World market fell 25.0% in the first quarter of 2020
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- The global automotive market for passenger cars declined 40.8% in March 2020, compared with March 2019, and 28.3% in the quarter. For its part, the global automotive market for commercial vehicles declined by 35.1% in March 2020, compared to March 2019, and by 16.6% in the quarter.
- Overall, the global automotive market for passenger cars and utility vehicles declined 39.2% in March 2020, compared with March 2019, and 25.0% in the quarter.
- This collapse is the largest observed since the end of the Second World War.
- The decline in the markets was general, since all the countries saw the volume of their registrations fall sharply, except Turkey (+ 44.8%) which had collapsed in recent years and which effected a partial catch-up.
- Over the quarter, China declined 45.4%, Europe 26.3%, the United States 11.1% and Japan 10.0%. These four main markets saw their market collapse at different times, since the coronavirus crisis started in China, then moved to Europe, then to the United States, and finally to Japan, reached in latest.
- Over the same period, we note Russia at -2.8%, Korea at -8.3%, Brazil at -9.2%, Mexico at -10.6%, Australia at -12.0 %, South Africa at -12.9%, Canada at -19.1%, India at -22.1% and Argentina at -38.3%.
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Towards a gradual return to normal?
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- In a recent analysis, Inovev predicted a 15% to 45% decline in the European market in 2020, given the coronavirus crisis that caused the temporary closure of factories and car dealerships, and given a demand that will not may not immediately return to pre-crisis levels. The post-crisis may indeed be handicapped by the drop in purchasing power of potential customers, resulting from technical or partial unemployment, the prolonged closure of certain businesses, the cessation of activity in certain sectors, the decline in revenues of certain companies and the lack of confidence in the future, the purchase of an automobile is not considered a priority purchase or a necessity.
- On the other hand, we can put forward the possibility of partially catching up on purchases of banned cars for one or two months of the year, or even of a desire to flee public transport to focus on individual transport. small and why not electric, like the Citroën AMI, by betting on a long-term rental purchase.
- Under these conditions, it is very difficult to predict what will be the post-crisis, because contradictory elements will collide and we are not sure that the coronavirus crisis will not come back in the second half of 2020 or not.
- Already, some manufacturers have announced the next reopening of their factories in Europe.
- Globally, Inovev expects a 25% drop in sales and production over the whole year, representing a volume of 56 million passenger cars, compared to 75 million in 2019, 79 million in 2018 and 81 million in 2017.
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Geely maintains 2020 targets despite Covid-19
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- Geely, China's largest automaker and the thirteenth automaker in the world, projects sales in China to increase by 3.5% in 2020 to 1.41 million units, despite the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, said the company president.
- With its subsidiary Volvo, the Chinese group should approach 2 million vehicles sold worldwide in 2020. It is less than in 2019, but the Volvo brand must face the fall of the markets in Europe and the United States. , a fall that will be much greater than that recorded in China where Geely is very present and Volvo little present.
- In the first quarter of 2020, Geely is the only manufacturer to see its sales increase in China, while the Chinese market fell by 45.4% proof that the first Chinese manufacturer has an appropriate range and that its factories have not have been affected by coronavirus. In any case, this result of Geely in China is spectacular and suggests that the Geely group could take some places globally this year, as many other manufacturers will see their sales drop by 25% to 30% in 2020 , due to the coronavirus crisis.
- Formerly located in production volume at the same level as its competitor Chery, Geely now produces three times more than him, and this gap will increase further in 2020, thanks to a rational and coherent range policy, and thanks to its various acquisitions (Volvo, Lotus, Smart) and holdings (Daimler, Proton) which underpin its reputation.
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Renault brand withdraws from Chinese market
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- Arriving in China in 2016, well after its main competitors, Renault had negotiated an agreement with Dongfeng to manufacture in Wuhan and market SUVs in the country, namely the Captur, Kadjar and Koléos. The objectives were ambitious since the two partners were talking about a sales volume of 550,000 units in 2022, or one third of the volume of Nissan recorded at the same time. To achieve this objective, Dongfeng provided Renault with a JV factory capable of manufacturing 300,000 cars per year in Wuhan, a capacity which was expected to be doubled in 2020. Renault, for its part, planned to install 400 points of sale in the region. 'interval (only a hundred has emerged).
- Renault sales could never exceed 9,000 units per month (this level was reached at the end of 2017), or 74,730 units over the whole of 2017 (compared to 32,835 units in 2016). In 2018, sales fell to 47,769 units and in 2019 they collapsed to 16,603 units. In the first quarter of 2020, sales fell again by 55%. The logical decision to withdraw the Renault brand from the Chinese market was therefore taken in April 2020.
- However, Renault considers that it can still be present in the category of electric cars (under the Nissan brand) and utilities (under the Jinbei-Huasong brands) but there is very little chance that it will be able to prevail on this market, given the numerous and better armed competition. In 2019, Renault sold 157,625 commercial vehicles under the Jinbei-Huasong brands, and 3,207 K-ZE electric cars.
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Alfa-Romeo will stop production of Giulietta before the end of the year
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- Alfa Romeo will stop production of its C segment sedan, the Giulietta, by the end of 2020. According to the manufacturer, the hatchback will be replaced in the Alfa-Romeo range by the C segment SUV Tonale , expected in 2021. It is strange to replace a sedan with an SUV, but it is true that in the case of Alfa-Romeo, investments have been lacking for years on the part of the FCA group. The 2010 Giulietta sedan saw its replacement postponed several times while an SUV of the same segment was being studied, following the success of the Stelvio. Finally, the SUV Tonale killed the replacement for the Giulietta, while in the D segment, the Giulia cohabits with the Stelvio.
- This planned deletion of the Giulietta follows that of the 4C in 2019 and that of the Mito in 2018. It should be added that the project of the Alfetta sedan (segment E) was abandoned before being industrialized and that the SUV of segment E (based on the Maserati Levante) has been carried over to the Greek calendars. Suddenly, the Alfa-Romeo range will be reduced in 2021 to the minimum, since it will be composed of only three models: the Giulia, the Stelvio and the Tonale.
- The PSA group, which will have to merge with the brands of the FCA group, will have a lot to do to completely rebuild the Alfa-Romeo range. This brand has been steadily losing ground since the early 2000s, due to calamitous management, despite a slight upheaval in 2018 due to the relative and brief success of the Stelvio. Sergio Marchionne's extravagant goals for this brand were completely missed. The greatest caution is therefore imperative for the future.
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