Is Jaguar in danger of disappearing after 2025?
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Is Jaguar in danger of disappearing after 2025?
- Following our previous analysis on the repositioning of the Jaguar brand, we learned in November that the British carmaker was going to be "put into hibernation" until 2025, which means that the various current models of the brand (XE, XF, E-Pace, F-Pace, I-Pace and F Type) will run until the end of their lifecycle, sedans until 2022 and SUVs until 2024, before the launch of all new battery electric models (BEV) in 2025.
- There will therefore be no new model by then, the project of the future XJ (in the final phase of development) having been abandoned. The plan to share platforms with Land Rover was also abandoned.
- Jaguar now wants to target the luxury market of Bentleys and Rolls-Royces, meaning selling cars more expensive but produced in smaller quantities than current Jaguars volume. The idea would be to produce between 10,000 and 20,000 cars each year at prices above 150,000 euros, while today the price list ranges from 45,000 to 130,000 euros at the carmaker. It means that the electric I-Pace, which anticipates the future battery electric range from Jaguar, would be a far too affordable model compared to the future range, as its price does not exceed 80,000 euros.
- This ambitious strategy turns out to be risky because the hibernation of Jaguar until 2025 could turn away a large part of the brand's customers towards the competition and experience shows that it is very difficult to recover lost customers after a few years. On the other hand, it is also difficult to win over customers in a very high-end market already in the hands of traditional, well-known and well-established brands. Finally, the years 2022-2024 are likely to be difficult for the sales network, which will see its orders drop drastically.
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The Alpine brand will have a range of 4 battery battery models in 2026
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The Alpine brand will have a range of 4 battery battery models in 2026
- Alpine announced a product plan some time ago with three battery-electric models: a sedan, a crossover / SUV and a coupe replacing the Alpine A110. This plan has now been clarified and updated with the addition of a new model to the line-up.
- Therefore, we should see appear from 2022 a Mégane e-Tech (BEV) modified by Alpine (with greater power and a modified chassis but nevertheless based on the same CMF-C/D EV platform).
- In 2024 a battery electric R5 Alpine will be launched and will be a sports version derived from the future R5 (BEV) unveiled the same year under the Renault brand and equipped with the same CMF-B EV platform.
- In 2025, the first Alpine crossover/SUV should appear, also battery electric model and based on the CMF-C/D EV platform which seems to be a re-branded from the future battery electric Renault Scénic which will be unveiled in 2023.
- In 2026, a battery electric Alpine coupé will be launched succeeding to the current A110. This future sports coupe should be based on a common platform with the future Lotus Type 135 of the Geely group. This platform can be equipped with two electric motors capable of delivering a cumulative power of 650 kW or 884 hp (442 hp per engine).
- In 2026, the entire Alpine range will be 100% electric. The four Alpine models mentioned above should be produced at the historic plant of Dieppe (France).
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LUV sales have been declining in Europe since July 2021
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LUV sales have been declining in Europe since July 2021
- Sales of light utility vehicles (LUV) in Europe (29 countries including Great Britain) increased this year until June 2021 to almost matching the volume observed in 2019, as the volume for 2020 was strongly impacted by the lock-down and closures of factories and dealerships in March, April and May 2020.
- The decline in LUV sales in Europe started from July 2021, where we see a sharp drop compared to 2019 and even compared to 2020 which at that time had a beginning of recovery.
- This drop in LUV sales in Europe cannot seem to be explained solely by the shortage of semiconductor supplies, as this "crisis" did not start last July but much earlier, according to the carmakers.
- There is undoubtedly another phenomenon which is added to this problem of semiconductors. And it cannot be either the switch of the light utility vehicles market towards battery electric, as the electric motorization represents only 2% to 3 % of LUV sales in Europe in 2021. A figure much lower than what we can observe in the category of passenger cars (passenger cars) and which reached almost 10% over the first 10 months of 2021.
- Suddenly, the increase in LUV sales in Europe, which was +27.4% over the cumulative of the first 8 months of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, fell to +20.1% over the cumulative 9 first months and +15.6% on the cumulative amount of the first 10 months. At this rate, it could decline to + 10% over the cumulative amount of the first 11 months and + 5% over the complete year.
