Qatar market reached a volume of 45,000 vehicles in 2022
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Qatar market reached a volume of 45,000 vehicles in 2022
- Qatar is a country located near Saudi Arabia, which has nearly 2.5 million inhabitants. The automobile market represents on average between 40,000 and 100,000 new vehicles each year. In 2022, it reached 45,000 units, compared to 41,823 in 2021 and 37,411 in 2020, a year marked by the Covid-19 crisis. The year 2022 returns to the level of years just before the Covid crisis, such as 2019 (45,344 sales) or 2018 (45,463 sales).
- However, this figure is still less than half of the previous peak of almost 100,000 units reached in 2015. Like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, Qatar's automobile market depends on fluctuating oil prices, since Qatar relies heavily on the production and sale of oil.
- The configuration of the market by brand has remained the same for several years, with a strong presence of Japanese brands, but the Chinese MG belonging to the SAIC group achieves an excellent 8th place in 2022 as in 2021.
- The best-selling model in 2022 was the Toyota Land Cruiser SUV, with 4,676 units (11.2% of the market) ahead of the Toyota Hilux pickup (2,240 units). Toyota places seven models in the Top 15 by model in 2022, which places the carmaker as the big leader of the Qatari market in 2022 (with 30.6% of the market).
Vehicle exports from Europe could fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024
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Vehicle exports from Europe could fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, the European automobile industry (EU + UK) exported nearly 4.4 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, the statistics include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles exported from European soil remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, just under 30% of new vehicles produced in Europe were exported.
- For many years, the USA has been the leading buyer of vehicles produced in Europe (mainly from Germany and the UK) with around 17% of European exports. China has been importing a constant level of vehicles for several years, between 400,000 and 480,000 units each year. Note that Ukraine imported a high volume of vehicles in 2022, but we can reasonably assume that these are mainly used vehicles.
- What are our forecasts for export from Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast a drop in exports which could reach a volume of 4.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 4.1 million units in 2024. Exports are therefore expected to fall by 6% between 2022 and 2024.
- This scenario of decreasing exports is explained by an increasingly strong regionalisation of markets (as opposed to globalization) and which is mainly reflected in the desire of major countries purchasing European vehicles to protect their local industries. This is the case of the USA, which has implemented for at least 3 years a policy favouring local production (at least in the NAFTA zone) and increasing barriers to entry into its territory. This is also the case for China, which has not revised its import taxes, but which thanks to the strong growth of battery electric vehicles (BEV), and in particular Chinese brands, is managing to regain hand in its local market. We can consider here that it is rather a technological barrier, since the vehicles currently produced in China by Chinese brands have more attractive products and more affordable prices than the vehicles offered by European brands and that the majority of European products exported to China remain thermal vehicles.
Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe 2024 production forecasts: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The world production volume of light vehicles (PC+LUV) increased by 9% over the 10-months of 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-month cumulative. For Europe, it increased by 10% over the 11-months 2023 and will probably increase by 10% over the 12-months.
- The PC+LUV production volume in Europe (EU + UK) will reach 14.36 million units in 2023, compared to 13 million in 2022, 13.1 million in 2021 and 13.4 million in 2020. Despite this improvement of production in 2023, due in particular to the delivery of orders not delivered in 2021 and 2022, the European production volume in 2023 remains very much lower than the recent years before Covid-19: 18.4 million units in 2017, 18 million in 2018 or 17.7 million in 2019.
- The production increase in 2023 does not predict an equivalent pace in 2024. Inovev is counting on a lower growth next year, with an order of magnitude between 1% and 5% due to orders completely delivered in 2023, a slow-growing automobile market and a low growth rate in sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to the end or decrease of subsidies in some major European markets, high vehicle prices and the lack of affordable products in smallsegments.
- The arrival of Chinese carmakers in Europe – in terms of production – may only take place in 2025 or even 2026, and therefore the year 2024 will not benefit from an additional production contribution. On the contrary, factories will run slow, like the Ford factories in Germany or the Vauxhall factories in England. The success of Chinese cars imported from China may have a negative impact on automobile production in Europe.
Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
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Vehicle imports in Europe could increase by 7% between 2022 and 2024
- In 2022, Europe (EU + UK + EFTA) imported nearly 3.1 million light vehicles (passenger and utility vehicles) according to ACEA and Eurostat. The ACEA statistics do not specify whether these are only new vehicles but according to the Inovev analysis, they include new and used vehicles. However, the vast majority of vehicles imported in Europe remain new vehicles. We can therefore estimate that in 2022, around 20% of new vehicles sold in Europe were imported.
- Unsurprisingly, and for several years, Turkey has been the leading vehicle supplier country for Europe as it represents around 20% of European imports. Follows China, which went from 10th rank among importers to 2nd in two years (2021 and 2022). With China, South Korea and Japan, Asia remains the leading region supplier of vehicles imported into Europe (44% of imports).
- What are our forecasts for import growth in Europe in 2023 and 2024? For these forecasts, Inovev systematically establishes 3 scenarios: a low, reference and high scenario. In our reference scenario, we forecast constant growth in imports which could reach a volume of 3.2 million light vehicles in 2023 and 3.3 million in 2024. Imports could therefore increase by +7% between 2022 and 2024.
- This growth scenario is mainly explained by the expected increase in imports of vehicles produced in China by Chinese brands, the vast majority of which being battery electric vehicles (BEV). This increase in imports from China is linked to the expected growth of the BEV market in Europe, as according to our scenario, around 40% of new light vehicles sold in Europe will be BEVs in 2030. This scenario also takes into account a policy of attractive price-product mix from Chinese carmakers (offering of affordable vehicles in B or even A segments) and a proposal from European carmakers always seeking added value rather than volume. However, after 2030, we cannot exclude a drop in imports, which will not necessarily be due to a policy of protection of European industry by the EU (which has more difficulty implementing it than in the USA for example), but by the possibility that Chinese carmakers could set up assembly factories (CKD or SKD) in Europe. The case of BYD is an example with the strong possibility of an assembly plant in Hungary.
Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
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Europe PC market forecasts 2024: Inovev expects lower growth in 2024
- The registrations volume in Europe (scope of the left graph below) of passenger cars (PCs) will probably reach 12.9 million units over the whole of 2023, representing an increase of 14% compared to 2022 (11.3 million units).
- This increase reflects a post-covid catch-up. But this catch-up remains very modest: 1.6 million additional vehicles sold in 2023 compared to 2022. However, taking the 2019 market as a reference (16 million vehicles), that is an additional 15 million vehicles should have been sold between 2021 et 2023 and not 1.6 million. The question is: will a higher catch-up take place in 2024 and 2025? The debate is open.
- What is certain is that the catch-up will not be massive. The “Covid” situation, which could have only been cyclical, was the basis of a structural change of fewer vehicle purchases. This trend has been amplified by the significant increase of the vehicles prices, whether thermal or electric. One question is: will the price of vehicles decrease, making it possible to reach a new target of customers currently discouraged by the necessary purchasing budget (and this budget risks further increasing through the reduction in subsidies). This could happen in 2 ways:
§ The launch onto the European market by European carmakers of smaller and more affordable vehicles.
§ The rise of Chinese imports.
- But the effects of such actions will only be weak in 2024, and could increase in the following years. We therefore anticipate growth in 2024 compared to 2023 of 1 to 5%.