Where BEVs sold in Europe in 2022 are coming from?
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Where BEVs sold in Europe in 2022 are coming from?
- Of the 1,575,000 battery electric passenger cars (BEV) sold in Europe in 2022 (European Union + UK + Norway + Switzerland), how many come from Europe and abroad?
§ 1,070,000 BEVs come from European factories (including 350,000 from the Volkswagen group, 250,000 from the Stellantis group, 125,000 from the Renault-Nissan group, 102,000 from the BMW group, 98,000 from the Mercedes group, 44,000 from Volvo, 42,000 from the Hyundai-Kia group, 41,000 from Tesla). This volume represents 68% of BEV sales in Europe.
§ 300,000 BEVs come from Chinese factories, including 100 000 from Chinese local carmakers and 200 000 from producers of the Dacia Spring, BMW iX3 and a large number of Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y.
§ 110,000 BEVs come from Korean factories (mainly Hyundai-Kia).
§ 75,000 BEVs come from US factories (mainly Tesla).
§ 20,000 BEV come from Japanese factories.
- The share of BEV imports in Europe, which represents 32% of total BEV sales, is higher than the share of BEV imports in China and the USA, these two countries being supplied almost exclusively by their local factories.
EU market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
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EU market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- The Europe market (29 countries = European Union + UK + Norway + Switzerland) for light vehicles (PC+LUV) fell by 4% over the whole 2022 year compared to 2021. However, the monthly figures for this year 2022 highlight a recovery starting in autumn 2022 (17.5% increase in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the last quarter of 2022). This recovery continued in early 2023. In the first quarter of 2023, the European market recorded an increase of 17.6% from the first quarter of 2022. The trend of this growth is expected to decelerate in the coming months, according to Inovev.
- The registration figures for the first quarter of 2023 show that we are returning to the level of volumes recorded in 2021, which had seen registrations reach 11.8 million units against 11.3 million in 2022 (+4.5%). But we will still be far from the figures reached before the Covid: 15.6 million units in 2018 or 15.8 million units in 2019. In the first quarter of 2023, SUVs represented 48% of the European passenger car market.
- The Volkswagen group remains the European market leader with a 25% market share, ahead of the Stellantis groups (18%), Renault-Nissan (12%), Hyundai-Kia (9%) and Toyota (7%). Next are the German Premium carmakers, BMW (6%) and Mercedes (6%). Behind, we note the presence of the American carmakers Ford (4%) and Tesla (3%) which are ahead of the Chinese carmakers (2%) and Volvo (2%), which is part of the Chinese group Geely.
- Registration figures for light utility vehicles are not yet known for this period, but they should also show a real improvement compared to the previous three years which had been frankly poor.
Chinese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
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Chinese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- The Chinese light vehicle market (PC+LUV) recorded an increase of 2.2% over the whole 2022 year compared to 2021. However, the monthly figures for this year 2022 show strong growth from in the second half of 2022. Although the market plunged in January 2023, the Chinese market resumed its regular rhythm the following month. In the first quarter of 2023, the Chinese market is still down 6.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Despite this negative balance for the quarter, the coming months should follow the trend of March 2023.
- Inovev therefore expects a 4.5% to 5% increase in sales in China over the whole year, representing a volume of 28 to 28.2 million units, a figure lower than what we saw in 2017, which marked a peak in sales, with 28.9 million units.
- Passenger cars saw their sales decline by 7.2% in the first half of 2023, while light utility vehicles saw theirs fall by 2.7%. LUV sales had fallen significantly since 2020, far more than passenger car sales. In the first quarter of 2023, SUVs represented 46% of the Chinese light vehicles market, sedans 40%, MPVs 4% and LUVs 10%.
- By carmaker, the VW group remains the Chinese market leader (10% of the market), but it is now closely followed by BYD (9% of the market) and Changan (8% of the market). The GM group is only third (6% of the market), itself closely followed by Geely (6%) and Toyota (6%). Chinese brands represent 57% of the Chinese PC+LUV market, which is an absolute record since the arrival of foreign carmakers on the Chinese market in the early 1990s.
Russian market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
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Russian market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- The Russian market for light vehicles (PC+LUV) began to collapse from March 2022, just after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. It fell from an average of 140,000 units every month (figures for the last quarter of 2021 and January 2022) to less than 40,000 units in March 2022. It then stabilized at a low level (around 40,000 monthly units). It results to drop of 58.8% over the whole 2022 year compared to 2021. In the first quarter of 2023 the figures remain similar to the last quarter of 2022 (which translates into a drop of 58.7% compared to the first quarter of 2022). From April to December 2023 the registration figures will probably be comparable to the registration figures recorded between April 2022 and December 2022 (around 40,000 - 50,000 units per month).
- The market collapse is mainly due to the exodus of European, American, Japanese and then Korean carmakers. Russian carmakers (AvtoVAZ, GAZ, UAZ) held up quite well despite the economic sanctions that could have be impacted the production of components from abroad.
- The new fact is that it is the Chinese carmakers who have rushed into the breach, replacing European, American, Japanese and then Korean carmakers at short notice. Chinese carmakers have thus managed to take 42% of the Russian market in the first quarter of 2023, against less than 10% in the first quarter of 2022. They even progress in volumes in a much smaller market. They now represent a sales volume equivalent to AvtoVAZ, the traditionally most popular brand in Russia, i.e. 64,432 units in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 24,734 units in Q1-2022 and 18 981 in Q1-2021.
Japanese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
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Japanese market evolution in Q1-2023 (PC+LUV)
- The Japanese light vehicle market (PC+LUV) fell by 5.6% over the whole 2022 year compared to 2021. However, the monthly figures for this year 2022 highlight a recovery starting in the fall 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, the Japanese market increased by 15.4% compared to the first quarter of 2022.
- Passenger cars saw their sales increase by 16.7% in 2023, while light utility vehicles grew by only 8.9%. We are actually witnessing a sort of catch-up because the years 2021 and 2022 had been particularly poor, posting sales figures recorded in the mid-1970s…
- If the current rhythm of the Japanese market continues, the year should end with a 10% increase in light vehicle sales, representing a volume of 4.6 million units, compared to 4.2 million in 2022 and 4,4 million in 2021. The peak of registrations in Japan took place during the years 1989-1991 when 7 million units were exceeded annually. But that was over 30 years ago. The good news is that the sales increase in Japan in 2023 will be the first since 2018.
- By carmaker, we note that the Toyota brand maintains its first place in its historic market (49% of the market), well ahead of the K-car specialist, Suzuki (13% of the market) and its competitors Honda (12% of the market) and Nissan-Mitsubishi (12% of the market). Mazda and Subaru have fallen to a very low, almost confidential level, since these three brands no longer even manage to represent together 10% of the Japanese market.
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