The Russian market may keel over in 2014

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The Russian market may keel over in 2014

- The Russian car market reached a peak in 2012, with a volume of nearly three million light vehicles registered (2 935 000 units) but started to fall as of 2013 to 2 777 000 units, representing a decrease of 5.4% compared to the previous year.


- As for 2014, the initial forecasts of a modest reboot of the Russian market didn't last long. The first four months already suggested a decline of 4% to 5% over the whole year, but today forecasts are much more pessimistic (between -10% and -20%). The automotive market reflects the Russian economy that is experiencing a period of uncertainty with a national growth close to zero in 2014, particularly due to geopolitical unrest between Ukraine and Russia.


- The Chairman of AvtoVAZ, the largest carmaker in the country announced a possible decrease of 20% of the Russian market in 2014. According to the president of AvtoVAZ, 2014 and 2015 will be difficult for the automotive market in Russia.


- Although the context and the stakes are different, this situation is similar to what happened recently in Iran, where economic sanctions significantly worsened an already fragile situation in the country. The Iranian car market fell by more than 30% in 2013 compared to 2012, a year that had already seen its market decline by nearly 40%.

 

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New models manufactured in Europe in 2014 and 2015

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New models manufactured in Europe in 2014 and 2015

- In 2014 and 2015, European production of PCs (including Russia, Turkey and Ukraine) will reach, respectively 17.8 million units and 18.7 million units. In addition to the models produced at a standard pace , thirty new models launched each year in 2014 and 2015 will help in reaching the expected growth of 5%. It is therefore interesting to analyse which countries and which manufacturers launch these models, and in which body segments they will be manufactured.

- Germany and Spain, with 7 new manufactured models are the two countries that will launch the largest number of new vehicles in 2014, slightly ahead of the Czech Republic (4 new models). Spain therefore confirms growth of its production, while the Czech Republic benefits from the renewal of Toyota Aygo/Peugeot 107/Citroën C1. In 2015, the UK will benefit from a good momentum with the launch of 8 new models. France will remain constant in 2014 and 2015, with the launch of two new models each year. However, the analysis of group nationality shows that Germany (VW-BMW-Daimler) and France (Renault-Nissan and PSA) remain the two main carmakers in Europe.

- By group, Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan are the most dynamic while Fiat-Chrysler will keep a relatively low profile in 2014 and 2015 (2 new vehicles each year). It should be noted that PSA and GM have not planned any new vehicles in 2015.

- By segment, in 2014 the C segment (10 new vehicles) and B segment (9 new vehicles) are the most present. Surprisingly, in 2015, it's inside segment D that most of the models will be launched (8 models from which 6 sedans) in a European market where mainstream manufacturers are increasingly abandoning this segment. By bodywork, despite the increase in SUVs and Crossovers, the first place is still held by sedans that will be the most produced bodywork in 2014 and 2015.

- Finally, 2014 will see the restyling of many models (19 including 4 Audi, 3 Ford, 3 BMW and 3 VW) while the year 2015 will be rather weak (5 restyled models). 

 

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Recent models launched in China in 2014 and 2015

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Recent models launched in China in 2014 and 2015

- The 2014 edition of the Beijing auto show was a great opportunity to review the models announced for the Chinese market in 2014, 2015 and even 2016 for some brands. Beyond concept cars, it is interesting to analyze which manufacturers are present, which segments and bodies have Chinese and non-Chinese carmakers  chosen to position themselves on, and especially by what date will these models be launched.


- The first observation is that among the sixty "major and realistic" models announced at the show, 70% are from Chinese manufacturers although they currently account for "only" 30% of the local market. Ten non-Chinese brands are present while the number of Chinese brands is almost 3 times higher.


- The second observation is that the most represented segments are segments C and D (21 models each) followed by segment B (11 models) in a current market dominated by C and D segments.


- The Chinese market has had a sharp increase in SUV sales (19% market share in 2013). This trend has been confirmed by the models that will be launched in coming years, since a third of the cars presented are SUVs. It should be noted that non-Chinese manufacturers have planned to launch only SUVs and sedans, and will be launching no MPVs, Crossovers or Pick-ups.


- Finally, a third of the vehicles presented will be launched on the Chinese market in the second half of 2014, while nearly 15 models will be introduced to the market in 2015 and 2016.

 

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U.S. exports grew in 2013

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U.S. exports grew in 2013

- While the US car market reached 15.6 million sales last year (levels close to those of 2007) and that US production has exceeded 11 million units (levels close to those of 2006), exports have also been growing constantly since the 2008-2009 crisis. 


- For the first time in over 10 years theUSA exported more than 2 million vehicles in 2013 (PC+LCV). Starting at 1.06 million units in 2009 to over 2 million units in 2013. US exports have hence doubled in four years. These levels are still under those of Mexico (2.4 million vehicles exported in 2013).


- Back in 2004, Mexico and Canada accounted for 80% of US exports, by 2013  this figure dropped to 50%.  Exports towards Germany and mainly Saudi Arabia and China are increasing rapidly. 


- Over half of the 2 million vehicles exported from the US in 2013 originated from the Big Three (GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler). Followed by Japanese carmakers (500 000 units), European carmakers (300 000 units) and Korean carmakers (100 000 units).

 

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PSA is going to transfer the production of the next generation Citroën C3 to Slovakia

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PSA is going to transfer the production of the next generation Citroën C3 to Slovakia

- We saw last February (AutoAnalyses 2014-06) that PSA had decided to produce its B-segment models in countries with low cost labour such as in Eastern Europe.

- Thus the Peugeot 208 are gradually being transferred from the French Poissy plant to the Slovak plant of Trnava. The initial 50/50 proportion is evolving in 2014 towards a 30/70 proportion, and could reach a 20/80 proportion in 2015.

- This week, PSA has decided to pursue this relocation strategy by transferring the future Citroën C3 (launched in 2016) from Poissy to Trnava.

- This transfer was made possible thanks to the decision to transfer the Citroën C3 Picasso from Trnava to the GM plant of Zaragoza, Spain. However, the production capacity of 300 000 vehicles per year in Trnava seems a bit tight if you add up the the production units of the Peugeot 208 and Citroen C3. Hence, it may be increased to 350 000 or 400 000 vehicles per year in 2016.

- The Poissy plant will produce the Peugeot 208 premium and the future DS 3 (launch date : 2017) which will be available in 3 and 5 door versions, its production volume will be doubled compared to the current version. In short, Poissy could produce 200 000 cars per year in the coming years.

 

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  1. German manufacturers are strengthening their positions in China
  2. Japan exported 540 000 vehicles to other Asian countries in 2013
  3. GM will stop selling Opel cars in China from 2015
  4. In 2013 the Vietnamese market is growing again
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