Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year in 2026/2027 of the new Kia EV9
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Inovev forecasts 50,000 units per year in 2026/2027 of the new Kia EV9
- Kia (subsidiary of the Hyundai-Kia group) has just presented its new battery electric vehicle, the EV9, which is currently at the top of the carmaker EV range. The model comes in the form of a large SUV, 5.01 m long by 1.98 m wide and 1.76 m high, which can carry seven passengers in three rows of seats.
- The Kia EV9 retains certain features of vanishing MPVs, such as interior modularity (the second row of seats can rotate 180 degrees to face the third row). Paradoxically, the Kia EV9 is therefore closer to the first Renault Espace than the new Renault Espace, which is only a stretched version of the Austral. In addition, Kia offers electric motorization on this model (with a range of 540 km according to the WLTP cycle), while the new Renault Espace does not offer it. However, the future Peugeot 5008 (also capable of carrying seven passengers) will also be offered in a battery electric version from 2024.
- The Kia EV9 is based on the e-GMP platform dedicated to battery electric vehicles from the Hyundai-Kia group, which is already used by the Kia EV6, the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Hyundai Ioniq 6. The rear-wheel-drive (RWD) version of the EV9 is equipped with a 204 hp electric motor positioned on the rear axle. The EV9 with all-wheel drive (AWD) receives two electric motors for a combined power of 383 hp. The EV9 offers two lithium-ion battery packs with a capacity of 76 kWh or 100 kWh. The Kia EV9 will be produced at the Korean site in Gwangmyeong, at a level, according to Inovev forecasts, of 25,000 units per year at its launch and then 50,000 per year from 2026/2027.
In China, Chinese carmakers produce less for joint ventures
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In China, Chinese carmakers produce less for joint ventures
- Chinese carmakers produced 27 million vehicles (PC+LUV) in 2022, compared to 26 million in 2021. Within this production, production under license via J.V. represented 12 million vehicles in 2022 (44% of the Chinese carmakers production), compared to 14 million in 2021 (54%). Production in China therefore increased by one million vehicles in 2022, but J.V. production fell by two million units.
- The major producers like SAIC or FAW were the first to be impacted by this trend, which - on the contrary - favoured independent carmakers, such as BYD or the new producers of electric cars.
- Geely maintains its position as the world's leading independent Chinese carmaker thanks to its control of Volvo and Proton. BYD is the first independent Chinese carmaker in China, but the second independent Chinese globally. By including production under license via J.V. the classification is completely different:
1. SAIC is the leading Chinese carmaker, with 4.9 million vehicles produced, including 3.8 million in JV.
2. FAW is the second, with 3.2 million vehicles produced, including 2.6 million in JV.
3. DFM, the third, with 2.8 million vehicles produced, including 1.9 million in JV.
4. GAC, the fourth, with 2.4 million vehicles produced, including 1.7 million JV.
5. Geely, the fifth, with 2.3 million vehicles produced, none of which in JV.
6. Changan, the sixth, with 2.1 million vehicles produced, including 400,000 in JV.
7. BYD is the seventh, with 1.9 million vehicles produced, none of which in JV.
Passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine type in 2022
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Passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine type in 2022
- Inovev compared the distribution of passenger car sales in Europe and China by engine in 2021 and 2022, as light utility vehicles still being mostly delivered with diesel engines (but these should nevertheless change by 2035).
- In Europe, in 2022, thermal engines (petrol, diesel and MHEV) represent 69% of passenger cars sales compared to 74% in 2021. Petrol engines alone represent 38% of sales (41% in 2021 and 49% in 2020). The decline is continuous and benefits mild-hybrids (MHEV) from 15% in 2021 to 16% in 2022. Diesel engines continue to see their market share decrease: 15% in 2022 against 18% in 2021 and 27% in 2020. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) increase from 11% in 2021 to 14% in 2022, full-hybrids (HEV) from 6% in 2021 to 8% in 2022. Only plug-in hybrids (PHEV) remain stable at 9%.