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BMW will launch the i7 sedan in 2022
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BMW will launch the i7 sedan in 2022
- The new range of BMW electric cars is being developped gradually. After the i3 launched in 2013, which was the brand's first mid-series electric car, the iX3 SUV appeared in 2020, then the iX SUV in 2021 then the i4 sedan derived from the new 4 Series. These cars start at 40,000 euros for the i3 sedan, 60,000 euros for the i4 sedan, 70,000 euros for the iX 3 SUV, 85,000 euros for the iXSUV. High prices, but the carmaker thinks there are customers who want to acquire an even more expensive electric car, sold well over 100,000 euros. This is why BMW will launch the future i7 sedan in 2022.
- It is to remind that a Mercedes EQS is marketed from 127,000 euros to 153,000 euros depending on the version. This is the price area imagined for the future battery electric Jaguars launched in 2025. BMW wants to be part of this elite market with the future i7 sedan, which is expected to exceed 120,000 euros.
- The BMW i7 will be a large sedan based on the future 7 Series (F-segment) also scheduled for 2022. It will therefore be the direct competitor of the Mercedes EQS launched in 2021 which is in the same segment as the Mercedes S Class (F-segment). The future i7 produced in Dingolfing (Germany) will be based on the CLAR platform of the BMW 3 Series, 4 Series, 5 Series, 7 Series, iX and i4.
- The power output of the i7 is expected to reach 322 hp in the four-wheel drive version, and its battery will have a capacity of 71 kWh or 105 kWh. The range would be 400 km or 600 km depending on the battery pack size.
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35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?
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35% of electric vehicles in Europe in 2030. But 35% of which market?
- In order to forecast the electrification levels of markets in Europe by 2030, Inovev has built a simulation model named "IES model", standing for "Inovev EV Simulation Model". This simulation model allows us to calculate the market shares of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) necessary for carmakers to meet the CO2 objectives set by the European Commission in 2025 and 2030. Objectives currently in renegotiation.
- However, CO2 objectives alone do not make it possible to predict the levels of European markets in 2030. To this must be added the various factors that will have an impact on buyers demand (professionals and privates) but also on society as a whole. These factors are fairly well identified today: purchase price of electric vehicles, availability of recharging infrastructure, creation of low or zero emission zones, the transition of the automotive industry, impact on jobs and the economy in general, etc ...
- It is all of these factors (C02 objectives and market demand) which are integrated into the “IES model” and which allow Inovev to establish scenarios for the future of the electric vehicle market in Europe in 2030. Thus, in the tables attached to this analysis, you will find two scenarios specific to CO2 objectives and two scenarios which take market demand into account.
- In summary, to achieve the current CO2 objectives, carmakers have to sell in Europe, in 2030, at least 40% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs (or in a second scenario 30% of BEVs and 25% of PHEVs). However, in the Inovev reference scenario, which takes all the factors into account, 35% of the European market may be made up of BEVs and PHEVs (with 25% of BEVs and 10% of PHEVs), which will, by the way, will not allow carmakers to meet the CO2 targets.
- We are therefore talking about a 35% market of BEVs and PHEVs. But 35% of which market? What will the level of the European market be in 2030? Equivalent to 2019 (before the COVID crisis)? to 2020/2021? Or even much lower?
- We talk a lot about the offer of electric vehicles from carmakers, but demand must also be taken into account. On the offer side, the carmakers' policy is always to move towards greater added value: disappearance of small vehicles, push of large vehicles, vehicles with increasingly complex (but really necessary?) functions and equipment. This choice can lead to two types of risk:
1st risk:
üA continuous increase of vehicle prices to reach a level that will no longer be accepted.
üWith the consequence of a sharp drop in the market for new vehicles.
üSome users may turn away from the car, others prefer to keep their vehicle longer.
2nd risk:
üA hole is forming in the range of European carmakers, no one producing small vehicles. This may turn out to be a royal road for the development of non-European carmakers in Europe, in particular Chinese carmakers, who do not necessarily meet the same objectives as European carmakers (search for profitability in particular).
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