.
- As for Renault Express sales, they are growing more slowly: 27,000 sales in 2022 and 33,000 sales in 2023. The combined sales of the two models, however, remain much lower than Inovev forecasts (275,000 units per year) even if we add Express sales outside Europe – as it does not even reach 150,000 units in 2023.