- In China, thermal engines (petrol, diesel and MHEV) represent 69% of passenger cars sales (as in Europe) against 82% in 2021. Petrol engines represent the vast majority of thermal engines, however our sources do not specify the share of MHEVs.
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are growing strongly – more than in Europe – with a market share of 21% in 2022 compared to 13% in 2021 and 5% in 2020. Hybrids only represent a very small share of the market Chinese, i.e. 10% including 7% for plug-in hybrids (PHEV), 3% for full-hybrids (HEV).
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are growing strongly – more than in Europe – with a market share of 21% in 2022 compared to 13% in 2021 and 5% in 2020. Hybrids only represent a very small share of the market Chinese, i.e. 10% including 7% for plug-in hybrids (PHEV), 3% for full-hybrids (HEV).
Sales decline of joint ventures in China over the 2 months of 2023
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Sales decline of joint ventures in China over the 2 months of 2023
- Over the first two months of 2023, the Chinese passenger car market fell by 15% compared to the first two months of 2022. However, it is above all the month of January (with the holiday period in particular) which has impacted sales at the beginning of the year (-33% compared to January 2022) while the month of February was positive (+11% compared to the same month last year).
- Inovev observes a disparity between the performance of Chinese carmakers and foreign carmakers who produce in China. The latter suffer significant falls (often greater than 30%) while Chinese carmakers often show significant increases (the Chinese leader BYD is up 77%) or more modest increases but necessarily higher than the overall decline in the market. A few exceptions, however, such as Dongfeng
(-47.6%), FAW (-37.8%) or Great Wall (-36.2%).
(-47.6%), FAW (-37.8%) or Great Wall (-36.2%).
- For foreign carmakers, two of them are managing to progress: Tesla (+20.7%) and Mercedes (+20.4%) thanks to its subsidiary Smart which produces new battery electric models in China from January 2023.
- More generally, foreign carmakers fell by 29% on average over the first two months of 2023, while Chinese carmakers grew by 2% on average in a market at -15%. As a result, the market share of Chinese carmakers continued to grow in China in January and February 2023, to 53% against 43% in January-February 2022. This share was 50% in December 2022. The collateral victims of this situation were the Chinese carmakers who build vehicles in joint ventures, such as SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, GAC or Changan. There is therefore a risk that in the long term these carmakers will fall to the level of independent Chinese carmakers, in terms of production volume.
Sales by segments in Europe and China in 2022: all engines
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Sales by segments in Europe and China in 2022: all engines
- Inovev compared the segmentation of passenger cars (PCs) sold in Europe and China in 2021 and 2022.
- The A-segment is becoming very marginal, both in Europe and in China. In Europe, it goes from 7% of the market in 2021 to 6% in 2022. Small cars are becoming increasingly rare. In China, the A-segment is growing from 4% of the market in 2021 to 5% in 2022. Unlike India, China is not a small car market.
- The B-segment is one of the largest in Europe, with 36% of market share in 2021 and 35% in 2022. In China, it is very marginal, with 3% of Chinese passenger cars sales in 2021 and 3% in 2022.
- The C-segment is, with the B-segment, one of the most important in Europe, with 36% of European PCs sales in 2021 and 37% in 2022. In China, it is also one of the most important, with 42% of Chinese PCs sales in 2021 and 41% in 2022.
- The D-segment is not very important in Europe, with 15% of European PCs sales in 2021 and 16% in 2022. On the other hand, in China, it is the most important segment, with 47% of Chinese PCs sales in 2021 and 46% in 2022.
- The C and D segments together represent 53% of sales in Europe, while they represent 87% of sales in China. Europe is a B-C segment car market (72% of total sales), while China is a C-D segment car market.
- The E-segment is very weak in Europe (6% of total sales in 2021 and in 2022) and in China (4% of total sales in 2021 and 5% in 2022). Regarding the F-segment, it accounts for less than 1% of total sales in Europe and China.
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