- The European automobile market for passenger cars (29 countries) fell 39% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. The decline increased in April compared to March, due to the containment of the more people in April than in March, and more factories and concessions closed in April than in March.

- The decrease in April reached -78.3% against -51.9% in March and -7.1% in February. With the unlock carried out in mid-May and the gradual reopening of factories and concessions, we can expect a less significant drop in May, of the order of -50% and a small recovery in June, so good that the first half of 2020 should end with a market down by around -33%.

- To achieve a decline of -25% over the whole year, it would be necessary to count on a European market of -15% in the second half, which does not seem unattainable.

- By manufacturer, there are from the least impacted to the most impacted: Toyota Group (-27.0%), BMW Group (-29.6%), Geely Group (-31.0%), Volkswagen Group (-33.2%) ) Hyundai-Kia Group (-33.9%), Tata Group (-36.0%), Daimler Group (-40.0%), Renault-Nissan Group (-44.7%), PSA Group (-45 , 8%), Ford Group (-47.4%), FCA Group (-47.9%). We note that the manufacturers most impacted are those who sell the most in the European countries most affected by the coronavirus, namely Italy (FCA), Spain (Renault and PSA), France (Renault and PSA) and Great Britain (Ford). But independent Japanese manufacturers are doing even worse: Honda (-50.6%), Suzuki (-51.3%), Mazda (-52.7%) and Subaru (-58.2%).

- The American automobile market (USA) for passenger cars and light trucks (considered as passenger cars in Europe and China) fell by 20% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the same period of 2019.

- Still positive in February 2020 (+ 10.3%), because not yet affected by the coronavirus crisis, this market turned red in March 2020 (-36.9%) and this phenomenon has increased in April (-46.1%) without reaching the catastrophic figures recorded in Europe, which could mean that the containment of the population was not as hard as in Europe, that the closings of factories and concessions did not not as long, and that part of the population continued to buy cars on the Internet.

- One wonders, moreover, whether the Internet sales system could not be generalized during this new decade which begins, because it is a system which does not need the intermediary of the concessions. This is the system used by Tesla whose sales are growing rapidly (62,400 sales in the USA in the first quarter of 2020, or as much as BMW).

- Who are the manufacturers most affected during this Covid-19 crisis in the United States?

- The patriotic reflex played to a certain extent, since Tesla saw its sales double and the declines in GM (-16.0%), Ford (-18.8%) and Chrysler (-19.9%) were less than the decline in the market as a whole, but we also note the good performance of the Korean group Hyundai-Kia (-14.5%) which achieves a much better performance than the Japanese, German and British groups.

- The year is expected to end with a 10% to 15% drop in the U.S. market in 2020.

- European car production (VP + LCV) fell 36.2% in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter of 2019, with a volume of 4.58 million units (compared to 7.19 million the previous year) . The fall has been amplified since March 2020, the date of the start of the containment of the population and the closure of most factories and car dealerships, since it had reached -3% in February, -49% in March and -78 % in April.

- In May, many factories started to restart, but not at their usual pace and rather around the middle of the month. We can therefore count on a drop of almost 50% in May (the same level as in March) and June should start to see a recovery in European production, if demand is still present. It should be present because European governments will do their utmost to revive the activity of the sector, and manufacturers on their side will encourage consumption, thanks in particular to price cuts (to sell stocks), free credits and payment deferrals to 2021 (this has already been happening since the end of May for most manufacturers).

- The objective of limiting the drop in European production to 25% for the whole year is therefore not unrealistic, since over the four months among the worst of the year, we are at -36.2 % and we will undoubtedly be at -38% on the cumulative of the first five months (using a scenario at -50% in May). We should finish the first half at -33%. To end the year at -25%, we should therefore expect a decrease of 15% at most in the second half of 2020, if we take into account the volumes recorded in 2019.

- US auto production of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (USA) fell 30.7% in the first quarter of 2020, compared to the first quarter of 2019 which had already decreased by 5.3% compared to the first quarter of 2018. The month of April was catastrophic, since the production volume did not exceed 2,000 units, a figure never reached since the Second World War.

- It is true that all assembly plants were shutdown in April in the United States because of the coronavirus crisis, which has also created an explosion in unemployment in the country (the rate is increased from 5% to 15% in one month).

- To avoid sclerosing the entire US economy, the Trump government has encouraged the deconfinement and restart of factories. Most decided to resume production in May, but at a slower than normal rate.

- However, the restart of the factories should accelerate, as demand remains strong, with 710,000 sales in April (despite the factories closed), these sales coming mainly from stocks from assembly factories not only from the United States, but also from Canada and Mexico which also closed their factories in April, and also from Japan and Europe.

- It will therefore be necessary to replenish stocks in order to be able to meet demand for the coming months, even if it is still not very optimal. If demand increases in the second half of 2020, the car factories will expand their activity and the number of unemployed should decrease, which will help the economy to recover. In summary, American production is not expected to drop too sharply in 2020, in the range of 10% to 15%.