Imports into China have resumed vigorously since October 2020
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Imports into China have resumed vigorously since October 2020
- In 2019, China had imported 1,111,811 vehicles, including 529,832 units from Europe (48% of imports), 300,244 units from the United States (27% of imports) and 207,857 units from Japan (19% of imports). Vehicles imported from Europe are mainly premium brand cars which are not all produced in China. Vehicles imported from the USA and Japan are mainly cars from mainstream manufacturers.
- In 2020, vehicle imports to China fell significantly due to the coronavirus crisis which weakened demand and supply. They fell 22% over the first ten months of the year, to 714,000 units against 919,000 over the same period of the previous year, while the Chinese market fell by 10% overall. This sharp drop in imports into China was one of the causes of the decline in automobile production in Europe and the United States (but not the only one).
- Since the beginning of the autumn, we have witnessed a resumption of automotive imports in China (+ 64% in October, to 95,000 units) which foreshadows a larger than normal volume of imports in November and December 2020, which could help European automobile production to restart a little more clearly than at present.
- The year 2020 should thus total a volume of around 945,000 imports into China, which would represent a drop of 15% compared to 2019. The year 2021 should total a volume of over one million and return to the levels reached in recent years (between 2016 and 2019).
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Ssangyong declares bankruptcy
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Ssangyong declares bankruptcy
- Korean SUV manufacturer Ssangyong has failed to grow under Indian Mahindra rule despite skyrocketing sales of SUVs around the world.
- Ssangyong has failed to adapt its supply to global demand, possibly due to lack of funds. Ssangyong’s funds have shrunk considerably in recent years, since the Korean has suffered significant losses since 2017. its loans from foreign banks will not be reimbursed (we are talking about 122 million euros in debt). Suddenly, its owner Mahindra announced that he could not help Ssangyong under the current circumstances and accepted the Korean's request to go into receivership for lack of being able to repay his debts.
- The manufacturer's product offering has always seemed out of step with the other carmakers, especially in terms of design, which is rather controversial. Boldness didn’t pay off. Ssangyong's production has sailed between 100,000 and 150,000 vehicles per year since 2011.
- This is the third time that the manufacturer has found itself in great difficulty, the first being when GM had bought Daewoo in 2001 (owner of Ssangyong since 1998) and had left the manufacturer to its doom, the second being when SAIC which had bought Ssangyong in 2004 separated from it in 2009 due to the Korean's first bankruptcy. In 2011, Ssangyong was taken over by the Indian Mahindra who is now separating due to the Korean’s second bankruptcy. It is unfortunate that no component sharing or real rationalization has been decided at Mahindra to sustain the Ssangyong business.
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European market forecast 2021-2025
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European market forecast 2021-2025
- At the onset of the coronavirus crisis in Europe, Inovev had its forecast for the European market for 2020 and 2021 to adjust to new market circumstances. Thus, three scenarios had been constructed. The first (optimistic) reported a 25% decline in the European market over the year as a whole, the second (conservative) reported a 32% decline, the third (pessimistic) a 38% decline.
- Taking into account the 26.1% drop in the European passenger car market observed over the cumulative first 11 months of 2020 and the 19.3% drop in the European light commercial vehicle market over the same period, the decrease concerning light vehicles (PC + LCV) is 25.3% over the first eleven 11 months.
- We can therefore expect a fall in the European market close to 25% over the cumulative 12 months of 2020, therefore close to Inovev forecasts of the optimistic scenario. However, this result will be significantly worse than the result of the world market (-15%) as a whole. The volume of European registrations will therefore represent around 13.8 million units in 2020, compared to 18.4 million units in 2019 and 18.3 million in 2018.
- From 2021, Inovev forecasts a slow and gradual restart of the European market, which should grow by around 9% in 2021 to 15.1 million vehicles, from 3% in 2022 to 15.5 million units, from 2, 7% in 2023 to 15.9 million units, from 2.2% in 2024 to 16.3 million units and from 1.4% in 2025 to 16.5 million units. According to Inovev, we will not return to 2019 levels before 2030 in Europe. Globally, we will return to 2019 levels as early as 2024.
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The Top 10 by models in Russia over 10 months 2020
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The Top 10 by models in Russia over 10 months 2020
- The Russian automotive market fell 16.5% over the first 10 months of 2020, to 1.19 million light vehicles (PC + LUV) against 1.42 million units over the same period of 2019. It is in line with the world market.
- During this period, the first Russian manufacturer Lada managed to place two models in the first two places. These are the LadaGranta (97,166 sales; -10.6%) and the LadaVesta (84,317 sales; -8.1%). Both models performed better than the Russian market as a whole. Two models from the Hyundai-Kia group follow, the Kia Rio (67,940 sales; -13.0%) and the Hyundai Creta (58,786 sales; + 0%). The Volkswagen Polo (47,276 sales; + 0.3%) in fifth position, is one of the few models to progress in 2020. The Hyundai Solaris (38,142 sales; -23.5%) in sixth position, is with the Kia Rio and the Hyundai Creta the third model of the Korean group to be manufactured locally. The twenty best-selling models in Russia are all produced locally. It is one of President Putin's successes in getting automakers to produce more in Russia and getting customers to buy "Made in Russia" cars.
- By manufacturers, the Renault-Nissan group remains largely the leader of the Russian market (36% market share) thanks to the Lada brand which alone holds 21% of the Russian market, even if in the past this brand held a much larger shar. The Heyundai-Kia group is the second manufacturer, with 23% of the Russian market, ahead of the Volkswagen group (14%), the Toyota group (7%) and the two Premium manufacturers BMW (3%) and Daimler (3%).
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Inovev plans 40,000 units per year of the new Mercedes T Class
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Inovev plans 40,000 units per year of the new Mercedes T Class
- Mercedes had reached an agreement ten years ago with the Renault-Nissan group to market a light commercial vehicle derived from the Renault Kangoo and positioned in the Mercedes range under the Vito (segment N1-2) and Sprinter (segment N1- 3). This utility vehicle called Citan (segment N1-1) which succeeded the Vaneo was launched in 2012 and its production was carried out at the Maubeuge site (France) alongside the Renault Kangoo. The sales of the Mercedes Citan have never been very high as its production stabilized around 25,000 units per year before collapsing in 2020 due to falling markets.
- Due to this low sales level (Kangoo sales are about 150,000 units per year), the collaboration between Mercedes and Renault-Nissan on this type of vehicle could have been stopped, but the German manufacturer did not want to invest in the replacement. of the Citan and asked Renault-Nissan to continue its collaboration on this type of vehicle.
- The Mercedes Citan will therefore be replaced in 2021 by a rebadged version of the all-new Renault Kangoo which has just been presented. Its new name is T Class, a name which fits better into the Mercedes lineup. It will be a rival to the new Volkswagen Caddy and will take over the CMF-C / D platform from the Renault Kangoo and Mégane. Its engines will be the 1.3 liter petrol and 1.5 diesel Renault origin already known and fitted to the Renault Kangoo. But, unlike the old Citan, the new T Class will also be offered in a 100% electric version called EQT. This engine will be shared with the Renault Kangoo Z.E. The Mercedes T Class will be manufactured at the Maubeuge site, at a rate of 40,000 units per year in the long term according to Inovev.
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