Production of BEVs in France in 2030
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Production of BEVs in France in 2030
- Inovev forecasts that France could produce around 827,000 electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030. Apart from Mercedes, Opel (part of the Stellantis Group) and Nissan (part of the Renault-Nissan Group), it is exclusively French brands that will produce their BEVs in France. What is striking is that production is entirely concentrated in the north and east of France.
- Inovev sees by far the greatest potential for BEV production at Renault-Nissan's Douai plant, which, aside from the Nissan Micra, will likely produce BEVs only for Renault. Maubeuge could have the second largest production potential, as it is equipped to handle four brands and produce passenger cars and light trucks. The Stellantis plant near Sochaux, close to the border between France, Germany and Switzerland, is the third plant that Inovev believes can produce more than 100,000 BEVs. Mulhouse, Poissy, and Valenciennes (all Stellantis plants) can likely reach production of 47,000 to 55,000 BEVs in 2030. The Alpine plant (which is part of the Renault-Nissan group) is likely to increase production volume somewhat by 2030, as Renault wants to give the brand a special role in its reorganization and launch a battery electric SUV. However, as the sporty character is to be maintained, the sales market and thus the production volume will remain modest.
- With the current announcements, France will still be far behind the BEV production of Spain (1.5 million BEVs) and Germany (1.3 million BEVs) in 2030.
Chinese OEMs have 50% share of the Chinese passenger car market (11 Months 2022)
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Chinese OEMs have 50% share of the Chinese passenger car market (11 Months 2022)
- For the first time in thirty years, Chinese carmakers account for 50% of the Chinese passenger car market (calculated over the last 11 months of 2022). The growth of these carmakers has been constant since the 1990s, but with a first acceleration in 2005, when a large number of Chinese groups started up, and a second acceleration from 2021, when electric car sales in China boomed.
- We have seen that sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in China have predominantly benefited to Chinese carmakers (and BYD in particular), so the boom in sales of BEVs in China caused a boom in sales of Chinese cars as a whole.
- This is easily observed as the share of Chinese carmakers in China increased from 40% in 2020 to 45% in 2021, reaching 50% in 2022. In 2015 it was 40%, in 2016 42%, in 2017 43% and then decreased to 42% in 2018, 41% in 2019 and thus 40% in 2020.
- Today, Chinese groups are no longer in danger of falling back to 40% of the market, as their models are more competitive than before, especially in electric powertrains, even if Tesla manages to continue gaining strength. In addition, new Chinese brands have recently entered the market. At the same time, foreign carmakers are experiencing difficulties and some have even announced their imminent departure, a phenomenon which could accelerate if a policy of Chinese self-enclosure was on the agenda or if a military operation on Taiwan led to severe economic sanctions.
What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
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What could be the share of BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030 and 2035 in the world?
- In terms of global sales forecasts for BEVs and PHEVs in 2025, 2030, and 2035, the big questions are whether electrification will progress to the point where these vehicles hold an absolute majority share of their respective markets, as suggested by the governments of market-ready countries, and whether the share of BEVs and PHEVs sales will be equal in China, Europe, India, Japan, and the US.
- Inovev projects a global BEVs and PHEVs sales share of 33% in 2030 and 60% in 2035 (up from 17% in 2022).
- For 2022, the global market level will be close to 12 million BEVs and PHEVs, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 7 million vehicles, the U.S. 1 million, Europe 2.5 million, Japan 400 000, India 100 000, and the remaining regions 800 000.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global market of 18 million BEVs and PHEVs, including 10 million vehicles in China, 2 million in the U.S., 4.5 million in Europe, 700 000 in India, and 800 000 in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global market of 26 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 15 million vehicles in China, 4,5 million in the U.S., 7 million in Europe, 1.2 million in India, and 1.3 million in Japan. That leaves 1 million in the remaining regions.
- For 2035, Inovev projects a global market of 48 million BEVs and PHEVs , including 25 million vehicles in China, 9 million in the U.S., 10 million in Europe, 2 million in India, and 2 million in Japan. Rest 2 million in the other regions.
- These scenarios take into account that a large part of the customers accept the public decisions to electrife vehicles in Europe and US markets, but for instance, the targets of the European Commission are still not likely to be reached by 2035, but rather by 2040.
Tesla aims to produce 50,000 electric trucks per year
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Tesla aims to produce 50,000 electric trucks per year
- Tesla has started production of its fully electric truck called Semi at its Texas plant in Austin. It is the first time a carmaker has mass-produced a truck with such an engine. The downside to a fully electric truck is that you need a large-capacity battery to drive long distances with heavy loads without having to stop at a charging station. However, it is easier to install heavy batteries in a truck whose weight is already high and, more importantly, that can have large spaces to hold those batteries.
- For this reason, Tesla believes in the development of the battery electric truck market, even if other carmakers choose the hydrogen-powered fuel cell truck solution.
- Tesla argues that the truck carmakers that have ventured into the fully electric experiment have started from a diesel-powered truck and converted it to electric, while the Tesla truck is originally designed as an electric truck from the start. The stated range is 800 kilometers, compared to 400 kilometers for existing trucks that have been converted to electric drive.
- For Tesla, the advantage of an electric truck is its quietness, no pollution when driving the vehicle and the comfort. The carmaker expects 50,000 sales of its truck in 2024, which would represent 1.25% of global truck sales, as global production of trucks (vehicles over 3.5 tons) reaches a volume of about 4 million units each year, according to OICA (International Organization of Automobile carmakers).
What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
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What could the passenger car market be in 2025, 2030, and 2035?
- What will the global market levels be in 2025, 2030 and 2035? No one knows what the economy will look like in that time and whether the various governments' targets for vehicle electrification will be met. However, Inovev has established different scenarios to estimate the level of passenger car sales in the world during this period, focusing on five major markets: Europe, USA, China, India and Japan, with a reference scenario presented here below.
- For 2022, the level of the global car market will be around 70 million units, according to Inovev. China is expected to have 26.5 million vehicles, the U.S. 13.5 million, Europe 11.5 million, Japan 4.2 million and India 4 million.
- In 2025, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 76 million vehicles, including 28.5 million vehicles in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 5 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market (+2 Million vs. 2022), the Indian market (+1 Million vs. 2022) and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2030, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 79 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 12.5 million in Europe, 6 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Chinese market, the Indian market and the growing markets in Asia and South America.
- In 2035, Inovev forecasts a global passenger car market at 80 million vehicles, including 30 million in China, 13.5 million in the U.S., 11 million in Europe, 7 million in India and 4.2 million in Japan. The growth of the global market will be mainly due to the growth of the Indian market and the immature markets in Asia and South America.